Routine Space Environment Product (Daily)
Issued by NWS
Issued by NWS
931 FXXX12 KWNP 131236 DAYDIS :Product: Forecast Discussion :Issued: 2025 Aug 13 1235 UTC # Prepared by the US Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center # Product description and SWPC contact on the Web # http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/wwire.html # # Forecast Discussion # Solar Activity .24 hr Summary... Solar activity decreased to low levels with only C-class flare activity. Region 4172 (N11W45, Eai/beta-gamma) underwent consolidation in its leading spots, exhibited slight decay in its trailing, and was the culprit for the majority of the flaring during the reporting period. Regions 4175 (N12W08, Cao/beta) and 4177 (N05W07, Cao/beta) gained additional simple spots, but remained relatively quiet. Region 4180 (S02E45, Dai/beta) showed signs of evolution as it gained additional spots with penumbra in its leading area and began producing C-class level acitivity. Region 4181 (S12W24, Cro/beta) rapidly emerged, forming rudimentary penumbra on its leading spots, and was numbered. New, simple spots were noted near N18W38, N08W14 and N09E77, but remain unnumbered at this time given their respective histories. No Earth-directed CMEs were observed in available coronagraph imagery. .Forecast... Solar activity is likely to continue at low levels through 15 August. However, a high chance for isolated M-class flares (R1-2/Minor-Moderate radio blackouts) will remain probable as well primarily due to the flare potential presented by AR 4172 in addition to the anticipated limb-viewing effects of Region 4178 (N09W76, Dsi/beta-gamma) as it begins its exit of the western limb. Energetic Particle .24 hr Summary... The greater than 2 MeV electron flux, as measured by the GOES-19 satellite, continued at high levels reaching an approximate peak of 3,160 partical flux units at 12/1510 UTC in response to sustained faster solar wind influences from the past several days. The greater than 10 MeV proton flux remained at background. .Forecast... Coronal hole high speed stream influences are forecast to remain geoeffective through 15 August. In response, the greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit is expected to continue to reach high levels (at or above 1,000 partical flux units) through the forecast period. The greater than 10 MeV proton flux is expected (S1 probability <10%) to remain at background levels through 15 August barring a significant event from Regions 4172 or 4178. Solar Wind .24 hr Summary... Solar wind parameters, as measured by the ACE spacecraft, reflected a continued, but weakening positive polarity coronal hole high speed stream regime. Total field gradually decreased from an average of 6-7 nT to 4-5 nT and the Bz component was mostly benign at +/- 5 nT. Solar wind speeds gradually declined from averages near 600-675 km/s to just under 500 km/s by periods end. Phi was predominantly in the positive solar sector with a few excursions into positive orientation. .Forecast... Continued, but overall wanining, positive polarity coronal hole high speed stream influences are likely through 15 August. Geospace .24 hr Summary... The geomagnetic field relaxed to unsettled levels with an isolated quiet period. .Forecast... Quiet to unsettled conditions, with isolated active periods, are expected to persist through 15 August under coronal hole high speed stream effects.