346
FXUS63 KDLH 041940
AFDDLH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Duluth MN
240 PM CDT Fri Sep 4 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- The next round of scattered showers and thunderstorms begins
  Sunday. Widespread rainfall is forecast into Monday night
  ending Tuesday morning.

- Low end chance of severe weather for northern Minnesota Sunday
  and Monday, with more widespread potential on Tuesday.

- Gale-force wind gusts are possible over western Lake Superior
  early to mid next week, especially Wednesday.

- Dense fog is forecast tonight along the South Shore.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 229 PM CDT Fri Sep 4 2026

For the rest of the day, low stratus and persistent sky cover will
remain entrenched across much of the Northland, except for areas of
north-central Minnesota and inland northwest Wisconsin where some
clearing will continue this afternoon. Dangerous rip currents will
continue to impact the beaches of the Twin Ports into this evening.
Heading into tonight, lingering moisture within northeast
onshore flow is forecast to create dense fog along the South
Shore, where Dense Fog Advisories have been issued.

Saturday will start off foggy along the South Shore and cloudy for
many, but conditions should gradually improve into the midday hours.
A second day of dangerous rip currents is possible again
Saturday for the beaches of the Twin Ports, and another Beach
Hazards Statement is likely to be needed. Temperatures will warm
back into the upper 70s to low 80s as transient ridging builds
into the region.

The break in active weather ends very early Sunday morning as
thunderstorms return then for the rest of the Holiday weekend.
As instability surges into the region, strong to severe
thunderstorms are possible Sunday afternoon and evening. This
environment will also be characterized by a very moist airmass,
bringing the threat of heavy rainfall alongside any severe
hazards. If it can form, low confidence right now, severe
weather would mainly be limited to north- central Minnesota and
the Borderlands Sunday afternoon to evening before quickly
decreasing environmental favorability into northeast Minnesota.

Widespread light to moderate wetting rainfall is forecast for Labor
Day Monday, especially from the afternoon through Tuesday morning
as a dynamic low pressure system approaches. This would be
another day of low-end severe weather chances for severe
weather potentially in northern Minnesota, but much lesser
favorability into northwest Wisconsin.

By Tuesday afternoon though, the more likely severe weather
chances for the region, cross over the entire Northland and
could be a day to watch given the more notable forcing combining
with a highly moist atmosphere. The instability though appears
to be a narrow corridor that will have to line up with daytime
heating to erode any mid-level capping.

Gale force wind gusts from easterly winds will impact the North
Shore on Monday, reaching up to 40 mph. As the system moves
northeastward, winds will shift to southerly for the coastal
North Shore near and just offshore of the Grand Portage area,
where gusts to 40 mph are possible again on Tuesday.

Expect a third wind shift and even stronger westerly winds behind
a cold frontal passage on Wednesday morning. Gusts of 30 mph are
forecast for land areas on Wednesday, with Lake Superior waters
exceeding 40 mph. Gale Watches may be needed in time for the
coastal nearshore waters. After this wet and windy early to mid
next week time period, only very limited rain shower coverage is
expected to end next week.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY/...
Issued at 1226 PM CDT Fri Sep 4 2026

LIFR to MVFR conditions are expected for most of the regional
terminals today given lingering stratus cover. The exception is
possible clearing later this afternoon for the Brainerd Lakes
and inland northwest Wisconsin. A return of dense fog is
possible again tonight, especially for those near the Lake
Superior shorelines. Easterly winds continue. Skies clear
towards the very later end of this TAF period at most terminals.

&&

.MARINE /FOR NEARSHORE WATERS OF WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR/...
Issued at 133 PM CDT Fri Sep 4 2026

Small Craft Advisories remain in effect for the nearshore waters of
western Lake Superior due to northeast winds gusting to 30
knots and elevated waves of 2 to 4 feet. Winds will decrease
slightly on Saturday, but active weather returns Sunday into
early next week. Easterly gale force gusts of 25 to 30 knots are
expected, possibly up to 35 knots are along the North Shore on
Monday. Winds shift southerly near Grand Portage on Tuesday with
30-35 knot gusts, then become westerly by Wednesday morning
with gusts exceeding 40 knots across the lake. Gale Watches will
likely be needed for at least one day early to mid next week.

For the open water discussion, refer to the NWS Marquette Area
Forecast Discussion at weather.gov/mqt.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 131 PM CDT Fri Sep 4 2026

Minimum relative humidity values will largely remain above 50
percent through the weekend as abundant moisture stays in place.
East to southeast winds will generally remain under 15 mph through
Saturday. Widespread wetting rain and thunderstorms are expected
Sunday into Tuesday. Winds will increase significantly next week,
with gusts of 20 to 30 mph on land starting Monday and peaking on
Wednesday behind a cold front. Expect easterly winds Monday to
shift to southerly Tuesday with a secondary wind shift to
westerly on Wednesday.

See the Fire Weather Forecast product for a more thorough
breakdown of fire weather conditions.

&&

.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...Beach Hazards Statement until 10 PM CDT this evening for
     MNZ037.
WI...Beach Hazards Statement until 10 PM CDT this evening for
     WIZ001.
     Dense Fog Advisory from 10 PM this evening to 10 AM CDT
     Saturday for WIZ002>004.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 1 AM CDT Saturday for LSZ140>145-
     150.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...NLy
AVIATION...NLy
MARINE...NLy
FIRE WEATHER...NLy