713
FXXX12 KWNP 170031
DAYDIS

:Product: Forecast Discussion
:Issued: 2026 Jul 17 0030 UTC
# Prepared by the US Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center
# Product description and SWPC contact on the Web
# http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/wwire.html
#
#             Forecast Discussion
#
Solar Activity

.24 hr Summary...
Solar activity was at low levels. The largest flare of the period was a
C5.2 at 16/2135 UTC from an area around the SE limb. Region 4490
(N15E17, Bxo/beta) exhibited minor decay while the remaining three
regions were stable throughout the period. Other activity included a
filament eruption near S05W32 at ~16/0530 UTC, though the bulk of
material appears to have been reabsorbed. No Earth-directed CMEs were
detected in available coronagraph imagery.

.Forecast...
Solar activity is expected to reach low levels on 17-19 Jul, with a
chance for M-class flares (R1-R2/Minor-Moderate).

Energetic Particle

.24 hr Summary...
The greater than 2 MeV electron flux reached high levels. The greater
than 10 MeV proton flux was steady at background levels.

.Forecast...
The greater than 2 MeV electron flux is expected to reach high levels
on 17-19 Jul. The greater than 10 MeV proton flux is expected to persist
at background levels through 19 Jul.

Solar Wind

.24 hr Summary...
Solar wind parameters were mildly enhanced under positive polarity CH
HSS influences. Total magnetic field strength reached 7 nT, while the Bz
component ranged between +4/-6 nT. Solar wind speeds were steady at
around 400 km/s. The phi angle was mostly positive throughout the
period.

.Forecast...
The solar wind environment is expected to remain slightly enhanced over
17-18 Jul with positive polarity CH HSS influences. Background
conditions are likely to prevail on 19 Jul.

Geospace

.24 hr Summary...
The geomagnetic field was at quiet and unsettled levels under weak
positive polarity CH HSS influences.

.Forecast...
The geomagnetic field is likely to be quiet and unsettled levels on
17-18 Jul under weak positive polarity CH HSS influences. Mostly quiet
conditions are likely to prevail on 19 Jul.