233
FXXX12 KWNP 011231
DAYDIS

:Product: Forecast Discussion
:Issued: 2025 Aug 01 1230 UTC
# Prepared by the US Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center
# Product description and SWPC contact on the Web
# http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/wwire.html
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#             Forecast Discussion
#
Solar Activity

.24 hr Summary...
Solar activity was at low levels. Only low-level C-class X-ray activity
was observed. Region 4167 (N10W17, Dai/beta-gamma) developed into the
most complex region on the disk, with growth in both number of spots and
penumbral area. Only minor changes were observed in the remaining
numbered active regions on the visible disk. No Earth-directed CMEs were
observed in available coronagraph imagery.


.Forecast...
Solar activity is expected to be low with a chance for M-class flares
(R1-R2/Minor-Moderate) over 01-03 Aug.

Energetic Particle

.24 hr Summary...
The greater than 2 MeV electron flux reached high levels with a peak
flux of 1,104 pfu observed at 31/1355 UTC. The greater than 10 MeV
proton flux was steady at background levels throughout the period.

.Forecast...
The greater than 2 MeV electron flux is expected to be at normal to
moderate levels on 01-03 Aug, with a chance to again exceed the 1,000
pfu threshold on 01 Aug. The greater than 10 MeV proton flux is expected
to continue at background levels over 01-03 Aug.

Solar Wind

.24 hr Summary...
The solar wind parameters were indicative of a near-background regime.
Total magnetic field strength was between 4-8 nT. The Bz component
reached as far south was -7 but frequently fluctuating between positive
and negative over the past 24 hours. Solar wind speeds varied between
~400-500 km/s. Phi angle was predominantly negative.

.Forecast...
Solar wind parameters are expected to continue a waning trend on 01 Aug
as the negative polarity CH HSS diminishes. An additional disturbance
cannot be ruled out for 02 Aug due to the 30 July CME event mentioned in
a previous discussion. Conditions are expected to remain mostly near
background levels over 01-03 Aug if no transient features become
geoeffective.

Geospace

.24 hr Summary...
The geomagnetic field was at quiet to unsettled levels.

.Forecast...
Quiet to unsettled periods are expected to prevail on 01 Aug as CH HSS
effects gradually wane. Mostly quiet levels are expected on 02-03 Aug,
with a slight chance for an isolated active periods on 02 Aug, due to
the possible July CME passage.