900
FXXX12 KWNP 021231
DAYDIS

:Product: Forecast Discussion
:Issued: 2025 Aug 02 1230 UTC
# Prepared by the US Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center
# Product description and SWPC contact on the Web
# http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/wwire.html
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#             Forecast Discussion
#
Solar Activity

.24 hr Summary...
Solar activity remained at low levels. Region 4155 (S08W60, Cro/beta)
produced an impulsive C3.4/Sf flare at 01/1817 UTC, the strongest of the
period. Region 4167 (N12W31, Dki/beta-gamma) remained the largest and
most complex on the disk, with continued areal growth observed over the
past 24 hours. New flux emergence was observed to the south of Region
4165 (N12W38, Cso/beta). The other active regions were either stable or
exhibited only minor changes. No Earth-directed CMEs were observed in
available coronagraph imagery.

.Forecast...
Solar activity is expected to be low with a chance for M-class flares
(R1-R2/Minor-Moderate) over 02-04 Aug.

Energetic Particle

.24 hr Summary...
The greater than 2 MeV electron flux reached high levels with a peak
flux of 1,386 pfu observed at 01/1540 UTC. The greater than 10 MeV
proton flux was steady at background levels throughout the period.

.Forecast...
The greater than 2 MeV electron flux is expected to be at moderate to
high levels on 02-03 Aug, likely returning to low to moderate levels by
04 Aug. The greater than 10 MeV proton flux is expected to continue at
background levels over 02-04 Aug.

Solar Wind

.24 hr Summary...
The solar wind environment remained slightly enhanced due to continued
influence from a negative polarity CH HSS. Total magnetic field strength
was between 4-8 nT. The Bz component briefly reached as far south as -7
nT. Solar wind speeds were slight elevated, with values mostly observed
between ~450-520 km/s. Phi angle was predominantly oriented in the
negative sector.

.Forecast...
Solar wind parameters are expected to continue a waning trend on 02 Aug
as the negative polarity CH HSS diminishes. Additional disturbances
cannot be ruled out on 02 Aug due to the 30 July CME event mentioned in
a previous discussion. Conditions are expected to continue to move
towards background levels over 03 Aug if no transient features become
geoeffective. Minor elevations are likely on 04 Aug due to the
anticipated influence of another, small, negative polarity CH HSS.

Geospace

.24 hr Summary...
The geomagnetic field was at quiet to unsettled levels.

.Forecast...
Quiet to unsettled levels are expected due to lingering CH HSS influence
as well as the possible July CME passage. Mostly quiet levels are
expected to return on 03 Aug under a near-background solar wind regime.
Unsettled levels are again likely on 04 Aug due to anticipated onset of
influence from another negative polarity CH HSS.