Routine Space Environment Product (Daily)
Issued by NWS
Issued by NWS
166 FXXX12 KWNP 230031 DAYDIS :Product: Forecast Discussion :Issued: 2025 May 23 0030 UTC # Prepared by the US Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center # Product description and SWPC contact on the Web # http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/wwire.html # # Forecast Discussion # Solar Activity .24 hr Summary... Solar activity was at low levels. Region 4095 (S06W71, Dai/beta-gamma) produced the largest flare of the period, a C2.4 at 22/2241 UTC. The region has the most complex magnetic classification of the front-sided groups as a beta-gamma group. Region 4087 (N15W57, Hsx/alpha) underwent decay and lost its trailer spots. New Regions 4096 (N06E57, Hsx/alpha) and 4097 (S13E63, Cro/beta) were numbered this period. All other regions were either stable or in decay. There have been no Earth-directed CMEs in available coronagraph imagery. .Forecast... Solar flare activity is expected to remain low as most regions on the disk are fairly simple in their magnetic complexities. There remains a chance for R1-R2 (Minor-Moderate) through 25 May. Energetic Particles .24 hr Summary... Ongoing influence from the positive polarity CH HSS produced high flux levels with a peak of 1,643 pfu recorded at 22/1635 UTC. GOES-19 and GOES-18 have seen fluxes oscillating around the 1000 pfu during their respective diurnal maximas. The greater than 10 MeV proton flux has been at background levels. .Forecast... The greater than 2 MeV electron flux will remain at hgih levels through 25 May from the CH HSS. The greater than 10 MeV proton flux is expected to remain at background levels through 25 May. Solar Wind .24 hr Summary... Solar wind parameters reflected persistent CH HSS influence. Total field has been between 4-9 nT for most of the period while the Bz component oscillated between +7/-5 nT. Solar wind speeds gradually decreased from ~575 to ~475-500 km/s. Phi was mostly positive. .Forecast... Solar wind parameters will likely continue to see effects from the CH HSS through 25 May with waning influences 24 May. Model guidance indicates wind speeds will drop from around 520 km/s to 360 km/s during this transition. An enhancement of the solar wind is likely on 23 May due to a possible glancing blow from the filament eruption that occurred on 17 May. Geospace .24 hr Summary... The geomagnetic field has been at quiet levels. .Forecast... Quiet to unsettled conditions are likely through 25 May, with a chance for active levels, all due to continued effects from a positive polarity CH HSS stream and possible weak effects from arrival of the 17 May CME.