Routine Space Environment Product (Daily)
Issued by NWS
Issued by NWS
152 FXXX12 KWNP 080031 DAYDIS :Product: Forecast Discussion :Issued: 2025 Nov 08 0030 UTC # Prepared by the US Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center # Product description and SWPC contact on the Web # http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/wwire.html # # Forecast Discussion # Solar Activity .24 hr Summary... Solar activity again reached moderate levels due to an M1.7/1N flare at 07/0716 UTC from Region 4274 (N24E15, Ekc/beta-gamma-delta). Accompanying the flare were Type II (est 1169 km/s) and Type IV radio sweeps, and a very faint, asymmetric halo CME first noted in LASCO C2 imagery at ~07/0724 UTC. Analysis of this event determined an arrival of early on the 10th-UT day. Subsequent CMEs lifted off the north, first visible in C2 imagery at 07/1248 UTC. Modelling and analysis determined these CMEs to have a mostly northward trajectory, but a flanking edge is likely to also arrive early on the 10th. This region remains the most complex region on the visible disk and was responsible for the majority of the flare activity during the period. This included a C8.7/Sf flare at 07/0919 UTC, as well as multiple low to mid-level C-class flares. Other notable flare producing regions were Regions 4272 (N22W02, Hsx/alpha) and 4276 (S17E52, Dai/beta-gamma). .Forecast... Solar activity is expected to remain at moderate to high levels (R1/R2 - Minor-Moderate), with a chance for isolated X-class (R3-Strong) flares, on 08-10 Nov as the regions in the eastern hemisphere remain active and magnetically complex. Energetic Particle .24 hr Summary... The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geostationary orbit was at normal to moderate levels. The greater than 10 MeV proton flux remains at background levels. .Forecast... The greater than 2 MeV electron flux is expected to be at normal to moderate levels on 08 Nov, likely reaching high levels on 09-10 Nov following an increase in solar winds associated with the CME/CH HSS. Due to the complexity and history of Region 4274, there remains a slight chance of an S1 (Minor) radiation storm through 10 Nov. Solar Wind .24 hr Summary... Solar wind parameters reflected the likely combined arrival of a CME that was likely from 03-04 Nov and the co-rotating interacting region (CIR) ahead of the negative polarity CH HSS. Total field strength was mostly near 10 nT, but reached a peak near 17 nT after shock arrival at 07/0445 UTC. Bz was mostly northward. Solar winds began the period around 600 km/s before the shock enhancement pushed them to reach over 800 km/s by ~07/1030 UTC. Phi was mostly in a negative orientation early, then rotated in a neutral orientation after CME arrival. .Forecast... Solar wind parameters are expected to remain enhanced through 10 Nov with lingering CME/CH HSS influences and CME arrival on the 10th. Geospace .24 hr Summary... The geomagnetic field reached G1 (Minor) storm levels due to the combined effects of the aforementioned CME and CH HSS. .Forecast... G2 (Moderate) conditions are likely with the arrival of a CME on 08-09 Nov. Additional CMEs are likely to produce G1-G2 conditions on 10 Nov.