Routine Space Environment Product (Daily)
Issued by NWS
Issued by NWS
926 FXXX12 KWNP 171231 DAYDIS :Product: Forecast Discussion :Issued: 2025 Jul 17 1230 UTC # Prepared by the US Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center # Product description and SWPC contact on the Web # http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/wwire.html # # Forecast Discussion # Solar Activity .24 hr Summary... Solar activity was at low levels. The largest flare was a C5.9 at 17/0928 UTC from Region 4136 (N21W30, Dko/beta-delta). Growth was observed in Regions 4136, 4142 (N01E16, Dai/beta-delta), 4143 (N25W18, Dai/beta-gamma), and newly numbered 4148 (S07W09, Bxo/beta). Regions 4136, 4142, and 4143 developed more magnetic complexity as the regions grew. No Earth-directed CMEs were observed. .Forecast... Solar activity is likely to reach moderate levels (R1-R2, Minor-Moderate) with a slight chance for X-class flaring (R3, Strong) through 19 Jul due to the flare potential of Regions 4136, 4139, 4142, and 4143. Energetic Particle .24 hr Summary... Continued influence from the positive polarity coronal hole (CH) high speed stream (HSS) has maintained high levels of electron flux at geostationary orbit. The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at GOES-19 reached a peak of 4,840 pfu at 16/1935 UTC. The greater than 10 MeV proton flux remained at background levels. .Forecast... Continued influence from the CH HSS will continue through 19 Jul. The greater than 2 MeV flux will be moderate to high, especially during the diurnal maxima, during this time. There is a slight chance for S1 (Minor) conditions through 19 Jul due to the flaring potential from multiple regions on the solar disk. Solar Wind .24 hr Summary... Solar wind parameters continued to be enhanced under positive polarity CH HSS influence. Total field was between 4-8 nT with the Bz component between +/-7 nT. Solar wind speeds increased from approximately 515 km/s to near 700 km/s. Phi angle was predominantly in the positive sector with brief oscillations into the negative sector. .Forecast... Solar wind parameters are expected to continue to be enhanced under CH HSS influence through 18 Jul and slowly diminish on 19 Jul. Geospace .24 hr Summary... The geomagnetic field was at quiet to G1 (Minor) storm levels due to persistent CH HSS effects. .Forecast... Quiet to active conditions are expected on 17-18 Jul as HSS activity persists. Quiet to unsettled levels are expected on 19 Jul as HSS conditions wane.