636
FXUS63 KDLH 100734
AFDDLH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Duluth MN
234 AM CDT Mon Aug 10 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Areas of fog early this morning will reduce visibility.

- Near-normal temperatures for August are expected through this
  week.

- There are chances for rain showers and non-severe
  thunderstorms about every other day.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 232 AM CDT Mon Aug 10 2026

Fog is developing across portions of the Northland, mainly in
our typical low-lying areas and river valleys. Visibility will
improve after sunrise, giving way to a pleasant August day.
Skies should be mostly sunny, with afternoon highs in the mid
70s to mid 80s. Skies may appear hazy due to elevated wildfire
smoke drifting across the area.

Much of this week we will have persistent west-northwest flow
across the region aloft, and weak systems diving through the
region will bring periodic chances for showers and storms. The
first of these should move through tonight, bringing a small
chance for mainly showers with isolated storms tonight into
early Tuesday. Tuesday will remain warm, with highs once again
in the mid 70s to mid 80s.

A stronger wave will bring higher chances for showers and
storms Tuesday night into Wednesday morning. Wednesday will be
cooler, with cloud cover helping to keep high temperatures in
the 70s to low 80s.

This pattern of northwest flow aloft continues through the
remainder of the week with a stalled frontal boundary parked
well to our south. This will keep temperatures near normal for
mid-August, featuring daytime highs in the 70s to lower 80s.
Overnight lows will be pleasantly cool, dropping into the 40s
and 50s. We will also see a persistent pattern of weak
disturbances passing through every couple of days.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 129 PM CDT Sun Aug 9 2026

For the rest of the day, mainly widely scattered rain showers
and possibly (10-20% chance only) an isolated non-severe
thunderstorm are forecast this afternoon for inland northwest
Wisconsin. The main hazard if any non-severe storm could come to
be would be a quick burst of localized heavy rainfall and
cloud to ground lightning. Meanwhile, smoke aloft departs
slowly to the southeast with some blue skies returning into this
afternoon across the Northland. Quiet conditions take over
tonight as temperatures dip slightly below normal under light
winds. However, the next round of smoke aloft moves in tonight
and sets up for Monday.

This incoming smoke layer will be creating sky cover for areas south
of US Highway 2 throughout the day on Monday. Aside from the hazy
skies, Monday will feature pleasant conditions with near-normal
daytime high temperatures climbing into the upper 70s to lower 80s
across the area. Humidity levels will drop a bit, creating a
comfortable feel for mid-August. Light variable winds in the morning
will eventually turn toward the west and northwest during the
afternoon hours.

Heading into the rest of the week, a persistent northwest flow aloft
continues as a stalled frontal boundary to our south keeps us on
the cooler side. This northwest flow continues to create near-
normal daytime high temperatures in the 70s to lower 80s, and
slightly below normal low temperatures each night falling into
the mid 40s to lower 50s.

Within this northwest flow will be weak and small-scale
disturbances helping create the off-and-on mainly rain shower
with embedded non-severe thunderstorm chances every 36 to 48
hours. Any showers and storms would likely be very localized and
short-lived in nature from this setup of shear, moisture and
instability-limited environmental progs in longer-range ensemble
guidance.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY/...
Issued at 1235 AM CDT Mon Aug 10 2026

Fog the main concern for the next several hours, with a mixture
of mid and high level clouds and generally light north winds at
less than 5kts. Visibilities should be reduced to MVFR
conditions for KDLH, KHIB, KBRD and KHYR. The lowest conditions
should be found at KHYR, where a period of IFR visibilities can
be expected. Fog should dissipate and visibilities to improve
between 12z and 13z for all sites. Once the fog dissipates, VFR
conditions are expected through the remainder of the TAF period.

&&

.MARINE /FOR NEARSHORE WATERS OF WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR/...
Issued at 232 AM CDT Mon Aug 10 2026

Winds across western Lake Superior are expected to increase out
of the southwest today, but still only 5 to 10 knots with gusts
up to 15 knots, with waves of 1 foot or less. Winds become light
and variable overnight before becoming northeast on Tuesday
around 5 to 10 knots, though gusts of 10 to 15 knots are
possible. Waves will remain 1 foot or less. No showers or storms
are expected today, but showers are possible tonight into
Tuesday. Thunderstorm chances return Tuesday night into
Wednesday.

For the open water discussion, refer to the NWS Marquette Area
Forecast Discussion at weather.gov/mqt.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 232 AM CDT Mon Aug 10 2026

A slightly drier airmass moves into the region today with
minimum relative humidity values dropping into the 35 to 45
percent range. West to northwest winds of 5 to 10 mph is
expected today. By Tuesday, moisture beginning to move back into
the area will bring the minimum RH values of 40 to 50 percent
with northwest winds of 5 to 10 mph. A pattern of periodic non-
severe thunderstorms will return every 36 to 48 hours this week,
bringing localized wetting rains.

See the Fire Weather Forecast product for a more thorough
breakdown of fire weather conditions.

&&

.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...None.
WI...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

UPDATE...LE
DISCUSSION...NLy
AVIATION...LE
MARINE...LE
FIRE WEATHER...LE