509
FXUS63 KDLH 071230
AFDDLH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Duluth MN
630 AM CST Fri Nov 7 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Lingering light rain/snow in northern MN and the Arrowhead
  this morning. Additional accumulations a few tenths of an
  inch or less.

- Colder weather moves for today through the weekend. Light
  snow/rain showers are possible at times.

- Light lake-effect snow along the South Shore later this
  morning into this evening. Another round of lake-effect snow
  again late Saturday into early Monday, with a few inches of
  snow accumulation possible in the higher terrain of Ashland
  and Iron counties.

- Temperatures turn a bit more mild again next week. Occasional
  light rain showers/flurries are possible at times.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 420 AM CST Fri Nov 7 2025

Today - Tonight:

Early this morning, an Alberta Clipper is centered over
northwest WI/South Shore with a cold front extending westward
through north-central MN into North Dakota. Most precipitation
associated with this system has been along and north of the
international border--though there has been some light rain and
snow at times in the Arrowhead--or farther to our west in North
Dakota. As the clipper moves east of the Northland today, the
cold front will sag south through the area bringing some
isolated to scattered light rain/snow to northern Minnesota this
morning in the wake of the front with a secondary upper-level
trough. Little in the way of additional accumulations are
expected (a few tenths of an inch of spotty snow accumulations
at best in the Arrowhead and near the international border).
Some rain/snow mix also moves into northwest WI late this
morning and afternoon, gradually becoming all snow this evening.
This will primarily be in the form of light lake-effect snow
along the South Shore due to sfc-850 mb temperature differences
around 13C-15C. Accumulations should be minimal for most
locations, though portions of the higher terrain of central
Ashland to northern Iron county could pick up amounts of 0.5-1"
of snow. Drier air moving in tonight should cut off the lake-
effect snow at that time.

Temperatures will be several degrees cooler than yesterday, with
highs in the mid 30s north to low/mid 40s south, though lows dip
into the teens to mid 20s tonight.

Saturday - Early Monday:

Most of Saturday should be dry as another clipper system and
associated low pressure system pass through the Dakotas and into
Iowa, keeping precipitation southwest of the Northland.
However, a closed upper-level low churning over James Bay will
drop some shortwave energy south through the Northland Saturday
night into Sunday, brining scattered light snow showers to areas
mainly along and north of US-2 in MN and to most of northwest
WI. Expect minimal accumulations with this snowfall, though very
cold 850 mb temperatures of -10C to -14C could lead to some
lighter snow accumulations downwind (i.e. south to southeast)
of larger Minnesota lakes due to favorable lake-effect snow
conditions. These cold 850 mb temperatures will also favor the
development of lake-effect snow showers for the South Shore due
to forecast lake-induced instability up to 400-600 J/kg, and
terrain enhancement in the Gogebic and Penokee Ranges. While the
airmass will be relatively dry, the Sunday morning timeframe
appears to be the best time for lake instability to overlap with
synoptic forcing for ascent to bump up snow rates during that
timeframe. As a result, roughly 2-4" of snowfall are favored for
the higher terrain of Ashland and northern Iron Counties from
late Saturday through Monday morning, with a 60-95% chance for
2+ inches. Probabilities for these same areas drop to 30-60% for
6+ inches of snowfall. Snow totals will depend on how robust
snow rates can get Sunday morning and how quickly drier air
works into the South Shore on daytime Sunday.

Temperatures will also be below average this weekend into
Monday, with highs in the upper 20s to 30s and lows in the
teens to around 20F. Most locations on Sunday may not even get
above freezing for high temperatures.

Next Week:

South Shore lake-effect snow should largely diminish Monday PM
as less cold 850 mb temperatures move back into the region. We
do remain in a general northwest flow pattern aloft through much
of next week, with periodic weaker shortwaves/clippers passing
through the Upper Midwest next week as an upper-level ridge
develops over the western CONUS. Therefore, expect 10-30%
chances for off-and-on light rain and perhaps flurries at times
next week as high temperatures trend closer to normal for mid-
November in the mid-30s to mid-40s.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY/...
Issued at 605 AM CST Fri Nov 7 2025

An area of scattered light snow at INL and near the
International border as of 12Z will gradually shift south
through northeast Minnesota this morning behind a surface cold
front, mixing with rain as it does. Some of this rain/snow mix
may periodically impact HIB and DLH this morning, but confidence
in direct impacts to the terminals are low. Little to no
accumulations or visibility reductions are expected, as well.
MVFR to IFR ceilings sweep through from north to south today as
the front sags south, with ceilings gradually improving to VFR
for most terminals this evening. Cold air behind the front
should produce lake-effect showers along the South Shore of Lake
Superior starting as rain later this morning and then changing
over to a rain/snow mix this afternoon into evening. The best
coverage of the showers should stay north of HYR, but may impact
the terminal at times, especially this afternoon into early
evening. Therefore, HYR should see MVFR ceilings hang around a
bit longer, possibly until around 06Z tonight.

Northwesterly to northerly winds behind the cold front through
the end of the TAF period, with gusts up to 15-20 kt this
morning and afternoon becoming light this evening and tonight.

&&

.MARINE /FOR NEAR SHORE WATERS OF WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR/...
Issued at 420 AM CST Fri Nov 7 2025

Some light rain mixed with light snow at times will move north
to south today, ending along the South Shore later this evening.
Low pressure moving east today will also turn winds to northerly
today, with daytime gusts of 20-30 kt strongest from Grand
Marais to Grand Portage and in the Outer Apostle Islands through
mid-afternoon before weakening heading into tonight and early
Saturday. Waves today should also pick up to 4-7 feet for most
of the South Shore, strongest in the Outer Apostles and areas
east. Small Craft Advisories have been issued for all nearshore
waters besides Two Harbors to the Twin Ports to Port Wing for
today, with the Advisories lingering in the Outer Apostles to
Saxon Harbor this evening for waves.

Winds will be out of the northwest this weekend, though weaker
for most of Saturday. Winds increase again Saturday evening into
Monday morning as another low pressure system passes through. Small
Craft Advisories may be needed once again Saturday evening through
Monday morning. This weekend system will also bring light snow
to much of western Lake Superior and lake-effect snow along the
South Shore late Saturday through early Monday, so expect some
reductions to visibility at times due to the snowfall.

For the open water discussion, refer to the NWS Marquette Area
Forecast Discussion at weather.gov/mqt.

&&

.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...None.
WI...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 3 PM CST this afternoon for LSZ121-
     141>143-146-147.
     Small Craft Advisory until 6 PM CST this evening for LSZ140.
     Small Craft Advisory until midnight CST tonight for LSZ148-150.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Rothstein
AVIATION...Rothstein
MARINE...Rothstein