463
FXUS63 KDLH 241744
AFDDLH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Duluth MN
1244 PM CDT Sat May 24 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Slightly warmer temperatures expected tonight into Sunday
  morning, with more localized areas of frost.

- Areas of smoke, from wildfires in Manitoba, are possible today
  and tonight.

- Opportunities for mainly afternoon isolated to scattered
  showers and a couple thunderstorms today and again in the
  Tuesday to Thursday timeframe.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 316 AM CDT Sat May 24 2025

Current temperatures this morning range from as low as the upper
20s where skies have been clear to lower 40s near the North
Shore where mid level clouds have lingered. Expect a couple more
hours of cooling, with patchy frost possible as light to calm
winds continue overnight.

Surface high pressure centered over Hudson Bay stretches
southward into the Northland today, allowing for light and
variable winds. This afternoon, expect a lake breeze to develop
and with the aid of weak forcing aloft, isolated to scattered
showers, and a thunderstorm or two, are possible along the
North Shore and back to the west in the Brainerd Lakes region.
Rainfall amounts will be less than one tenth of an inch.
Activity will diminish after sunset. The HRRR still shows
favorable conditions for near surface smoke from wildfires in
Manitoba, mainly west of the US 53/I-35 corridor today and
tonight. Overnight lows are expected to be a couple degrees
warmer tonight, with frost most likely over the Arrowhead and
northwest Wisconsin.

Surface high pressure remains over the area through early next
week, with highs around 70F Monday afternoon for most of the
area. The exception will be along the shores of western Lake
Superior, where upper 50s to lower 60s are expected. Lows will
be in the upper 30s to mid 40s. Guidance continues to show a cut
off closed low over the northern Plains mid week that will
provide opportunities for rain Tuesday through Thursday.
Surface high pressure will remain over the area, with better
forcing remaining to our south, closer to the surface reflection
of the upper low. Will carry 20-30% pops, with the better rain
chances south of US 2, with a 10-20% chance of more than a tenth
of inch of rain each day.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY/...
Issued at 1244 PM CDT Sat May 24 2025

VFR ceilings prevail across the region early this afternoon with
light showers more widespread than previously expected. Haven`t
seen any visibility reductions where showers have passed over
sensors, so expecting VFR visibilities to prevail. Showers end
this evening with areas of fog developing after midnight. Have
added in some MVFR/IFR fog with this update for DLH, HIB and
HYR. Winds will generally be light and variable with high
pressure overhead, but may be a bit gustier this afternoon at
BRD which is more on the edge of the high.

&&

.MARINE /FOR NEAR SHORE WATERS OF WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR/...
Issued at 316 AM CDT Sat May 24 2025

With surface high pressure over the region through early next
week, winds will be light and waves minimal across western Lake
Superior. Scattered rain showers and thunderstorms are possible
(20-30 percent chance) along the North Shore this afternoon
through sunset.


For the open water discussion, refer to the NWS Marquette Area
Forecast Discussion at weather.gov/mqt.

&&

.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...None.
WI...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...HA
AVIATION...BJH
MARINE...HA