783
FXUS63 KDLH 112328
AFDDLH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Duluth MN
528 PM CST Tue Nov 11 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- A chance for a wintry mix in the Arrowhead and north-central
  WI this afternoon and tonight. Snow accumulations through
  tonight are expected to be 0.5" or less.

- A dry pattern settles over the region starting tomorrow for
  the remainder of the workweek. Temperatures will become
  unseasonably warm, with highs reaching the mid 40s to low 50s
  for most by Friday.

- The next chance for precipitation arrives this weekend ahead
  of a cold front with precipitation type likely to be rain.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 346 PM CST Tue Nov 11 2025

We have a chance for a wintry mix this afternoon and tonight as
a shortwave moves across Ontario. In the wake of this system,
we should have an area of lingering stratus this evening.
Beneath the stratus, there may be some light precipitation, as
wintry mixture. Ptype is going to be a bit tricky as there are
some hints we may lose ice aloft, which would produce freezing
drizzle instead of a simpler rain/snow mixture. Have stuck to
the rain/snow mix for now, but we may need to make adjustments
later this evening.

A quiet pattern is expected to settle over the CWA for the
remainder of the workweek. A ridge building over the central
CONUS will bring warmer temperatures to the area, with high
temps on Friday and Saturday in the mid 40s to mid 50s. The next
best chance for precip is still on track to arrive this weekend
as a cold front sweeps through the CWA, with p-type most likely
being rain. Early indications show that thunderstorms may occur
on Saturday afternoon in the warm sector ahead of the cold
front, but the potential is very low at this time (<10% chance).

Another period of generally quiet weather is expected early
next week with another ridge of high pressure building into the
area. Temperatures cool back off to near normal values, with
highs in the 30s to around 40 and overnight lows in the 20s.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY/...
Issued at 527 PM CST Tue Nov 11 2025

Satellite and radar shows some MVFR ceilings rotating across the
region this evening with some isolated showers. Farther west
clearing skies can be seen eating away at the cloud deck as they
continue to encroach on the Northland. An overall improving trend is
expected through the overnight hours with sky conditions clearing
west to east. There is a weak signal for some freezing drizzle
possible at INL tomorrow morning but will leave it out of the TAF
for now and see how models trend. Tomorrow expect some wind gusts
around 20 kts out of the northwest.

&&

.MARINE /FOR NEAR SHORE WATERS OF WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR/...
Issued at 346 PM CST Tue Nov 11 2025

Westerly winds of 10 to 15 knots with gusts of 20 to 30 knots
today will gradually veer to the northwest tonight. The
strongest wind gusts will be over the open waters and around the
Apostle islands tonight, where waves will build to 4 to 6 feet.
Winds will increase still further on Wednesday, there will be a
10-30% chance for a few gale force gusts from Grand Marais to
Grand Portage and in the Outer Apostle Islands. A Small Craft
Advisory is in effect for all of western Lake Superior through
Wednesday evening. Winds will slowly diminish Wednesday night
with northwesterly winds of 5 to 15 knots expected for Thursday.

For the open water discussion, refer to the NWS Marquette Area
Forecast Discussion at weather.gov/mqt.

&&

.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...None.
WI...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until midnight CST Wednesday night for
     LSZ121-141>148.
     Small Craft Advisory until 6 AM CST Thursday for LSZ140-150.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...LE
AVIATION...Britt
MARINE...LE