859
FXUS63 KDLH 040507
AFDDLH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Duluth MN
1207 AM CDT Wed Jun 4 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

-Near critical fire weather conditions for portions of northeast
 Minnesota on Wednesday and Thursday due to very dry conditions

-At least low precipitation chances nearly every day of the next
 7 days for parts of the Northland, with the best chances for
 widespread precipitation Saturday night into Sunday. However,
 the likelihood for widespread rainfall amounts of a half inch
 or more is low.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 230 PM CDT Tue Jun 3 2025

On the synoptic scale, northwesterly flow at mid to upper levels
will keep us in a somewhat active weather pattern - it`s not summer
ridge season just yet, thankfully! There certainly is variability in
the guidance into this weekend when the "strongest" synoptic forcing
exists with some ensemble guidance depicting an upper level low that
tracks from northern Manitoba southeast to the Upper Great Lakes,
causing a resultant surface low to deepen and stall out for a bit
over Lake Superior. This would be an ideal scenario with a broad
area of showers/storms ahead of the low late Saturday, then wrap-
around precipitation into Sunday. Overall guidance spread is still
fairly large with each of the three major global ensembles including
overlapping solutions, with about 50-60 percent of those solutions
indicating a quarter inch or more of rainfall in northern Minnesota
this weekend, though (pessimistically) that also means around 40-50
percent of solutions fail to produce even a quarter inch of rainfall.

That said, occasional weak impulses in the northwest flow along with
diurnal heating will bring at least occasional periods with
precipitation potential, even if it`s not much - which is better
than hot and dry conditions. The driest of the next 7 days will be
tomorrow (Wednesday) and Thursday when relative humidity values fall
to 20-30 percent in the afternoon, but on neither day will winds be
particularly strong, so red flag conditions are unlikely. Still,
with how dry fuels remain and how parts of northeast Minnesota have
missed out on the recent rainfall, near-critical fire weather
messaging is expected for Wednesday and Thursday pending
coordination with land management agency partners.

Primary concern in the short term is the potential for near-critical
fire weather conditions Wednesday and maybe into Thursday. Followed
the mid shift`s lead in lowering relative humidity values in the
forecast for Wednesday and Thursday towards drier solutions,
especially for northeast Minnesota where some locations have seen
less than a tenth of an inch of rain in the past 36 hours and we
have recently. Leaned heavily on bias-corrected guidance which may
be too dry for places that have received recently rainfall, but
should more accurately capture the drier spots than the default
model blend used.

Do not anticipate severe thunderstorms in the next 7 days, with the
best chance for thunderstorms on Saturday in the warm sector ahead
ahead of a cold front. However, instability for northeast Minnesota
into northwest Wisconsin is marginal (MUCAPE values around 500 j/kg
or less) in the best scenarios with most solutions favoring storms
developing in the eastern Dakotas into western Minnesota Saturday
afternoon then moving eastward and weakening Saturday evening. As
stated earlier, though, there is considerable spread in guidance for
the weekend, but few scenarios would result in much of a severe
weather threat for the Northland.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY/...
Issued at 1207 AM CDT Wed Jun 4 2025

VFR conditions expected through the TAF period for all terminals
except HYR. There, fog and lingering smoke are expected to lead to
IFR conditions through sunrise when improvement back to VFR should
begin. Some patches of LIFR visibility could be possible through
early this morning. Breezy west winds expected this afternoon across
the region.

&&

.MARINE /FOR NEAR SHORE WATERS OF WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR/...
Issued at 230 PM CDT Tue Jun 3 2025

Fairly light winds across western Lake Superior through the rest of
the week. This weekend there is a possibility for a (seasonally)
strong low pressure system to develop and cause increasing westerly
winds Sunday into Monday (near Small Craft Advisory criteria) but
Gale-force winds are very unlikely (less than 3 percent potential).
A few light precipitation chances but widespread thunderstorms or
any strong to severe storms are not anticipated in the next 7
days.

For the open water discussion, refer to the NWS Marquette Area
Forecast Discussion at weather.gov/mqt.

&&

.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...None.
WI...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...JJM
AVIATION...Levens
MARINE...JJM