379
FXUS63 KDLH 081737
AFDDLH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Duluth MN
1137 AM CST Fri Nov 8 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Temperatures at or above normal through most of the next week.

- Light rain develops later Saturday afternoon into Saturday
  night with chances lingering in spots into Sunday night.
  Rainfall amounts will be light.

- Another chance for light rain arrives next Tuesday
  night/Wednesday.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 304 AM CST Fri Nov 8 2024

High pressure will provide dry conditions to the Northland today
into Saturday morning. Highs will be above normal with them peaking
in the mid-forties to lower fifties with winds much lighter than
Thursday.

An upper low that is currently spinning over New Mexico will move
into Nebraska by 00Z Sunday, then continue into Iowa/southern
Minnesota by 12Z Sunday before pushing east of the region Sunday
night. Tonight will be colder under clear skies and light winds.
Lows in spots will drop to around 20, mainly in far northeast
Minnesota including the Iron Range. Clouds will be on the
increase Saturday ahead of the upper low and chances for rain
will occur Saturday afternoon over all but far north to
northeast areas of the Northland. Chances will only be from
20-40%. As forcing from the upper low increases Saturday night,
light rain should become widespread. Light rain chances will
diminish Sunday into Sunday night. Total rainfall will be less
than a two tenths of an inch with many locales receiving less
than a tenth of an inch.

There may be some lingering light precipitation Sunday night as
colder air filters in as low pressure departs. The light rain may
mix with some light snow in far northern Minnesota but accumulation
is not expected.

A brief period of high pressure will bring dry conditions back into
the region on Monday with highs in the forties.

Another upper trough and surface low will bring rain chances back
into the Northland Tuesday night into Wednesday. There is general
agreement among the global models during this period but there are
some significant differences in how quickly they move the features
through, and the uncertainty bleeds over into the models ensemble
members as well. What this means is that a slower solution like the
operational ECMWF would lead a bit more rainfall compared to the
faster solutions. After the upper trough/surface low finally do
depart, a shot of colder air will move in briefly.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY/...
Issued at 1137 AM CST Fri Nov 8 2024

VFR conditions are expected through the TAF period. Light southerly
winds pick up overnight and then become stronger through the mid to
late morning, with some gusts up to 15 knots possible by 18Z.

&&

.MARINE /FOR NEAR SHORE WATERS OF WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR/...
Issued at 304 AM CST Fri Nov 8 2024

West to southwest winds continued this morning with some gusts
to 25 knots continuing along with elevated waves. The wind and
waves will decrease this morning with speeds at or lower than 15
knots this afternoon.

The wind will become southerly tonight and increase into
Saturday to 10 to 20 knots with higher gusts. Conditions will
become hazardous for smaller vessels due to the wind and
building waves, especially along portions of the North Shore
which will see the greatest wave response. Another round of
Small Craft Advisories will likely be needed for portions of the
nearshore waters.

The wind will diminish Saturday night becoming easterly before
shifting to west or northwest on Sunday.

For the open water discussion, refer to the NWS Marquette
Area Forecast Discussion at weather.gov/mqt.

&&

.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...None.
WI...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Melde
AVIATION...Levens
MARINE...Melde