Routine Space Environment Product (Daily)
Issued by NWS
Issued by NWS
140 FXXX12 KWNP 291231 DAYDIS :Product: Forecast Discussion :Issued: 2025 Jun 29 1230 UTC # Prepared by the US Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center # Product description and SWPC contact on the Web # http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/wwire.html # # Forecast Discussion # Solar Activity .24 hr Summary... Solar activity was at low levels with a few C-class flares. AR 4122 (N13E11, Dai/beta) remains the largest region, but appears to be generally stable with no significant growth. All other regions were mainly quiet or in slight decay, including AR 4120 (N05W70, Dso/beta). A partial halo CME was observed beginning at 28/2112 UTC in LASCO C2 imagery. This event is likely associated with a C4.0 flare from AR 4126 around 28/1954 UTC. Additional modeling and analysis is ongoing to determine potential impacts, possibly on 01 July or later. .Forecast... A chance for R1-R2 (Minor-Moderate) radio blackouts due to isolated M-class flare activity will persist through 01 July. Energetic Particles .24 hr Summary... The greater than 2 MeV electron flux reached high levels with a peak flux of 4,190 pfu observed at 28/1605 UTC. The greater than 10 MeV proton flux was at background levels. .Forecast... The greater than 2 MeV electron flux will likely reach high levels intermittently through 30 June due to CH HSS effects and then potentially trend toward normal to moderate levels on 01 July. The greater than 10 MeV proton flux is expected to continue at background levels through the period. Solar Wind .24 hr Summary... Solar wind parameters reflected weakening negative polarity CH HSS influence. Total field averaged 4-6 nT. The Bz component underwent several southward deflections reaching a maximum of -4 nT. Solar wind speeds slowly decreased through the period and averaged from about 650 km/s to near 550 km/s. The Phi angle was in a predominantly negative solar sector. .Forecast... A less enhanced solar wind environment is expected to begin on 29 June under a weakened negative polarity CH HSS regime and then trend towards a more nominal environment on 30 June through 01 July. Geospace .24 hr Summary... The geomagnetic field was at quiet levels. .Forecast... Quiet to unsettled conditions are expected on 29 June, before becoming mostly quiet on 30 June. While generally quiet conditions are currently favored on 01 July, the CME associated with the aforementioned C4.0 flare could have produced an Earth-directed component, with arrival and potential impacts as soon as 01 July.