Routine Space Environment Product (Daily)
Issued by NWS
Issued by NWS
358 FXXX12 KWNP 120031 DAYDIS :Product: Forecast Discussion :Issued: 2025 Nov 12 0030 UTC # Prepared by the US Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center # Product description and SWPC contact on the Web # http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/wwire.html # # Forecast Discussion # Solar Activity .24 hr Summary... Solar activity reached high levels (R3-Strong) again this period, due to another X-class flare from Region 4274 (N24W37, Ekc/beta-gamma-delta). The impulsive X5.1/3B flare peaked at 11/1004 UTC. This event had an associated Type-II (1350 km/s) radio sweep, an F10.7 cm radio burst (10,000 sfu), and a Castelli-U radio signature. An associated asymmetric halo CME was observed beginning at 11/1024 UTC with the bulk of the ejecta having a NW bias. Modelling of the CME indicated an arrival time mid to late on 12 Nov. Region 4274 exhibited slight growth and movement along the inversion lines in the southern and eastern edges of the intermediate and trailing spots. Magnetic shearing along these inversion lines could lead to further X-class activity. Slight growth was observed in Regions 4277 (S07W02, Dsi/beta) and 4280 (S09E49, Bxi/beta). New spots emerged in the SW quadrant and was numbered as 4281 (S13W49, Bxo/beta). The rest of the spot groups were either stable or in decay. .Forecast... Solar activity is expected to be moderate (R1-R2, Minor-Moderate) with further X-class (R3-Strong) activity likely on 12-14 Nov due to the flare potential of Region 4274. Energetic Particle .24 hr Summary... The greater than 2 MeV electron flux showed an increase above high levels at 11/1025 UTC coinciding with a higher energy proton flux increase indicating contamination. The greater than 10 MeV proton flux began to increase after 10/1020 UTC following the X1.2 flare at 10/0919 UTC. S1 (Minor) levels were reached at 10/1125 UTC. Following the X5.1/3B flare at 11/1004 UTC, flux levels began to increase further, increasing above the S2 (Moderate) level at 11/1225 UTC. A current peak flux of 157 pfu was observed at 11/1505 UTC. Additionally, the 100 MeV proton flux levels exceeded the 1 pfu threshold at 11/1020 UTC, reaching a peak of 29.1 pfu at 11/1635 UTC. .Forecast... The greater than 2 MeV electron flux is expected to be at normal to moderate levels on 12-14 Nov with the arrivals of the 09-11 CMEs. The greater than 10 MeV proton flux is expected to continue above S1-S2 (Minor-Moderate) levels on 12-13 Nov due to shock enhancements by the arrival of the 09-11 CMEs on 12 Nov. S1 (Minor) level are likely on 14 Nov. Solar Wind .24 hr Summary... Solar wind speed decreased from 488 km/s to near 400 km/s. Total field ranged from 4-7 nT while the Bz component was between +/-3 nT. Phi angle was negative. At 11/2212 UTC, an IP shock passage was observed at the ACE spacecraft, likely the arrival of the 09 Nov CME. Solar wind speed increased to 536 km/s along with an increase in total field to 13 nT. At 11/2337 UTC, total field Bt increased to about 60 nT while the Bz component dipped south to about -55 nT. Wind speed displayed a rapid increase from about 464 km/s to 741 km/s. Density and temperature values indicated a rapid increase as well. .Forecast... Solar wind parameters are expected to be enhanced on 12 Nov due to persistent activity from the 09 Nov CME followed by the arrival of the 10 Nov CME. Further enhancement is expected mid to late on 12 Nov with the arrival of a much faster CME from 11 Nov. Modelling of the 11 Nov CME indicated that solar wind speeds could reach or exceed 1,000 km/s. Activity will likely continue through midday on 13 Nov and slowly diminish thereafter. Geospace .24 hr Summary... The geomagnetic field was at quiet to G1 (Minor) levels. A deviation of 17 nT was observed at the Boulder magnetometer site at 11/2300 UTC in response to the aforementioned IP shock passage. .Forecast... G1-G4 (Minor-Strong) levels are likely early on 12 Nov with the arrival of the 09 and 10 Nov CMEs. By mid to late on 12 Nov, activity will likely increase to G3-G4 (Strong-Severe) storming with the arrival of the 11 Nov CME. G1-G3 (Minor-Strong) storm levels are likely to continue into 13 Nov as CME activity persists. Unsettled to G1 (Minor) levels are likely on 14 Nov as activity wanes.