467
FXUS63 KDLH 102351
AFDDLH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Duluth MN
651 PM CDT Sun Aug 10 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Warm Monday before cooling a bit mid-week.

- A few showers and storms possible Monday evening/night into
  Tuesday. An isolated strong storm cannot be ruled out.

- Additional chances for showers and storms through the
  remainder of the week with warming temperatures.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 343 PM CDT Sun Aug 10 2025

Low pressure was located over northwestern Ontario this
afternoon with a stationary boundary extending southward into
the Upper Mississippi Valley. Mainly quiet conditions are
expected to prevail for this evening and tonight. However, an
isolated shower or rumble of thunder cannot be ruled out across
northwestern Wisconsin in the vicinity of the front, or across
our far northwestern areas with wraparound activity from the
low. If anything does develop, it will quickly diminish after
sunset. Smoke filters in overnight as temperatures cool into the
50s away from Lake Superior with low 60s near the lake.

Dry and continued warm conditions will be in place for Monday,
although dewpoints will be in the low 60s, so it shouldn`t be
too muggy like we saw last week. Highs will be in the lower 80s.
A shortwave will move through the Upper Midwest for Monday night
into Tuesday bringing chances for showers and thunderstorms.
There may be a window for a few strong to marginally severe
storms Monday evening across parts of Koochiching and Itasca
counties as a surface cold front starts to enter the area. CAPE
will be around 1000 J/kg with effective shear near 30 knots.
This mainly looks to be a damaging wind threat with DCAPE around
800 J/kg and winds aloft around 60 knots to mix down. Some small
hail will be possible, but shear doesn`t look favorable for any
severe hail along with marginal mid-level lapse rates. A few
showers and non-severe storms may linger into Tuesday as the
trough axis swings through. Cooler air will arrive behind the
front with highs for Tuesday and Wednesday mainly in the 70s
with some spotty low 80s.

Generally zonal flow will set up aloft for the remainder of the
week before becoming northwesterly for the weekend. This pattern
will see warmer temperatures return starting Thursday with some
of the warmest temperatures Friday across southern areas which
may reach into the middle 80s. Northwest flow then brings
slightly cooler temperatures for the weekend. There will be
periodic chances for showers and storms, mainly in the Wednesday
night into Thursday timeframe and again Friday and potentially
into the weekend. Given the increasing temperatures and moisture
for Friday, some strong to severe storms cannot be ruled out.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY/...
Issued at 650 PM CDT Sun Aug 10 2025

Predominately VFR conditions prevailing through this evening. A
few stray showers are possible near KINL through early evening,
and an isolated thunderstorm and a few showers in northwest
Wisconsin, but don`t anticipate these impacting KHYR. Areas of
fog are expected to develop once again tonight, with the best
potential at KHIB and KHYR. KHIB has potential for IFR
visibility or lower, with a 20-30% chance for LIFR visibility.
KHYR has a 30-40% chance to also see IFR or lower
visibility/ceilings. Expect the fog to burn off around the
12-14Z timeframe, with conditions improving back to VFR
afterwards.

Also expect some VFR diurnal cumulus development by
late morning/midday at most sites. Winds go calm to light and
variable tonight and then increase to 5 to 10 kt out of the
southwest tomorrow with gusts of 15-20 kt from mid/late morning
through the end of the TAF period. Smoke at the surface and
aloft will spread in from west to east starting late tonight
and tomorrow morning and persist into parts of tomorrow night,
with some visibility reductions expected. For now included 6SM
visibility with the smoke, but it`s possible that visibilities
could dip into the MVFR range in the smoke depending on
concentrations.

&&

.MARINE /FOR NEAR SHORE WATERS OF WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR/...
Issued at 343 PM CDT Sun Aug 10 2025

Winds will be southwesterly tonight before slowly becoming
northwesterly by Tuesday night at 5 to 15 knots. Some strong
gusts to around 20 knots will be possible along parts of the
North Shore north of Silver Bay and across the Outer Apostles on
Tuesday before diminishing Tuesday night. Areas of smoke may
lead to reduced visibility across the lake Monday into Monday
night with chances for showers and storms returning early
Tuesday morning. No strong or severe storms are currently
expected with lighting being the primary threat in any storms.

For the open water discussion, refer to the NWS Marquette Area
Forecast Discussion at weather.gov/mqt.

&&

.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...None.
WI...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...BJH
AVIATION...Rothstein
MARINE...BJH