995
FXUS63 KDLH 242145
AFDDLH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Duluth MN
445 PM CDT Sat May 24 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Showers and thunderstorms diminish around sunset with mainly
  clear and dry conditions overnight. Areas of frost expected
  once again.

- Some wildfire smoke will work in tonight but isn`t expected to
  linger.

- Temperatures warm heading into the new week with some rain
  chances returning midweek.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 445 PM CDT Sat May 24 2025

Surface high pressure was in place over the region this
afternoon with an upper low riding over the top of it. This was
leading to widespread light shower activity with a few embedded
rumbles of thunder across much of the Northland. This activity
is being driven by daytime heating, so a downward trend is
expected as the sun sets. Clouds will thin out as well with
mainly clear skies for the overnight hours. With lows in the
30s and lower 40s, areas of frost are expected once again,
mainly across the Arrowhead into northwest Wisconsin. A Frost
Advisory has been issued for the areas most likely to see frost
tonight.

The HRRR continues to bring some higher smoke concentrations
through the region tonight into Sunday. This is from wildfires
across Manitoba. Sensors across the Red River Valley are showing
this reaching the ground. The highest concentrations are
expected to remain west of US53/I-35 but another batch of smoke
may arrive for Monday as well.

The area of high pressure will drift to the east Tuesday as an
upper low begins to meander from the Northern Plains into the
Upper Midwest. While not a cutoff low, weak flow aloft will lead
to a slow progression across the region. This will keep chances
for light showers in place for Tuesday through Thursday,
although the best chances and highest QPF looks to remain to our
south. Highs Monday will be in the 60s and 70s before cooling a
bit for Tuesday and Wednesday under the low. Warmer temperatures
then build back in for late week with 70s and lower 80s possible
by Friday.


&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY/...
Issued at 1244 PM CDT Sat May 24 2025

VFR ceilings prevail across the region early this afternoon with
light showers more widespread than previously expected. Haven`t
seen any visibility reductions where showers have passed over
sensors, so expecting VFR visibilities to prevail. Showers end
this evening with areas of fog developing after midnight. Have
added in some MVFR/IFR fog with this update for DLH, HIB and
HYR. Winds will generally be light and variable with high
pressure overhead, but may be a bit gustier this afternoon at
BRD which is more on the edge of the high.

&&

.MARINE /FOR NEAR SHORE WATERS OF WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR/...
Issued at 445 PM CDT Sat May 24 2025

High pressure will keep winds light and variable through the
weekend and into early next week. Winds will remain under 15
knots. A few showers and isolated thunderstorms (20-30% chance)
will persist along the North Shore through this afternoon.

For the open water discussion, refer to the NWS Marquette Area
Forecast Discussion at weather.gov/mqt.

&&

.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...Frost Advisory from 1 AM to 8 AM CDT Sunday for MNZ012-019-021-
     037.
WI...Frost Advisory from 1 AM to 8 AM CDT Sunday for WIZ001>004-008-
     009.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...BJH
AVIATION...BJH
MARINE...BJH