747
FXUS63 KDLH 051455
AFDDLH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Duluth MN
955 AM CDT Sun Oct 5 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Warm and windy today with some showers/storms. Elevated fire
  weather conditions are expected.

- Cooler temperatures arrive Monday with frost possible Monday
  night and likely Tuesday night.

- Warming temperatures with mostly dry weather but a few
  intermittent rain chances late-week into next weekend.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 953 AM CDT Sun Oct 5 2025

Updated Marine Discussion below.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 348 AM CDT Sun Oct 5 2025

Most places are seeing quiet weather early this morning, though a
few convective showers are affecting north-central Minnesota. These
are expected to move north in the next hour or two.

Strong warm air advection will keep warm air around today with
highs around 80 for most places. A tight pressure gradient ahead
of a cold front, which is expected to pass through this
afternoon and early evening, will create some strong winds
today. Southerly winds around 15-25 mph gusting to 30-40 mph are
expected. Probabilities for wind gusts 45 mph or greater are
generally less than 50%, so wind advisories have not been
issued. With that said, some localized gusts to around 45 mph
can be expected, and if observations this morning end up being a
bit stronger than forecast, some wind advisories may be needed.
The combination of strong winds, min RH down to around 40%, and
drying fuels will create elevated fire weather conditions today
as well.

As the cold front passes through this afternoon, some showers
and thunderstorms are expected to develop along and in the
vicinity of the front. CAPE doesn`t look impressive enough for
any strong/severe storms, but some locally enhanced winds around
storms may be possible. Most of this rain should exit to the
east this evening with amounts up to a tenth of an inch or two
on the high end, mainly in northwest Wisconsin. A spotty shower
or two could linger into tonight, but the main story will be
winds switching over to the west/northwest after the front
passes through and temperatures quickly cooling off.

Temperatures will be ~15-20 degrees cooler on Monday with highs
in the 50s and 60s. Dry air will move in along with high
pressure. Areas of frost will be possible Monday night for the
usual inland areas especially. Widespread frost and below
freezing temperatures are expected Tuesday night with anywhere
from 30-80% chances for temperatures to fall below freezing for
pretty much everywhere except within a few miles of Lake
Superior.

Ridging is expected to develop across the west around mid-week
and spread into our region later this week. A warm air advection
regime with southerly flow is looking likely starting Wednesday.
Temperatures are expected to moderate a bit for the later part
of the week. A passing shortwave Thursday into Thursday night
could bring some light rain chances. Next weekend is looking
mild with the possibility for some rain as early as Sunday.
There may be a cold front early next week that could drop
temperatures again, in true fall fashion.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY/...
Issued at 649 AM CDT Sun Oct 5 2025

LLWS is expected to persist another 1 to 4 hours, then gusty
winds from 25 to 35 kt, occasionally approaching 40 kt, are
expected from the south to southwest through the day. A gradual
wind shift is expected later this afternoon and evening as a
cold front passes through. Showers and possibly a few
thunderstorms are possible along and in the vicinity of the
front. Thunder will be most likely at HYR this afternoon (~30%
chance). Some MVFR ceilings are possible along and behind the
frontal passage, mainly at INL late this afternoon and evening.
Winds become west to northwesterly this evening, and speeds will
gradually decrease. LLWS is not expected after it ends later
this morning.

&&

.MARINE /FOR NEAR SHORE WATERS OF WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR/...
Issued at 950 AM CDT Sun Oct 5 2025

Update: Some slight adjustments were made to the time of the
Gale Warnings given winds on the lake ramping up slightly
slower than previously forecast. The Gale Warnings now start at
Noon CDT today and most of them end at 10 PM CDT this evening.
However, the 35 kt gusts hold on a bit longer from Grand Marais
to Grand Portage this evening, so the Gale Warning there was
extended until 1 AM CDT tonight.

Previous Discussion: Southwest winds will continue to
strengthen today. Gale Watches have been replaced with Gale
Warnings for most zones. Sand Island to Bayfield to Chequamegon
Bay to Saxon Harbor have been replaced with Small Craft
Advisories as winds are expected to be a little lighter there.
There is still a small chance that some brief wind gusts to 35
kt could be possible this afternoon around Saxon Harbor. If
winds trend upward, an upgrade to a Gale Warning may be needed
there.

Winds become westerly this evening as a cold front passes
through. The front may bring some scattered showers and storms
(20-40% chance). Gusty winds and high wave heights will persist
through tonight, but lighten up by morning. Gusts should remain
at or below 20 kt for Monday. Late Monday night into Tuesday
morning, some locally stronger wind gusts to 25 kt may be
possible around Grand Marais, which could create hazardous
conditions for small craft.

For the open water discussion, refer to the NWS Marquette Area
Forecast Discussion at weather.gov/mqt.

&&

.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...None.
WI...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 4 AM CDT Monday for LSZ121-147-148.
     Small Craft Advisory until noon CDT today for LSZ140>146-150.
     Gale Warning until midnight CDT tonight for LSZ140.
     Gale Warning until 10 PM CDT this evening for LSZ141>146-150.

&&

$$

UPDATE...Rothstein
DISCUSSION...JDS
AVIATION...JDS
MARINE...Rothstein