249
FXUS63 KDLH 060640
AFDDLH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Duluth MN
140 AM CDT Sat Jun 6 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Near critical to possible critical fire weather conditions for
  areas north of the Iron Range in far northern Minnesota Sunday
  afternoon and evening.

- Another period of severe weather potential sets up Monday,
  especially for north central Minnesota.

- Heat dome next week brings high confidence in at least
  Moderate (Level 2 of 4) heat-related impacts to entire region
  away from Lake Superior shorelines. Areas of Major (Level 3 of
  4) impacts north-central Minnesota and inland northwest
  Wisconsin.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 103 AM CDT Sat Jun 6 2026

Patchy dense fog early this morning will lead to pockets with
visibilities below a mile across the Northland, though mainly
south of Highway 2. Continued the trend of dry conditions for
today and Sunday. Combined with strong winds on Sunday, have
left the Fire Weather Watch in effect. Winds will also increase
on Lake Superior on Sunday, leading to hazardous swimming
conditions on beaches throughout the Twin Ports.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 110 PM CDT Fri Jun 5 2026

A weak boundary is pushing across the Northland this afternoon
and is accompanied by a moderately unstable environment.
Thunderstorms moving through the MN/WI stateline area will
continue eastward over the next few hours. Another round back
into western Minnesota present is being monitored for another
round in the Brainerd Lakes later this evening. In general,
expect continued chances of storms through sunset today for
areas south of the Iron Range in Minnesota and across northwest
Wisconsin. The strongest deep-layer wind shear around 30 knots
will support passably organized storm structures south of MN 210
in northern MN and south of US Hwy 2 in NW WI. Isolated severe
storms will be capable of producing damaging wind gusts up to 60
mph and large hail up to an inch in diameter before the
convective activity tracks south and east out of the region
tonight.

As the storms depart later tonight, skies will clear and winds will
become light and variable. This setup will promote the development
of fog and mist after midnight, which will linger into early
Saturday morning. On Lake Superior, marine fog is anticipated
to form and may bring limited visibilities to around 1 mile for
immediate mainland shoreline areas along the North and South
Shores.

High pressure builds across the Upper Midwest on Saturday, bringing
a period of sunny skies and dry conditions. Attention will
quickly shift to fire weather concerns north of the Iron Range
in far northern Minnesota, including Koochiching, North Itasca,
and Northern St. Louis counties. Unseasonably warm temperatures
climbing into the mid to upper 80s combined with very low low-
level moisture will cause relative humidity values to drop to 25
to 30 percent on Saturday afternoon. While winds remain light
under 10 mph, these low humidities over dry fuels may create
near-critical fire weather conditions. The potential for a
Special Weather Statement will need to be assessed in time.

On Sunday, an upper-level ridge moves eastward through the
central U.S., tightening the pressure gradient as low pressure
deepens in Canada. Southerly to southeasterly winds will
increase substantially across the Northland, gusting 25 to 30
mph. These breezy winds, still dry airmass over areas north of
the Iron Range and hot temperatures into the lower 90s
combining with still-dry fuels per land management agencies has
prompted a Fire Weather Watch for Sunday afternoon and evening.

The weekend heat breaks briefly on Monday as a shortwave trough
tracks through southern Canada. This system pulls a warm front
across the region Sunday night, drawing deep Gulf moisture
northward and triggering widespread wetting rainfall chances
between 50 and 90 percent on Monday. Saturated profiles will
support efficient rainfall producers, but we are also monitoring
the potential for severe weather conditions in northern
Minnesota Monday afternoon as the better forcing aligns with
diurnal instability.

By Tuesday, the brief heat reprieve clears out as period of even
more hot establishes itself firmly over the Great Lakes region
through the middle of next week. Multiple days of consecutive,
intense heat are forecast for interior portions of the Northland
away from the immediate Lake Superior shorelines. High
temperatures on Wednesday and Thursday are forecast into the low
to mid-90s, while southerly winds keep dew points elevated in
the upper 60s and 70s. This prolonged pattern brings high
confidence in widespread Moderate HeatRisk impacts, with Major
HeatRisk impacts likely across north-central Minnesota and
inland northwest Wisconsin, where heat index values may eclipse
100 degrees. Heat headlines may be needed in time.

Active southwest flow aloft on the periphery of the ridge will
maintain moderate (30-60% chance), diurnally-driven showers and
thunderstorms Tuesday through Thursday.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY/...
Issued at 1244 AM CDT Sat Jun 6 2026

VFR conditions expected tonight except for BRD and HYR, where
fog has started to develop. It will become dense near morning,
with at least a TEMPO of quarter mile visibilities. DLH could
see some fog early this morning as well, though confidence is
lower for dense fog and may only take a brief dip. VFR
conditions return in the morning and remain throughout the TAF
period along with light winds.

&&

.MARINE /FOR NEARSHORE WATERS OF WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR/...
Issued at 103 AM CDT Sat Jun 6 2026

Light and variable winds will be prominent today, with waves
only reaching 1 to 2 feet or less. Marine fog is forecast to
develop late tonight and persist into Saturday morning. Winds
shift easterly Saturday evening and then northeast on Sunday,
increasing to 10 to 15 knots with building waves in the
southwestern arm that may at times become hazardous to small
craft.

For the open water discussion, refer to the NWS Marquette Area
Forecast Discussion at weather.gov/mqt.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 103 AM CDT Sat Jun 6 2026

High pressure moves in late tonight into today with winds
becoming light and variable. No rainfall is expected this
weekend as that high pressure sets up over the Great Lakes this
weekend. Minimum relative humidity values will drop to 25 to 30
percent north of the Iron Range Saturday PM, creating possible
near- critical conditions this afternoon, and could warrant a
Special Weather Statement.

On Sunday, hot temperatures in the 90s arrive as breezy southeast
winds gusting up to 25 to 30 mph develop. Due to very low
humidity values around 25 percent and dry fuels, a Fire Weather
Watch is in effect for Sunday afternoon and evening for Northern
Itasca, Koochiching and Northern St Louis Counties in far
northern Minnesota. Wetting rain returns Monday afternoon.

See the Fire Weather Forecast product for a more thorough
breakdown of fire weather conditions.

&&

.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...Fire Weather Watch from Sunday afternoon through Sunday
     evening for MNZ010-011-018.
WI...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

UPDATE...KML
DISCUSSION...NLy
AVIATION...KML
MARINE...NLy/KML
FIRE WEATHER...NLy/KML