734
FXUS63 KDLH 111128
AFDDLH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Duluth MN
628 AM CDT Sat Oct 11 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Near-critical fire weather conditions are expected this
  afternoon in the Brainerd Lakes region.

- Rain chances return Sunday and Sunday night.

- Gusty southeasterly winds last through Sunday evening and will
  shift westerly Sunday night.

- Quiet early to mid next week then return of more active
  pattern later next week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 315 AM CDT Sat Oct 11 2025

High pressure moves eastward and low pressure deepens over the
Northern High Plains today to create a strengthening low-level
southerly jet over the Upper Midwest and Northern Plains. The
eastern extent of these gusty southeasterly winds will mix down
over north-central Minnesota this afternoon. The lingering dry
atmosphere and warm seasonable temperatures will aid in creating
forecast minimum relative humidity of 25-30 percent in the
Brainerd Lakes region and northward to the Borderlands. Near-
critical fire weather conditions are expected Midday to early
evening today where these conditions coincide, Greater Brainerd
Lakes to possibly the Western Iron Range. A Special Weather
Statement was issued for these conditions in Cass and Crow Wing
Counties today. A further expansion in area may be necessary for
Aitkin and/or Itasca Counties if confidence increases in higher
wind speeds occurring in those areas...the dry air will
definitely be in place.

A few rain showers may (20-40% chance) move into these similar
areas overnight tonight as the low-level jet shifts eastward and
forcing from the surface low coincide into northwest Minnesota.
Even as even stronger and more widespread gusty southeasterly
winds are expected Sunday daytime, an increase in relative
humidity and cloud cover helps to limit the fire weather
conditions tomorrow. Even so, expect wind gusts from the
southeast to range from 25 to 35 mph across most of the
Northland Sunday morning to late evening.

As better low to mid-level stacked forcing with the now deep
surface low coincide Sunday evening, the highest rain shower
chances set up over the Northland. Most areas look to see a
widespread one-tenth to one-quarter inch, with local amounts up
to one-half inch, in this time period by Monday morning. As a
cooler air mass moves into the region behind the cold frontal
passage, a wind shift to westerly will occur Monday early
morning. Expect continued westerly winds gusting to 25 mph
Monday daytime with temperatures seasonable from 50 to 60 F.

A ridge axis builds into the Southern Canadian Plains Monday
daytime and creates strengthening surface high pressure over the
Upper Great Lakes for early next week. Expect a return to dry
weather and seasonable temperatures for most of Monday into
Wednesday night.

Later next week, a more active weather pattern is favored to set
up over the North-central US with global ensemble guidance
progging a couple of decent rounds of precipitation chances.
This pattern also looks to favor a return of mild fall
temperatures.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY/...
Issued at 626 AM CDT Sat Oct 11 2025

VFR conditions, outside of a few hours of early morning very
localized fog, will prevail at least for the first 18 hours of
this TAF period. Expect increasing southeasterly winds after
14Z today that last into the evening hours. A few rain showers
may move into north-central Minnesota Borderlands after 03Z and
building eastward towards the Brained Lakes and western Iron
Range towards daybreak Sunday. Expect a strong low-level jet
tonight to create a prolonged period low level wind shear after
03Z at many Northland terminals.

&&

.MARINE /FOR NEAR SHORE WATERS OF WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR/...
Issued at 256 AM CDT Sat Oct 11 2025

Easterly winds are expected today around 15 knots ahead of a
further shift to southeasterly forecast tonight over western
waters. These southeasterly winds then increase in speed first
for the far North Shore waters near Grand Marais where a Small
Craft Advisory is now in effect beginning at 10 PM this evening.
Eventual expansion of this Advisory is likely to be needed as
those gusty southerly winds overspread the Twin Ports and South
Shore Sunday daytime. This Sunday into Sunday night period could
be a prolonged period of conditions hazardous to small craft for
much of the western lake. A wind shift to westerly will occur
late Sunday night as a cold front passes over the lake.

For the open water discussion, refer to the NWS Marquette Area
Forecast Discussion at weather.gov/mqt.

&&

.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...None.
WI...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from 10 PM this evening to 4 PM CDT
     Sunday for LSZ140.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...NLy
AVIATION...NLy
MARINE...NLy