534
FXUS63 KDLH 052320
AFDDLH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Duluth MN
620 PM CDT Thu Jun 5 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Light showers will continue into Friday with isolated lighting
  at times.

- A stronger system will bring better chances (70-90%) for
  rainfall Saturday night through Monday with a greater than 50%
  chance for at least 0.25" of accumulation across the region.

- Temperatures remain near normal through the weekend before
  warming above normal mid-week with periodic chances for
  rainfall.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 350 PM CDT Thu Jun 5 2025

High pressure was in place across the Northland early this
afternoon with a stationary boundary draped along the
International Border. Despite the surface high pressure, a
trough aloft was leading to isolated showers with a few embedded
rumbles of thunder across the region. Some gusty winds will be
possible in collapsing showers with inverted-v soundings in
place. As a shortwave embedded in the trough moves through
tonight, better synoptic forcing will lead to better shower
chances across the southern half of the forecast area. This
activity may linger into Friday afternoon across northwest
Wisconsin mainly as the shortwave moves to the east. Dry
conditions will prevail across northern areas and afternoon RH
values Friday may fall into the 25 to 30% range along the
International Border. Additionally, Canadian wildfire smoke
along the International Border will lead to unhealthy conditions
tonight into Friday as it drifts east. Some of this smoke may
get funneled to the southwest into the Twin Ports area due to
the light flow and surface high pressure in place.

As the surface high moves east Friday night, southerly return
flow will lead to increasing moisture across the Upper Midwest.
As an upper trough moves east from the Central Plains into the
Upper Midwest through the day on Saturday, showers and
thunderstorms will become possible. An upper low will come
barreling southeast out of the Canadian Prairies into the Upper
Midwest Saturday night bringing better chances for widespread
precipitation across the region. This low looks to have a bit
more moisture to work with with a connection to a Pacific
atmospheric river and some Gulf moisture being pulled in from
the south. However, dry air in the lower levels continue and may
rob some of the QPF as the low levels moisten up. Models
continue to vary greatly on QPF amounts, but there remains a
greater than 50% chance of at least 0.25" across the entire area
by the time the system departs Sunday afternoon. Given the
current expected timing of the rainfall Saturday night into
Sunday morning, no strong or severe storms are currently
expected, but if the system trends a bit faster, western areas
may see some chances. Cloudy and showery conditions may then
linger into Monday as the low becomes more cut off south of
James Bay and keep a cyclonic flow regime in place.

Temperatures will begin the week near normal before warming
above normal by midweek as high reach the 80s over most areas
for Wednesday and Thursday. Rainfall chances return late week as
low pressure moves across the Northern Tier states. High
pressure over Bermuda will keep moisture-rich southerly flow in
place and may lead to some heavier, but much needed rainfall by
late week.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY/...
Issued at 618 PM CDT Thu Jun 5 2025

Numerous rain showers and isolated thunderstorms will occur
during this TAF period. Most notably these will be along a line
from Brainerd to Duluth into the North Shore region through 15Z
Friday. Any outflow winds for the next few hours of this TAF
issuance are expected to be around or less than 25 knots with
highly variable directions. Scattered rain showers continue
after 15Z in eastern Minnesota and across northwest Wisconsin.


&&

.MARINE /FOR NEAR SHORE WATERS OF WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR/...
Issued at 350 PM CDT Thu Jun 5 2025

Winds will remain under 15 knots through the forecast period.
Funneling effects may lead to gusts to 15 knots this afternoon
and again tomorrow afternoon at the head of the lake with waves
of 1 to 2 feet possible. Showers and a few isolated
thunderstorms will be possible this afternoon through Friday,
but no strong or severe storms are expected.

For the open water discussion, refer to the NWS Marquette Area
Forecast Discussion at weather.gov/mqt.

&&

.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...None.
WI...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...BJH
AVIATION...NLy
MARINE...BJH