984
FXXX12 KWNP 081231
DAYDIS

:Product: Forecast Discussion
:Issued: 2025 Dec 08 1230 UTC
# Prepared by the US Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center
# Product description and SWPC contact on the Web
# http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/wwire.html
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#             Forecast Discussion
#
Solar Activity

.24 hr Summary...
Solar activity reached high levels. Region 4298 (S16W57, Cso/beta)
produced an impulsive X1.1/2b (R3-Strong) flare at 08/0501 UTC. Region
4299 (N22W18, Dai/beta-gamma-delta) produced an M2.4/2n (R1-Minor) flare
at 08/0012 UTC and an M1.8/1n (R1-Minor) flare at 08/0654 UTC. This
region maintained mixed polarity, though has faded within the delta
portion.

Region 4294 (S16W35, Ekc/beta-gamma-delta) produced an M2.0/1n flare at
08/0036 UTC. The region increased in penumbral area among its
intermediate spots over the past 24 hours. Regions 4294 and 4296
(S14W23, Ekc/beta-delta) were the largest on the visible disk. New
Region 4304 (N26W01, Bxo/beta) was numbered. Only minor changes were
observed in the other numbered active regions.

Eruptions from the M1.8/1n flare at 08/0012 UTC and the X1.1/2b flare at
08/0501 UTC both appeared to be reabsorbed with no discernable CME
activity.

.Forecast...
M-class flares (R1-R2/Minor-Moderate) are likely over 08-10 Dec, with a
slight chance for X-class flares (R3/Strong), given past flare history
and the potential of current active regions on the disk.

Energetic Particle

.24 hr Summary...
The greater than 2 MeV electron flux in geosynchronous orbit reached
high levels with a peak flux of 1,452 pfu at 07/1545 UTC. The greater
than 10 MeV proton flux in geosynchronous orbit was elevated slightly
above background levels.

.Forecast...
The greater than 2 MeV electron flux is expected to reach high levels on
08-09 Dec, and then decrease to normal to moderate levels on 10 Dec.

A slight chance exists for a greater than 10 MeV proton flux enhancement
above 10 pfu (S1/Minor) through 10 Dec due to the eruptive potential of
multiple active regions across the visible disk.

Solar Wind

.24 hr Summary...
Solar wind parameters reflected the waning influence of a negative
polarity CH HSS and possible onset of an anticipated weak transient that
left the Sun on 04 Dec. A steady upward trend in total magnetic field
strength began after 07/1100 UTC and peaked around 10 nT at 07/1319 UTC.
The Bz component remained entirely positive. Solar wind speeds decreased
from ~500 km/s during that timeframe to ~375 km/s by periods end. Phi
was primarily oriented in a negative solar sector.

.Forecast...
The solar wind environment is expected to remain enhanced on 08 Dec due
to glancing effects from a CME that left the Sun on 04 Dec. Further
enhancements from a CME that left the Sun on 06 Dec are likely to begin
within an arrival window of late on 08 Dec to midday on 09 Dec.

Geospace

.24 hr Summary...
Geomagnetic activity was at quiet levels due to waning negative polarity
coronal hole influences.

.Forecast...
The geomagnetic field is likely to reach G1 (Minor) geomagnetic storm
levels on 08 Dec due to the influence of the periphery of a CME that
left the Sun on 04 Dec. G3 (Strong) geomagnetic storm levels are likely
on 09 Dec due to the anticipated influence of the CME that left the Sun
on 06 Dec. G1 conditions on 10 Dec are likely due to waning CME effects.