940
FXUS63 KDLH 222320
AFDDLH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Duluth MN
620 PM CDT Wed Jul 22 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Drier with seasonable temperatures today, then gradually
  warming up again and becoming hot this weekend. Heat
  Advisories may be needed for portions of the Northland
  Saturday through Monday.

- Breezy winds, fairly low relative humidity, and hot conditions
  could lead to elevated fire weather conditions for portions of
  the area on Friday into this weekend.

- A few areas of storms possible for the end of the work week
  into the weekend. Some strong to severe thunderstorms are
  possible at times, including late Friday afternoon into Friday
  night when there is a Level 1 out of 5 severe weather risk for
  large hail in north-central Minnesota.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 222 PM CDT Wed Jul 22 2026

Rest of Today - Tonight:

Despite high pressure over the region today, partly cloudy to
mostly cloudy skies persist across much of the Northland this
afternoon into early evening, with the highest coverage in the
Arrowhead and northwest Wisconsin. High temperatures this
afternoon top out in the low to upper 70s along with dry
conditions. Winds become calm to light tonight with comfortable
low temperatures in the upper 40s in north-central Wisconsin to
50s elsewhere. Some hazy skies return starting tonight for
portions of the area as wildfire smoke from out west inches back
into the Northland.

Late this Week - Early Next Week:

The upper-level pattern across the CONUS remains amplified late
this week into early next week as a mid/upper-level ridge axis
over the western CONUS broadens and general troughing occurs
over eastern Canada and the eastern CONUS. This pattern will
leave the Upper Midwest in general northwest flow aloft, through
which periodic shortwave troughs traversing the flow will
produce shower and thunderstorm chances at times for portions of
the Northland.

The first round of precipitation would be a 10-20% chance in
far northern Minnesota near the International Border for
isolated showers Thursday morning, but a slightly better chance
(20-30%) for isolated showers/non-severe storms Thursday
afternoon and evening. The area of rain potential has been
trending slightly farther north. Very limited rainfall amounts
are expected with this first round, mostly 0.10" or less unless
a thunderstorm moves through, in which case very localized
amounts to 0.25" cannot be ruled out.

The best rain chances (30-90%; highest for the Iron Range,
Arrowhead, and areas north) would be with a second shortwave
trough and attendant surface cold front late Friday afternoon
into Saturday morning. Forecast rainfall amounts with these
scattered showers and thunderstorms are mostly 0.2-0.5" north of
the Iron Range, 0.1-0.2" for the Iron Range, and 0.1" or less
south of the Iron Range. The probabilities for localized amounts
>0.5" are only 20-40% in far northern Minnesota. Strong to
severe storms (Level 1 out of 5) are possible along and near the
cold front in north-central Minnesota late Friday afternoon into
Friday night with instability (MUCAPE 1000-1500 J/kg) and deep
shear profiles (35-50 kt) favoring elevated supercell structures.
as there may be some weak capping that hangs around. If storms
stay elevated, this would favor large hail (up to quarter to
ping pong ball size) as the primary severe threat, though a
secondary threat of damaging wind gusts to 60 mph couldn`t be
ruled out if the storms can become surface based.

Depending on how quickly the cold front moves southeast through
the Northland on Saturday, there is a lower chance (10-20%)
that storms could redevelop Saturday afternoon along and ahead
of the cold front in portions of northwest Wisconsin and be
capable of strong to severe storms with large hail and damaging
winds as the main threat. However, the forecast trend with this
cold front has been speeding up its exit to the east of
northwest Wisconsin Saturday afternoon, so the more likely
scenario is that storms do not occur at all there Saturday PM.

There are additional, sporadic shower and thunderstorm chances
(10-40%) for Sunday into Monday, but confidence remains low
regarding location and precipitation potential due to
uncertainty in how far south any shortwave troughs rounding the
top of the mid/upper-level ridge can get into the Northland and
model soundings showing a fairly stout capping inversion for
most of the Northland both days. Should the area become
uncapped, both Sunday and Monday could see conditional, low-
confidence strong to severe storm potential. Overall, the
synoptic pattern through at least early next week does not favor any
notable, widespread precipitation.

Hot conditions and potential Heat Advisories for portions of
the Northland return by this weekend into early next week. High
temperatures gradually warm from the low to mid 80s on Thursday
to mid-80s to low 90s on Saturday through Monday, though onshore
flow/lake breeze on Sunday would likely keep the hottest
conditions away from Lake Superior and the Arrowhead. These
hotter conditions combined with fairly low relative humidity and
breezy conditions at times could lead to a return of elevated
fire conditions for Friday into early next week.

Beyond Early Next Week:

Warmer than normal temperatures are favored for the end of July
into very early August, as well. This is highlighted by the CPC
8-14 day temperature outlooks and ensemble guidance, mainly due
to persistence of the mid/upper-level ridge over the western to
central CONUS.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY/...
Issued at 620 PM CDT Wed Jul 22 2026

Scattered, diurnal cumulus with bases at 6 to 7 kft as of
issuance time to slowly decrease in coverage this evening,
leaving us with clear to mostly clear skies overnight tonight.
Some smoke begins to work back into the region from the west
starting tonight, but no reductions in visibility are expected.
Another day of deeper low-level mixing and VFR conditions
expected for Thursday. There is a 10-20% chance for a few
showers near KINL roughly 11-15Z Thursday morning, but better
potential stays north of the International Border until Thursday
afternoon/evening when additional isolated showers and storms
(10-30% chance) are once again possible near KINL and far
northern Minnesota near the International Border. Northwest to
west winds becoming light and variable to calm tonight. Winds
increase out of the southwest on Thursday with daytime gusts of
14-18 kt, strongest in the afternoon in northern Minnesota.

&&

.MARINE /FOR NEARSHORE WATERS OF WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR/...
Issued at 222 PM CDT Wed Jul 22 2026

No additional changes were made to the Small Craft Advisory for
Taconite Harbor to Grand Portage for mid-afternoon into
evening with southwest winds up to 20-25 kt along with 1 to 3
foot waves. Southwest winds decrease to 5 to 15 knots tonight,
then gusts pick back up to 15 to 25 knots for daytime Thursday,
the strongest of which are favored in the Outer Apostle Islands
and Silver Bay to Grand Portage along with 3 to 4 ft waves near
Grand Portage. Additional Small Craft Advisories will likely be
needed. Stronger southwest winds develop for Friday Saturday
morning across much of western Lake Superior nearshore waters,
likely leading to more hazardous conditions for small craft.
There is a 20-30% chance for gale-force winds near Grand Portage
Friday night as well as scattered thunderstorms, with the main
storm threat being cloud-to-water lightning.

For the open water discussion, refer to the NWS Marquette Area
Forecast Discussion at weather.gov/mqt.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 222 PM CDT Wed Jul 22 2026

High pressure the rest of today and tonight keeps conditions
rain-free conditions with afternoon highs in the 70s and minimum
RH values of 30 to 40% along with partly to mostly cloudy skies
with mixing heights of 5000-7000 ft. RH recovers to 80-95%
across most of the Northland tonight.

There is a 10-20% chance for isolated showers Thursday morning
in far northern Minnesota near the International Border and a
20-30% chance for a few showers and general thunderstorms in the
same area Thursday afternoon and evening. Precipitation amounts
will be 0.10 inches or less, though very localized amounts to
0.25" cannot be ruled out for anywhere that a thunderstorm moves
overhead. Minimum RH on Thursday again dips to 30 to 40%
along with high temperatures in the low to mid 80s and southwest
winds of 5-10 mph with daytime gusts of 15-20 mph. RH recovers
above 75-80% again Thursday night.

A cold front late Friday into early Saturday brings better
precipitation chances (30-90%, highest along and north of the
Iron Range). Forecast rainfall amounts with these
scattered showers and thunderstorms are mostly 0.2-0.5" north of
the Iron Range, 0.1-0.2" for the Iron Range, and 0.1" or less
south of the Iron Range. The probabilities for localized amounts
>0.5" are only 20-40% in far northern Minnesota. Portions of
north-central Minnesota could also see a few strong to severe
storms with large hail and frequent lightning late Friday and
Friday night. Otherwise, no significant rain chances are
expected through this weekend into early next week. Temperatures
warm back into the 80s and 90s for the weekend into Monday with
breezy conditions possible both Friday and Saturday that, when
combined with the heat and fairly low RH of 35-45% for much of
the Northland, could bring about a return of elevated fire
weather conditions.

See the Fire Weather Forecast product for a more thorough
breakdown of fire weather conditions.

&&

.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...None.
WI...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 10 PM CDT this evening for LSZ140-
     141.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Rothstein
AVIATION...LE
MARINE...Rothstein
FIRE WEATHER...Rothstein