894
FXUS63 KDLH 020526
AFDDLH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Duluth MN
1226 AM CDT Sat Aug 2 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- High pressure and smoke lingers over the Northland, expected
  to remain until early next week.

- Slight precipitation chances return as early as Sunday, but
  widespread precipitation is not expected until at least mid
  week.

- Hot air mass will cause temperatures in the mid to upper 80s
  towards late week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 1241 PM CDT Fri Aug 1 2025

High pressure over the Northland is leading to quiet weather
that is expected to persist through most of the weekend. Smoke
within the airmass will also linger as long as the high pressure
does, at least aloft. Other than the smoke, skies will be mostly
clear with light winds and temperatures around normal in the mid
to upper 70s. Smoke at the surface is reducing visibility, as
well as lowering air quality across the Upper Midwest. Air
Quality Alerts are in effect until tomorrow. Minnesota
Pollution Control Agency has maintained an Air Quality Alert
through 5 PM Saturday and the Wisconsin DNR has continued the
Air Quality Alert through noon Saturday. For more details, visit
https:/airquality.wi.gov for Wisconsin or
https:/www.pca.state.mn.us/air-water-land-climate/air-quality-
and-health for Minnesota.

Early Sunday, flow will switch to the south, which will slowly
cause the smoke to move back north into Canada. Off to the west,
a few shortwaves may lead to some diurnal convection through the
early work week. While most of it is expected to stay over
northwest Minnesota, some storms could make it as far east as
the Brainerd Lakes area north near International Falls. There
will be minimal amounts of CAPE and shear for these storms, and
no severe weather is expected.

Late Tuesday, a more organized upper level low will move east
towards the Northland. A warm front ahead of a hot air mass
combined with a shortwave aloft will lead to more widespread
chances for showers and storms Wednesday and Thursday. Like
the last few storm systems, instability is plenty (>2000 J/kg)
and wind shear is modest to good (25-35 kts), but a warm nose
cap will be in place as well from the WAA aloft. Severe storms
may be possible, depending on whether that cap is able to be
broken. Chances for showers and storms continue after Thursday,
but model solutions start to diverge on placement and timing of
storms.

Additionally with the hot air mass, once again we will see high
temperatures climb into the mid 80s with higher heat indices,
especially across our south, Thursday and Friday. A maximum
heat index up to 90 is possible in these areas. Will have to
keep an eye on the possibility of any Heat Advisories for the
end of the week.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY/...
Issued at 1226 AM CDT Sat Aug 2 2025

Smoke continues to be the primary concern across the Northland.
Terminals across the region can expect reduced visibilities due to a
mixture of both fog and smoke overnight. While visibilities are
expected to improve after sunrise smoke is expected to linger and
continue to produce reductions. Skies will be thick with a smoke
haze through the period.

&&

.MARINE /FOR NEAR SHORE WATERS OF WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR/...
Issued at 1241 PM CDT Fri Aug 1 2025

Winds will remain out of the southwest for the next couple days.
Most of the near shore waters should see winds below 15 kts, but
some areas of the far North Shore could see wind gusts up to 20
kts. Waves will also remain under a foot except where the
highest wind gusts will be along the North Shore. Smokey
conditions are expected to linger through the weekend.

For the open water discussion, refer to the NWS Marquette Area
Forecast Discussion at weather.gov/mqt.

&&

.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...None.
WI...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...KML
AVIATION...Britt
MARINE...KML