999
FXUS63 KDLH 072032
AFDDLH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Duluth MN
332 PM CDT Sat Jun 7 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Isolated showers and a few thunderstorms this afternoon before
  better and more widespread chances for rainfall overnight.

- Showers linger into the new week along with below normal
  temperatures.

- Additional rainfall chances through the week along with
  warming temperatures.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 332 PM CDT Sat Jun 7 2025

High pressure was located over eastern Lake Superior and
extended to the southwest into the Central Plains. An area of
low pressure over northern Manitoba trailed a cold front
southward into North Dakota. Southerly winds on the backside of
the high and ahead of the cold front are advecting moisture into
the Northland. Coupled with daytime heating, this is leading to
the development is isolated showers and thunderstorms. This
activity will mainly be from the Brainerd Lakes area eastward
into northwest Wisconsin. Weak shear and a warm nose aloft will
keep storms from strengthening and keep them as more of the
popcorn variety. There may be a brief break in activity during
the evening before the cold front arrives from the west with
better forcing. Forecast soundings feature long, skinny CAPE
profiles that are indicative of efficient rainfall processes
despite slightly better shear. As such, not expecting any strong
or severe storms overnight, but storms could quickly drop a half
inch plus of rainfall in spots before moving eastward. This line
should exit the area by mid-morning.

An upper low associated with this system will drop out of the
Canadian Prairies for Sunday into Monday. With cooler air
filtering in and daytime heating, showers will remain possible
each day with some embedded rumbles of thunder at times.
Activity will diminish overnight, but may not end completely.
Highs Sunday will be in the 60s with some 70s across
northwestern Wisconsin before cooling into the 60s for all for
Monday, which will be around 5 to 10 degrees below normal.

A few showers may linger into Tuesday as the low finally
departs. Quasi-zonal flow will persist through the week and into
the weekend, and keep chances for rainfall in place through much
of the week. The main storm track looks to remain to the south,
but overall models are in poor agreement for the mid to late
week period. This time period will likely not be a washout with
more dry times than wet. Temperatures will warm back to neat to
slightly above normal levels for the remainder of the week with
highs in the 70s Wednesday and Thursday before cooling slightly
back to near normal to end the week.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY/...
Issued at 1255 PM CDT Sat Jun 7 2025

VFR conditions prevail across the region early this afternoon.
Increasing moisture will lead to isolated to scattered showers
and perhaps a few thunderstorms this afternoon, mainly at BRD,
DLH and HYR. Confidence on the coverage of this activity is low.
A cold front will then work across the region overnight with a
line of showers and thunderstorms expected with the front. Most
of this activity should be through by sunrise, but may linger a
bit longer at HYR. MVFR visibilities and ceilings are expected
with these showers and storms. No strong or severe storms are
expected, but winds will shift from southerly to northwesterly
as the front passes. Additional showers and storms will be
possible Sunday, but may hold off until after 18z before
developing.

&&

.MARINE /FOR NEAR SHORE WATERS OF WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR/...
Issued at 332 PM CDT Sat Jun 7 2025

Easterly winds of 5 to 15 knots will persist into this evening
before a cold front moves through overnight and turn winds
southwesterly. Showers and thunderstorms will accompany this
front, but no strong or severe storms are expected. Still, a few
gusts to around 30 knots can not be ruled out in any storms. The
southwesterly winds will continue for Sunday at 5 to 15 knots
with gusts to 20 knots at times in the western arm. Winds then
become more westerly to northwesterly for Sunday night and
Monday at 5 to 10 knots.

For the open water discussion, refer to the NWS Marquette Area
Forecast Discussion at weather.gov/mqt.

&&

.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...None.
WI...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...BJH
AVIATION...BJH
MARINE...BJH