Routine Space Environment Product (Daily)
Issued by NWS
Issued by NWS
910 FXXX12 KWNP 111231 DAYDIS :Product: Forecast Discussion :Issued: 2025 Mar 11 1230 UTC # Prepared by the US Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center # Product description and SWPC contact on the Web # http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/wwire.html # # Forecast Discussion # Solar Activity .24 hr Summary... Solar activity was low with only low level C-class flaring observed. Region 4012 (S14W63, Cai/beta) continued to decay as it approached the SW limb. Slight growth was observed in Region 4019 (N07E25, Dai/beta-delta). New Regions 4022 (N08E54, Bxo/beta), 4023 (N25E65, Hsx/alpha), and 4024 (N05W47, Cro/beta) were numbered. No Earth-directed CMEs were observed. .Forecast... A chance remains for R1-R2 (Minor-Moderate) radio blackouts through 13 Mar as Region 4019 continues to develop. Energetic Particle .24 hr Summary... Over the weekend a coronal hole (CH) high speed stream (HSS) brought an influx of electrons to geostationary orbit. As the winds relax from what was around 600 km/s now down to 450 km/s, electrons are rebounding and the greater than 2 MeV electron flux at both GOES stations have crossed the 1000 pfu threshold. GOES 16 crossed at 10/1150 UTC and climbed to 2400 pfu during the diurnal maxima. With no notable flares, the greater than 10 MeV protons remained at background levels. .Forecast... With continued influence from negative polarity CH HSS through 16 Mar electrons are expected to continue to trend near or above threshold during the diurnal maxima. Although Region 4012 is moving into a favorable geoeffective position it has been exhibiting decay which will maintain low probabilities (1%) for an S1 (Minor) event. Therefore, the greater than 10 MeV proton flux is expected to remain at background levels through 13 Mar. Solar Wind .24 hr Summary... Solar wind parameters reflected waning influences of the negative polarity CH HSS. The total field remained around 4-7 nT with the Bz component oscillating between +/-5 nT. Wind speeds decreased from around 600 km/s to 475 km/s. The phi angle has had a few oscillations into the positive (away from the Sun) but has been mostly negative. .Forecast... Waning CH HSS influences are expected into 12 Mar as the current CH HSS moves beyond the west limb. Solar wind parameters are expected to become enhanced into 13 Mar as the next negative polarity CH begins to become geoeffective. Geospace .24 hr Summary... The geomagnetic field has been at quiet to unsettled levels as CH HSS influences wane. .Forecast... Quiet to unsettled levels with isolated active periods are expected through 12 Mar. Unsettled to active levels are expected on 13 Mar with the arrival of the next CH HSS.