271
FXUS63 KDLH 071917
AFDDLH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Duluth MN
217 PM CDT Tue Oct 7 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Elevated fire weather conditions due to low relative humidity
  through this afternoon from the Brainerd Lakes into the St.
  Croix River Valley.

- A widespread freeze is expected tonight into Wednesday morning
  with a Freeze Warning in effect for the Northland. Another
  night of frost and localized freezing temperatures are
  possible in the Arrowhead and northwest Wisconsin Wednesday
  night.

- Temperatures warm back to 5-10F above normal late this week
  into the weekend, with more widespread rain chances returning
  Saturday night through Sunday.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 215 PM CDT Tue Oct 7 2025

Today - Wednesday night:

A cold front has pushed southeast of the Northland this
afternoon. In the wake of the front, plenty of sunshine is going
on with a cooler and drier airmass settling in. High
temperatures top out in the 50s to around 60F, warmest in
northwest Wisconsin. Northwest wind gusts to 15-20 mph continue
until late afternoon before becoming light and variable to calm
this evening and tonight. Minimum relative humidity to 18-25%
this afternoon from the Brainerd Lakes east to the St. Croix
River Valley will keep elevated fire weather potential going
until around sunset.

For tonight, the center of the high pressure settles in, leading
to ideal radiational cooling conditions. Since the airmass is
drier, fog is not expected. However, temperatures will plummet
tonight and have leaned colder than most deterministic guidance
due to warm biases. This places the Northland`s lows tonight
solidly below freezing, with most locations not within a few
miles of Lake Superior or immediately near larger inland lakes
forecast to dip into the 20s to low 30s, but even locations near
lakes are likely to still see frost. Some of the typical colder
spots could reach the low 20s. A Freeze Warning is in effect
from 10 PM this evening to 10 AM Wednesday morning. This is
expected to bring an end to the growing season for the
Northland.

Although the center of the surface high pressure shifts east of
the area on Wednesday, southerly surface winds will remain light
for all but central and north-central Minnesota where afternoon
gusts to 15-20 mph will be possible again. High temperatures
will remain seasonal in the mid 50s to low 60s. Subsidence from
the high pressure and a dry airmass may create elevated fire
weather conditions again on Wednesday as minimum relative
humidity values dip into the 20-30% range in most of northeast
Minnesota, driest in central and north-central Minnesota.

One last colder night is in store again Wednesday night with
lows around freezing in north-central Wisconsin and mid to upper 30s
in northwest Wisconsin and much of northeast Minnesota. Only
central and north-central Minnesota should see more widespread
coverage of low 40s temperatures Wednesday night.

Thursday - Friday:

Primarily southerly flow persists into late this week. A
moisture-starved clipper system and associated cold front
Thursday evening into early Friday. Can`t rule out some isolated
to scattered light rain in the Arrowhead and northwest Wisconsin
as it moves through Thursday night, but very little to no
accumulations are expected. Temperatures remain about 5-10F
above average--most highs in the low to upper 60s--for Thursday
and Friday.

This Weekend - Early Next Week:

Mild temperatures persist this weekend into early next week,
with highs 5-10F above normal this weekend and 2-5F above normal
early next week with a slight cooling trend into the middle of next
week. A deeper trough moves into the Rockies on Saturday and
through the northern Plains Sunday into early Monday. Ahead of
this trough, expected better moisture return with modified
moisture off of the western Gulf and Baja California, pushing
PWATs above 1 inch Saturday night through the first half of
Monday and leading to more widespread rain chances Saturday
night through Sunday night. Not a heavy rainfall signal by any
means with this system, but probabilities for >0.5" is 30-50% in
northeast Minnesota and less than 30% in northwest Wisconsin.
Probabilities for >1" of rain are only 10-20% at the moment.
Nonetheless, any rain at this point would be beneficial.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY/...
Issued at 1233 PM CDT Tue Oct 7 2025

A dry cold front has pushed southeast of the area with northwest
winds of 7-12 kts and gusts of 15-20 kts continuing until late
afternoon before becoming light and variable to calm this
evening and tonight as high pressure moves overhead. Expect
southerly winds towards the end of the TAF period tomorrow.
Aside from SCT to BKN VFR cumulus across far northern Minnesota
this afternoon, expect clear skies to prevail through the TAF
period.

&&

.MARINE /FOR NEAR SHORE WATERS OF WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR/...
Issued at 215 PM CDT Tue Oct 7 2025

Northwest downslope wind gusts of 20-25 kt north of Taconite
Harbor continue for another couple hours, but winds will drop
off late this afternoon into evening. Small Craft Advisories
are in effect until 4 PM CDT for Taconite Harbor northward.
High pressure overhead tonight into Wednesday creates calm to
very light winds slowly shifting to southerly. Breezy winds
from the southwest increase again Wednesday night into Thursday may
create conditions hazardous for small craft from Grand Marais to
Grand Portage Thursday and Thursday evening.

For the open water discussion, refer to the NWS Marquette Area
Forecast Discussion at weather.gov/mqt.

&&

.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...Freeze Warning from 10 PM this evening to 10 AM CDT Wednesday
     for MNZ010>012-018>021-025-026-033>038.
WI...Freeze Warning from 10 PM this evening to 10 AM CDT Wednesday
     for WIZ001>004-006>009.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 4 PM CDT this afternoon for LSZ140-
     141.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Rothstein
AVIATION...Rothstein
MARINE...Rothstein