696
FXXX12 KWNP 111231
DAYDIS

:Product: Forecast Discussion
:Issued: 2026 May 11 1230 UTC
# Prepared by the US Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center
# Product description and SWPC contact on the Web
# http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/wwire.html
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#             Forecast Discussion
#
Solar Activity

.24 hr Summary...
Solar activity reached moderate levels following an M5.7/2b flare at
10/1339 UTC, accompanied by Type-II (est. 650-1,736 km/s) and
Tenflare (550 sfu) radio emissions, from Region 4436 (N19E49,
Dao/beta-gamma). The associated partial halo CME, first visible at
10/1348 UTC off the east in LASCO C2 imagery, was modeled and determined
to largely be well east of the Sun-Earth line. However, when considering
the expanse of this event as evidenced by the EIT wave present in GOES
SUVI 195 imagery, a glancing blow or shock arrival from this event
cannot be completely ruled out for late 12 May through the early
portions of the 13 May UTC-day. Region 4432 (N14W63, Eki/beta-gamma)
maintained a mixed polarity configuration while gaining new spots in its
intermediate area. The remaining three numbered regions were relatively
stable and quiet.

.Forecast...
Solar activity is expected to be at predominately low levels over 11-13
May, with a high chance for M-class (R1-R2/Minor-Moderate) flares and a
slight chance for an X-class (R3-Strong or greater) flare.

Energetic Particle

.24 hr Summary...
The greater than 2 MeV electron flux was at normal to moderate levels.
The greater than 10 MeV electron flux was at background levels.

.Forecast...
The greater than 2 MeV electron flux is expected to remain at moderate
levels through 13 May. There is a slight chance for the greater than 10
MeV proton flux to reach S1 (Minor) levels on 11 May. Probabilities for
an S1 (Minor) event remain at a slight chance, but increase somewhat,
for 12-13 May with any shock arrival enhancement from the 10 May event
to the geostationary environment.

Solar Wind

.24 hr Summary...
The solar wind environment reflected waning positive polarity CH HSS
influences followed by the return of ambient conditions. Total magnetic
field strength reached 6 nT, while the Bz component remained near
neutral. Solar wind speeds underwent a decline from near 440 km/s to
near 380 km/s by the end of the period.

.Forecast...
Solar wind parameters are likely to continue the current trend of waning
positive polarity CH HSS influences for the remainder of 11 May and for
the majority of 12 May. An enhancement from the 10 May CME event is
possible by late on 12 May into early 13 May. Otherwise, ambient-like
conditions are anticipated to give way to another positive polarity CH
HSS regime by late on 13 May.

Geospace

.24 hr Summary...
The geomagnetic field was quiet.

.Forecast...
The geomagnetic field is expected to be at mostly quiet levels through a
majority of 12 May. Active conditions are possible, with a high chance
of G1 (Minor) periods, by late 12 May into early 13 May with any
glancing blow or shock arrival of the 10 May CME event. Unsettled to
active levels are then expected to continue through 13 May as positive
polarity CH HSS effects begin by mid to late day.