Routine Space Environment Product (Daily)
Issued by NWS
Issued by NWS
497 FXXX12 KWNP 090031 DAYDIS :Product: Forecast Discussion :Issued: 2025 Oct 09 0030 UTC # Prepared by the US Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center # Product description and SWPC contact on the Web # http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/wwire.html # # Forecast Discussion # Solar Activity .24 hr Summary... Solar activity was at low levels. Region 4232 (N02W91, Cho/beta) produced low level C-class flares as it began to exit the western limb. Region 4242 (S11W37, Bxo/beta) produced a C1.2 flare at 08/1248 UTC and underwent decay in its leading spots. Region 4247 (S11W00, Dro/beta) underwent evolution, developing rudimentary penumbra on both its poles. No Earth-directed CMEs were observed in available coronagraph imagery. .Forecast... A slight chance for R1-2 (Minor-Moderate) radio blackouts will remain for 09 Oct. R1-2 (Minor-Moderate) probabilities increase to a low chance on 10 Oct with the prospect of regions due to return. Energetic Particle .24 hr Summary... The greater than 2 MeV electron flux continued to reach high levels with a peak flux of 4,770 pfu. The greater than 10 MeV proton flux remained below the S1 (Minor) threshold over the past 24 hrs. .Forecast... The greater than 2 MeV electron flux is expected to remain at moderate to high levels due to post high speed stream influences through 09 Oct before returning to moderate levels on 10 Oct. The 10 MeV proton flux is expected to remain at background levels through 11 Oct. Solar Wind .24 hr Summary... Solar wind parameters reflected slightly enhanced conditions likely due to magnetic cloud influences. Total field was elevated at 7 to 10 nT while the Bz component was mostly southward from -5 to -6 nT. Solar wind speeds underwent a steady decrease ending the period near 340 km/s. Phi was predominantly in the positive solar sector. .Forecast... A return to nominal conditions is anticipated over the course of 09-10 Oct. The solar wind environment is expected to become enhanced and disturbed once again by late on 11 Oct due to recurrent, negative polarity CH HSS influences. Geospace .24 hr Summary... Geomagnetic field activity was at quiet to unsettled levels with an isolated active period. .Forecast... Geomagnetic field activity is expected to be at quiet to unsettled levels through 10 Oct. Active conditions are expected by late on 11 Oct as a negative polarity CH HSS becomes geoeffective.