Routine Space Environment Product (Daily)
Issued by NWS
Issued by NWS
613 FXXX12 KWNP 151231 DAYDIS :Product: Forecast Discussion :Issued: 2026 Feb 15 1230 UTC # Prepared by the US Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center # Product description and SWPC contact on the Web # http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/wwire.html # # Forecast Discussion # Solar Activity .24 hr Summary... Solar activity remained at low levels. The largest flare of the period was C1.3 at 15/0727 UTC from a plage region located near S13W46. Region 4377 (N06E52, Cro/beta) developed a few additional rudimentary spots, while the remaining regions were stable or in decay. No Earth-directed CMEs were detected in available imagery. .Forecast... Solar activity is expected to be at low levels, with a slight chance for M-class (R1-R2/Minor-Moderate) flares through 17 Feb. Energetic Particle .24 hr Summary... The greater than 2 MeV electron flux reached moderate levels. The greater than 10 MeV proton flux remained at background levels. .Forecast... The greater than 2 MeV electron flux is expected to reach moderate levels on 15-16 Feb, before increasing to high levels on 17 Feb. The greater than 10 MeV proton flux is expected to continue at background levels through 17 Feb. Solar Wind .24 hr Summary... Solar wind parameters were consistent with the onset of CIR effects preceding positive polarity CH HSS influences. Total magnetic field strength reached a peak of 15 nT. The Bz component was sustained southward, by as much as -14 nT, between 14/1830-15/0120 UTC. Solar wind speeds steadily increased from a low of around 370 km/s to a peak of around 700 km/s by the end of the period. .Forecast... The solar wind environment is expected to remain enhanced through 17 Feb due to CIR influences, followed by the onset of positive polarity CH HSS influences. Weak CME enhancements are possible on 15 Feb as a CME from 11 Feb passes in close proximity. Geospace .24 hr Summary... The geomagnetic field reached G1 (Minor) storm levels in response to CIR effects preceding positive polarity CH HSS influences. .Forecast... Periods of G1-G2 (Minor-Moderate) geomagnetic storming are expected on 15 Feb due to CIR effects and the onset of positive polarity CH HSS influences. Weak CME enhancements are possible on 15 Feb as a CME from 11 Feb passes in close proximity. Periods of G1 (Minor) storming are likely on 16 Feb, with a chance for G2 (Moderate) storm periods, under continued positive polarity CH HSS influences. Active conditions are likely on 17 Feb as CH HSS influences begin to wane.