382
FXUS63 KDLH 172326
AFDDLH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Duluth MN
626 PM CDT Thu Jul 17 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Rain returns Friday, though most places will not see more
  than 0.75 inches. Severe storms are not expected though a
  little thunder is possible.

- Below normal temperatures are expected the next couple days
  before returning to close to normal over the weekend.

- On and off chances for showers and storms continue throughout
  the week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 126 PM CDT Thu Jul 17 2025

High-pressure continues today, bringing sun though diurnal
cloud cover has developed, making it feel more cloudy. Winds
will be light, keeping temperatures a bit cooler than average,
topping out in the low 70s. Unfortunately, wildfire smoke from
Canada is drifting south, notably near International Falls,
which has prompted an Air Quality Alert for the far northern
forecast area.

For Friday, a weak low-pressure system will move through our
region, bringing a chance of rain. Most areas can expect
generally light rainfall, with amounts typically under half an
inch. However, some localized spots could see slightly higher
totals, possibly reaching up to an inch, depending on where any
heavier showers develop within the system. No severe storms are
expected with this system.

Ridging builds for the weekend so expect temperatures to climb
into the upper 70s and even low 80s, feeling much closer to what
we typically experience this time of year.

Early next week, another weak ridge will move in, pushing
temperatures even higher. Were looking at widespread 80s,
possibly even nearing 90 degrees in our southern half of the
forecast area through mid-week. There will be plenty of chances
for scattered showers and storms Monday onward as the weather
remains active. While some ingredients for strong to severe
storms will be present, a cap in the atmosphere should keep
things from getting out of hand. Well continue to monitor this
for any changes.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY/...
Issued at 622 PM CDT Thu Jul 17 2025

Smoke in the Minnesota Borderlands, affecting INL, clears out
later tonight so keep mentions of IFR visibility at INL for the
next few hours with this latest TAF issuance. Otherwise VFR
conditions prevail overnight under calm winds. An area of
rainfall moves west to east 10Z onward Friday morning. Expect a
few rumbles of thunder mainly south of US Hwy 2 in the afternoon
hours Friday. Right now the best instability looks to be over
central Minnesota so included a PROB30 for isolated
thunderstorms at BRD. All other terminals remain with only
general rain shower mentions, but may need a few hour thunder
mention if that instability pool looks to lift a bit further
northward over future TAF issuances.

&&

.MARINE /FOR NEAR SHORE WATERS OF WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR/...
Issued at 126 PM CDT Thu Jul 17 2025

A high pressure system over the area will lead to winds at 10
kts or less and waves less than 1 ft. Shower thunderstorm
chances increase again for western Lake Superior early Friday
through Friday night. No severe storms are expected, though
there may be locally gusty winds and cloud-to-water lightning.

For the open water discussion, refer to the NWS Marquette Area
Forecast Discussion at weather.gov/mqt.

&&

.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...None.
WI...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Wolfe
AVIATION...NLy
MARINE...KML