Routine Space Environment Product (Daily)
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083
FXXX12 KWNP 141231
DAYDIS

:Product: Forecast Discussion
:Issued: 2025 Oct 14 1230 UTC
# Prepared by the US Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center
# Product description and SWPC contact on the Web
# http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/wwire.html
#
#             Forecast Discussion
#
Solar Activity

.24 hr Summary...
Solar activity reached moderate levels due to M-class flare activity.
Region 4246 (N22W37, Ekc/beta-gamma-delta) underwent significant
evolution, growing in overall size while gaining multiple new spots.
Subsequently, AR4246 was the main provider for activity which included
an M1.2 flare at 13/1318 UTC. Several CMEs with potential Earth-directed
components are in the mix at this time. Additional modeling efforts are
underway as of the time of this writing to perhaps confirm those
suspicions.

Other notable activity included a prominence eruption off the ENE
limb-first visible in LASCO C2 imagery after 14/0036 UTC. Given the
location of the event, initial analysis suggests this ejecta to be well
into foul-ball territory and not Earth-directed. Additional modeling
efforts are underway as of the time of this writing to perhaps confirm
this suspicion.

Slight decay was observed in the intermediate portion of Region 4248
(N07W06, Eko/beta-gamma-delta) as it grew in length. Regions 4247
(S12W71, Bxo/beta) and 4250 (N07E06, Cro/beta) were in decay as well.
The remaining regions were unremarkable in comparison. No new regions
were assigned numbers this period.

.Forecast...
A high chance for a few R1-2 (Minor-Moderate) radio blackouts, with a
slight chance for an isolated R3 (Strong) event, will persist through 16
Oct primarily due to the flare potential presented by AR4246.

Energetic Particle

.24 hr Summary...
The greater than 2 MeV electron flux reached high levels with a maximum
flux of 4,080 pfu observed at 13/1425 UTC. The greater than 10 MeV
proton flux remained at background levels during this period.

.Forecast...
The greater than 2 MeV electron flux is expected to continue reaching
high levels on 14 Oct before returning to normal do moderate levels on
15-16 Oct. There is a slight chance for a greater than 10 MeV proton
event above the S1 (Minor) levels through 16 Oct.

Solar Wind

.24 hr Summary...
Solar wind parameters continued to reflect the influence of a negative
polarity CH HSS. Total field decreased slightly from 6-7 nT to 4-5 nT.
The Bz component was +/- 6 nT at times, but was mostly near neutral or
northward for the majority of the period. Solar wind speeds finally
dipped below 600 km/s and phi was predominantly in the negative solar
sector.

.Forecast...
Solar wind parameters are expected to continue at enhanced levels,
although gradually waning, over the course of 14 Oct due to persistent
effects from the negative polarity CH HSS. Additional enhancements are
anticipated to begin by late on 15 due to CME arrivals from 11-12 Oct
originating from AR 4246.

Geospace

.24 hr Summary...
Geomagnetic field activity was quiet to active over the last 24 hours.

.Forecast...
The geomagnetic field will likely continue to reach active levels, with
perhaps a chance for an early G1 (Minor) storm period, on 14 Oct.
Activity is then expected to trend towards predominantly quiet to
unsettled levels until late on 15 Oct when active conditions are likely
once again as the CMEs from 11-12 Oct begin to impact the near-Earth
environment. G1 (Minor) geomagnetic storming is then likely on 16 Oct in
response to CME effects.