759
FXUS63 KDLH 261730
AFDDLH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Duluth MN
1230 PM CDT Sat Apr 26 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Near-critical fire weather conditions today across
  Koochiching and northern St. Louis counties due to low RH
  values.

- A system begins to affect the region late tonight and
  continues into Tuesday. Two rounds of severe storms are
  possible Sunday night and Monday afternoon and evening.

- Briefly cooler Tuesday before warming back up for the
  remainder of the week with more rain chances late week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 519 AM CDT Sat Apr 26 2025

High pressure was on control across the Upper Midwest early this
morning with clear skies and light winds prevailing. Some patch
fog was trying to form in spots, but dry air was keeping this in
check. The main story today will be RH values dropping into the
20 to 25 percent range across much of Koochiching and northern
St. Louis counties. Winds in this area will only be gusting to
around 10 mph this afternoon, but with drying fuels, near-
critical fire weather conditions are expected in this area.
Otherwise, dry conditions with highs in the 60s away from Lake
Superior will be seen today with upper 40s and 50s near the
lake.

As the high shifts eastward into the Great Lakes tonight into
Sunday, southerly flow sets up across the Northern Plains and
Upper Midwest. This will lead to showers and perhaps a few
rumbles of thunder early Sunday morning through much of the day.
Heading into Sunday night, low pressure will emerge into the
Plains and lift a warm front through the Northland. This will
bring better chances for showers and thunderstorms to the region
for Sunday night into Monday. A few strong to severe storms will
be possible west of a Lake Mille Lacs to Grand Rapids to
International Falls line. Given the overnight timing of the
activity and widespread rainfall expected, overall severe
chances are low, only about 5 to 10% in this area.

The second round of storms is expected Monday afternoon into
Monday night. However, there still remains questions as to the
coverage and intensity of these storms. If the first round is
slow to clear out or clouds linger through the day, that could
reduce the chances for severe storms during the second round.
Models continue to point to a favorable environment for severe
storms with CAPE around 1500 J/kg, 700-500mb lapse rates over 8
C/km, and effective shear around 30 to 35 knots. Large hail and
damaging winds look to be the primary threats with these storms,
but shear profiles and SRH over 200 m2/s2 may lead to an
isolated tornado or two, especially in any discrete cells that
can develop. The greatest threat for severe storms will be along
and south of the Iron Range in Minnesota and all of northwest
Wisconsin, especially from Burnett County eastward into Price
County. NAM sounding show a pretty stout cap in place, but this
is likely overdone. With all this said, severe chances are in
the 20-30% range with a 30-40% chance from Burnett County eastward
to Price County. As storms progress east, they will likely grow
upscale with the primary threat becoming damaging wind gusts
heading into the late evening hours. In addition to the severe
threat, heavy rainfall will be possible with PWATs in the 1-1.25
inch range. Rainfall totals of 1 to 2 inches will be possible
with this system, with the highest amounts expected across
northern Itasca, Koochiching and northern St. Louis counties.

Temperatures turn cooler for Tuesday in the wake of the cold
front with highs in the 40s and 50s. Some showers may linger
for Monday night into Tuesday on the backside of the departing
low and a few snowflakes may mix in across northeastern
Minnesota Monday night with little to no accumulations
expected. Temperatures warm right back into the 50s and 60s for
the remainder of the week with another chance for rainfall in
the Thursday-Friday time frame.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY/...
Issued at 1222 PM CDT Sat Apr 26 2025

VFR conditions continue through the overnight period, with high
pressure slowly exiting to the east. High and mid level clouds
increase this afternoon and evening, from west to east. Rain
chances increase after 12Z Sunday morning, especially near BRD
eastward to HYR. Cigs lower to MVFR for most terminals Sunday
morning as well, as winds increase from the southeast with gusts
of 20-22kts.

&&

.MARINE /FOR NEAR SHORE WATERS OF WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR/...
Issued at 519 AM CDT Sat Apr 26 2025

High pressure will keep winds variable at 5 to 15 knots today
before turning northeasterly tonight at 5 to 15 knots, highest
in the western arm. Winds then increase for Sunday from the
southeast with gusts to 20 knots that will linger into Sunday
night. Rain and storm chances arrive on Sunday and continue into
Monday and Monday night. Strong to severe storms will be
possible Monday afternoon and evening with large hail and wind
gusts to 50 knots possible.

For the open water discussion, refer to the NWS Marquette Area
Forecast Discussion at weather.gov/mqt.

&&

.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...None.
WI...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...BJH
AVIATION...HA
MARINE...BJH