Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Duluth, MN
Issued by NWS Duluth, MN
Versions:
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
19
20
21
22
23
24
25
26
27
28
29
30
31
32
33
34
35
36
37
38
39
40
41
42
43
44
613 FXUS63 KDLH 220343 AFDDLH Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Duluth MN 943 PM CST Thu Nov 21 2024 .KEY MESSAGES... - Strong and gusty north and northwest winds persist along the North Shore tonight. - High pressure will bring dry and cool conditions for Friday and Saturday. - Light snow chances return Sunday night into Monday as a clipper moves through the region. Chances for snow are expected next week as temperatures dip below normal. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 454 PM CST Thu Nov 21 2024 Cold cyclonic flow will persist over the Northland tonight and Friday. Ample low-level moisture remains in place and upstream over Ontario and west over the Dakotas. Look for cloudy skies to linger. Strong cross-terrain flow over the Sawtooth Mountains and farther southwest toward Silver Bay will keep gusty winds cranking through the evening. We extended the Wind Advisory for the lakeshore portions of Lake and Cook counties until 10 PM. The strongest gusts will likely be found from Taconite Harbor to Grand Marais. Lake-effect showers will persist overnight and gradually taper to flurries and sprinkles. Negligible snow accumulations are expected, less than half an inch. Temperatures overnight will bottom out in the middle 20s over central and north-central MN to the middle 30s over north-central Wisconsin. Temperatures trend cooler Friday and Saturday, though still above normal. Ridging aloft will attempt to erode the cloud cover as high pressure builds at the surface. The low altitude of the cloud layer may make that difficult. Think there will be some breaks in the clouds while mostly cloudy skies dominate the pattern. Another shortwave trough will move into the region late in the weekend into Monday and will bring a chance of light snow to the Northland. As of this afternoon, accumulations look light, generally less than 2 inches. Moisture with that system will be limited to what crosses the northern Rockies. There will also be some terrain and lake enhancement along the North Shore particularly Monday morning and early afternoon. A progressive upper-level pattern will continue through next week with a few additional chances of light snow. && .AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY/... Issued at 545 PM CST Thu Nov 21 2024 MVFR ceilings are expected to be prevalent tonight, with most terminals dropping to IFR after a few hours. There is some inconsistency between observations and timing out lowering ceilings to IFR, as many models suggest that ceilings should already be IFR at some places where they are MVFR currently. Therefore, I delayed the drop to IFR by a few hours this evening, but expect that IFR ceilings will eventually develop everywhere. There may be some embedded light precipitation in the form of light drizzle or flurries this evening as well, but visibility is expected to remain VFR. Surface high pressure approaches on Friday, but an inversion aloft is expected to keep the low clouds and moisture around through the morning and afternoon for most places. DLH may see some afternoon partial clearing with downsloping northwest winds. Wind speeds overall will be breezy this evening, decreasing later tonight into Friday. && .MARINE /FOR NEAR SHORE WATERS OF WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR/... Issued at 941 PM CST Thu Nov 21 2024 Gale Warnings along the North Shore have been replaced by Small Craft Advisories for the rest of tonight as winds have decreased. Small Craft Advisories for all nearshore zones expire at 6 AM, but it is possible that some may be allowed to expire earlier as winds continue to decrease tonight. No other updates since the last discussion. For the open water discussion, refer to the NWS Marquette Area Forecast Discussion at weather.gov/mqt. && .DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MN...Wind Advisory until 10 PM CST this evening for MNZ020-021. WI...None. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 6 AM CST Friday for LSZ121-143>148- 150. Gale Warning until 10 PM CST this evening for LSZ140>142. Small Craft Advisory until 6 AM CST Friday for LSZ140>142. && $$ DISCUSSION...Huyck AVIATION...JDS MARINE...JDS