Routine Space Environment Product (Daily)
Issued by NWS
Issued by NWS
529 FXXX12 KWNP 100031 DAYDIS :Product: Forecast Discussion :Issued: 2025 Jul 10 0030 UTC # Prepared by the US Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center # Product description and SWPC contact on the Web # http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/wwire.html # # Forecast Discussion # Solar Activity .24 hr Summary... Solar activity was at moderate levels due to an isolated M1.3 flare at 09/0425 UTC from Region 4136 (N19E64, Dai/beta-gamma). This region was the only contributer to the remaining flare activity which remained at C-class level. Region 4137 (N19W22, Cro/beta) experienced growth throughout the period but has remained quiet. All other regions have been stable or in decay. An approximate 17 degree filament eruption near N18W16 began at 09/0524 UTC. There is still little imagery to analyze the CME but the images that are available, show a very faint CME lifting to the NE. Impacts are unlikely but will analyze further as imagery becomes available. .Forecast... Solar activity is expected to be low with a further chance for M-class flares (R1-R2/Minor-Moderate) on 10-12 Jul, primarily due to the flare potential of Region 4136. Energetic Particle .24 hr Summary... The greater than 2 MeV electron flux reached high levels at 09/1425 UTC during the diurnal maxima and dropped below threshold at 09/1645 UTC. The greater than 10 MeV proton flux was at background levels. .Forecast... The greater than 2 MeV electron flux is expected to continue at moderate levels with a chance for high levels on 10 July, with normal to moderate levels 11-12 Jul. The greater than 10 MeV proton flux is expected to continue at background levels through 12 Jul. Solar Wind .24 hr Summary... Solar wind parameters relected waning influences from the negative polarity coronal hole (CH) high speed stream (HSS) that is now moving beyond the western limb. Total field remains around 5 nT with the Bz component decreasing to +/-3 nT. Solar wind speeds have decreased from 525 km/s to 400 km/s. Phi angle remained mostly negative (towards the Sun). .Forecast... Nominal solar wind conditions are anticipated to return on 09-11 Jul. The co-rotating interacting region associated with the positive polarity CH HSS is expected to arrive 12 Jul, an enhancement of the solar wind parameters will follow the arrival. Geospace .24 hr Summary... The geomagnetic field was quiet to unsettled. .Forecast... Mostly quiet conditions are expected 10-11 Jul. Unsettled to active conditions are likely starting 12 Jul as Earth moves into a geoeffective position to the positive polarity CH HSS.