688
FXUS63 KDLH 061337
AFDDLH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Duluth MN
737 AM CST Fri Mar 6 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Dangerous travel conditions persist this morning due to a
  combination of dense fog and light freezing drizzle,
  especially around Lake Superior.

- A messy system arrives today bringing rain and a few
  thunderstorms, transitioning through a wintry mixture tonight
  to light snow before it ends Saturday morning. Snow amounts
  continue to trend lower due to warmer temperatures.

- The rain and isolated thunderstorms expected this afternoon
  and evening may lead to ponding of water on roads and frozen
  ground, especially for northwest Wisconsin and the I-35
  corridor of Minnesota.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 735 AM CST Fri Mar 6 2026

With a pool of wetbulb temperatures in the 20s across the
Arrowhead, opted to add a Winter Weather Advisory for most of
the Arrowhead through 11 am. Incoming fzra should quickly add
some extra ice to these locations - up to 0.10". Eventuall WAA
and sunshine should win out, but this morning will be slick out
there.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 342 AM CST Fri Mar 6 2026

A low pressure system moves from its current position over the
CO/KS border, and will move east-northeast across Nebraska and
Iowa today, then northeast into the Michigan UP by Saturday
morning. This system has an elongated, inverted trough that
extends north to the western MN border this morning, and will
drag slowly east across the Northland this afternoon and
tonight. There is also a secondary warm front extending east
across central MN into northern WI this morning. This whole
system will make the next 36 hours rather interesting across the
forecast area. Of note, we have been seeing lightning reports
affecting most of southern MN and IA overnight, with surges that
periodically move into central MN, but so far have stayed
mostly south of I-94. These convective elements have been
weakening as they move north, and we have yet to had any
accumulations in the forecast area as of 3 AM. The warm air
advection and isentropic lift will continue for areas along and
ahead of that trough axis though, so I expect that the
precipitation currently ongoing over eastern Nebraska and over
southern Minnesota will gradually push into the forecast area
today and tonight. Precipitation type is the main concern for
our area today, with surface temperatures ranging from the low
20s for the tip of the Arrowhead to the low to mid 30s from the
Brainerd Lakes east into northwest Wisconsin. The secondary warm
front should slowly push north along with the precipitation,
bringing warmer temperatures into the area today. However, if
the precipitation gets too far out ahead of the warm air, we
will have freezing precipitation on top of the two nights of
freezing drizzle we have already had for parts of the area.
However, we are now well into March with good strong sunshine,
that even through the cloud cover should help warm at least our
roads above freezing today. With that, I have extended the
winter weather advisory out until 15z as it appears air
temperatures will be a little slower to warm and I wanted to be
sure we caught all of that time frame for potential icing. The
fog that has been hanging about around Lake Superior is likely
to continue through at least 18z today. Considering the onshore
flow and convergence that will continue through the day and into
this evening, we may need to extend it farther out in time, but
decided to wait and see on this for now, as the front passage
and showers may help improve visibilities.

Tonight, as the system pulls away toward Upper Michigan, colder
air will slide back into the region from the northwest. This
will cause the rain to transition back to a wintry mix and
eventually light snow from west to east. Accumulations are
expected to be minor, generally staying under two inches, but
falling temperatures could lead to re-freezing on untreated
surfaces. Conditions will clear out for most of the area quickly
on Saturday, lingering through most of the day for northwest
Wisconsin. A ridge of high pressure will slide across the area
on Sunday, leading to a much warmer and sunnier second half of
the weekend. A tight pressure gradient on the west side of this
ridge axis will produce breezy and gusty southwesterly winds
Saturday night into Sunday. A clipper passing through Ontario
may bring some precipitation chances to the Borderlands through
the weekend.

We have poor confidence leading into next week, as there are
some pretty large differences in the models for the timing of
shortwaves that move through the fast, zonal flow that will be
the pattern for North America for most of next week. For now, it
appears there will be a system passing through the broader
region in the Sunday night through Tuesday time frame, but
impacts for the Northland are uncertain at this time. We may
have another weaker system later in the week as well. With this
pattern temperatures should return to more seasonal values,
without any big plunges towards warmer or colder values.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY/...
Issued at 537 AM CST Fri Mar 6 2026

VLIFR conditions emanating from Lake Superior continue this
morning, impacting only DLH so far, with a mixture of LIFR for
HIB and BRD, IFR for KHYR, and MVFR for INL. Expect these poor
flying conditions to continue through the forecast period, as a
Colorado Low brings a round of precipitation today and tonight.
Scattered showers are spreading in this morning and will
continue this afternoon. A more organized wave of rain is
expected to form in the evening which may carry some embedded
thunderstorms for HYR and possibly also DLH. Have left these
out of TAF for now as probabilities remain low with low
confidence in timing. As we move later into the evening cold air
will see a precipitation type change to snow going west to east
with time. Light snow continues for several hours before slowly
ending from west to east after 06z tonight, but only INL and
BRD return to VFR visibilities and MVFR ceilings by the end of
the TAF.

&&

.MARINE /FOR NEARSHORE WATERS OF WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR/...
Issued at 342 AM CST Fri Mar 6 2026

Winds and waves will remain below small craft criteria today as
northeast winds slowly diminish through the day. Patchy dense
fog will significantly reduce visibility on the lake through
noon. Winds shift to the northwest tonight with gusts to 20
knots that linger through Saturday morning. Winds back to
southwesterly and increase late Saturday and continue through
Sunday, with gale force gusts likely. We anticipate a
combination of Small Craft Advisories and Gale Warnings
beginning later on Saturday.

For the open water discussion, refer to the NWS Marquette Area
Forecast Discussion at weather.gov/mqt.

&&

.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...Dense Fog Advisory until noon CST today for MNZ020-021-037.
     Winter Weather Advisory until 11 AM CST this morning for
     MNZ012-019>021-037.
WI...Dense Fog Advisory until noon CST today for WIZ001>003.
MARINE...Dense Fog Advisory until noon CST today for LSZ142.
     Winter Weather Advisory until 11 AM CST this morning for
     LSZ142.

&&

$$

UPDATE...Wolfe
DISCUSSION...LE
AVIATION...LE
MARINE...LE