777
FXUS63 KDLH 081954
AFDDLH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Duluth MN
154 PM CST Fri Nov 8 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Chances of rain return through Saturday afternoon and evening.
Light accumulations expected.

- Next round of precipitation possible mid to late next week.

- Above normal temperatures continue through the forecast
  period.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 153 PM CST Fri Nov 8 2024

Following today`s dry weather, we`ll look into the weekend for our
next chance of precipitation. A low pressure system exiting Colorado
this afternoon will slowly progress northeastward, bringing chances
of rain to the Northland through Saturday afternoon and evening. The
best chance for precipitation is overnight and into Sunday morning,
with much of the area seeing dry conditions return late Sunday into
Monday morning. Despite how powerful this low has been over New
Mexico and Colorado, accumulations will be relatively light across
the Northland, with recent trends bringing amounts down slightly.
This appears to be due to a weakening of the upper level support of
the low combined with the intrusion of some dry air, despite it
deepening as it crosses the plains, probably thanks to some lee
cyclogenesis. Precipitation will likely manifest as scattered
stratiform rain. One tenth of an inch or less is expected for much
of the area, though some portions of Northwest Wisconsin may see one
to two tenths. There is only about a 10 to 25 percent chance of for
accumulations to exceed a quarter inch, most likely over NW WI.

Dry air and high pressure returns through the day Monday and through
Tuesday. Most models are in decent agreement that some variation of
an upper level trough will cross the Northern Plains and Upper Great
Lakes Wednesday - Thursday. However there are still significant
differences between exact tracks, orientations, and intensity. So,
much uncertainty still remains for accumulations. At this point,
only a select couple ensemble members have a little light snow
mixing in, so it`s most likely that this system would also be all
rain.

There are indications for another system to move across the region
sometime next weekend. A lot of uncertainty regarding any details as
it is more than 7 days out, but there are a collection of solutions
that bring some snow to the region in this time period. The GEFS
ensemble shows a more prominent cool down occurring after our
Wednesday-Thursday system with regular lows in the 20s and highs in
the mid to upper 30s, but the Euro ENS is warmer at large, keeping
the area seeing high temperatures into the 40s and lows above
freezing. These discrepancies in temperature beyond 5-6 days out
will have large ramifications on precipitation types and the
potential for any more winter-like weather to return.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY/...
Issued at 1137 AM CST Fri Nov 8 2024

VFR conditions are expected through the TAF period. Light southerly
winds pick up overnight and then become stronger through the mid to
late morning, with some gusts up to 15 knots possible by 18Z.

&&

.MARINE /FOR NEAR SHORE WATERS OF WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR/...
Issued at 153 PM CST Fri Nov 8 2024

Mostly light winds today become southerly into Saturday. Some
stronger gusts are expected Saturday between Grand Marais and Grand
Portage, with some gusts near 25 knots and waves of 3 to 6 feet
between the mainland and the southwest end of Isle Royale. A small
craft advisory has been issued for that portion of the nearshore
waters. Those stronger winds should dissipate overnight into Sunday,
with light breezes from the east turning to become westerly by
Sunday evening. A stronger period of westerly winds may be possible
Monday which could necessitate another round of headlines.

For the open water discussion, refer to the NWS Marquette Area
Forecast Discussion at weather.gov/mqt.

&&

.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...None.
WI...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from 6 AM to 6 PM CST Saturday for LSZ140.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Levens
AVIATION...Levens
MARINE...Levens