657
FXUS63 KDLH 121137
AFDDLH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Duluth MN
637 AM CDT Fri Jun 12 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Isolated showers across northern MN this morning with some
  showers and storms possible across our southern counties late
  this afternoon into tonight. No severe weather is expected.

- Isolated showers and with possibly a couple embedded storms
  are expected again Saturday along the International Border.

- Cooler than normal temperatures this weekend through early
  next week.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 1251 AM CDT Fri Jun 12 2026

High res models are having a hard time capturing expected
showers and embedded storms from the vertically stacked low
previously mentioned. Increased chances for precipitation along
the International Border as this continued cold air advection
and upper level forcing with this system will likely lead to
these diurnal showers and embedded storms today and Saturday.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 152 PM CDT Thu Jun 11 2026

Current Conditions/Today:

Widespread cloud cover has engulfed most of the region this
afternoon as a surface low pressure works its way across IA and
northeast towards WI. Farther to the northwest we have a cold front
marching across the Northern Plains and entering the Lake of
the Woods area. Both of these features will be aided by a
strong upper level jet with a trough pushing across the Northern
Plains sending a lobe of PVA over the region. While the deepest
moisture will be confined to the aforementioned surface low
pressure we will see some PWATs of over an inch seeping into NW
WI. With the moisture in play combined with the synoptic forcing
overhead we will see some rain showers spread in from the south
through the afternoon and evening hours. Plenty of bulk shear
aloft with the jet overhead but fairly limited on instability
keeping severe weather at bay. Farther northwest along the cold
front we could see another area of precipitation develop with
isolated storms possible. Along the front we are seeing some
favorable surface vorticity with steep low level lapse rates.
This may lead to some funnels developing. The most favorable
vorticity is expected to cruise through the Brainerd Lakes
region before dissipating after 8PM. Overall, expecting some
light rain showers with some embedded storms through the evening
with activity tapering off in the early morning hours.

Friday:

The aforementioned cold front will be slowly decaying as it crosses
the region on Friday with some lingering showers possible in the
morning hours as weak impulses weave through a meridional set up.
Temperatures across northern MN will be slightly cooler with a warm
front building back in from the south. Highs in the north will be in
the upper 60s with mid 70s across our south. Expect gusty west winds
with some diurnally driven showers in the afternoon. Better chances
for shower and isolated thunderstorm development will be in the late
afternoon and evening hours across our south in the warmer air. A
small low level jet is expected to increase across southern MN
during this time contributing to the precipitation chances.
Activity will persist into NW WI until Saturday morning when the
jet shifts east and weakens.

Weekend-Monday:

A vertically stacked low pressure will be churning its way through
Ontario keeping the region in cyclonic flow aloft. This will keep
temperatures cooler than normal with the weekend highs largely in
the 60s. Diurnal heating paired with some low level moisture
wrapping around the low pressure will lead to isolated showers at
times.

Tuesday into Late Week:

Cluster analysis keeps a broad area of low pressure over the Great
Lakes region through the period but ever so slightly shifting
east each day. This subtle shift will allow the ridge to the
west to weaken a bit and allow for some additional intrusions
aloft. Not a great deal agreement between the deterministic
guidance on these intrusions with the Euro bringing the first
shortwave in on Tuesday reintroducing more widespread showers
and possible thunderstorms. For now, the NBM is carrying a
20-40% chance of rain in the afternoon. The pattern may remain
active into the late week as an upper level jet digs into the
Central Plains allowing for deeper troughing to move across the
Northland.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY/...
Issued at 638 AM CDT Fri Jun 12 2026

Lingering cold air advection under cyclonic flow aloft will kick
off scattered showers with a few embedded storms in two rounds
today through tonight. The first will be this morning into early
evening near INL, and the second from near or just south of BRD
east to HYR as early as late this afternoon, but the best
potential this evening into tonight as a low-level jet
increases. High resolution weather model guidance still varies
quite a bit for the northward extent and timing of this second
round, so kept precipitation mention out of BRD for now. HYR has
the better potential to see precipitation, with the window of
best potential in a prevailing shower group. It is possible that
rain lasts from this evening through early Saturday at HYR if
some of the more active weather model solutions come to
fruition. Today will see strong westerly winds with gusts up to
25 to 30 kt, though gusts ease near and after sunset this
evening.

&&

.MARINE /FOR NEARSHORE WATERS OF WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR/...
Issued at 1251 AM CDT Fri Jun 12 2026

Southwest winds over western Lake Superior will increase early
this morning with the departing low pressure system, quickly
exceeding 20 kts - especially closer to shore. This will lead to
conditions hazardous to small craft, and a Small Craft Advisory
is in effect. Winds will temporarily decrease overnight before
increasing again Saturday, when another Small Craft Advisory
will likely be needed across most of western Lake Superior near
shores.

For the open water discussion, refer to the NWS Marquette Area
Forecast Discussion at weather.gov/mqt.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 1251 AM CDT Fri Jun 12 2026

Lower dewpoints have returned, and minimum RHs in the 30s return
for the weekend. Some areas of northeast Minnesota could see as
low as 25% on Sunday. Winds will remain gusty each day, with
sustained winds 15-20 mph today with gusts 25-30 mph. Sustained
will be a little lower Saturday, but gusts up to 25 mph will
remain. Sunday will continue to be a day to watch for near
critical fire weather conditions. However, despite the low RHs
in the afternoon, there is a small chance for scattered showers
and a few embedded storms today and Saturday, particularly
across our south and the International Border. Though, any
rainfall is not expected to exceed a quarter inch.

See the Fire Weather Forecast product for a more thorough
breakdown of fire weather conditions.

&&

.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...None.
WI...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 10 PM CDT this evening for LSZ121-
     145>148-150.
     Small Craft Advisory from 10 AM this morning to 10 PM CDT this
     evening for LSZ140>144.

&&

$$

UPDATE...KML
DISCUSSION...Britt
AVIATION...Rothstein
MARINE...KML
FIRE WEATHER...KML