Routine Space Environment Product (Daily)
Issued by NWS
Issued by NWS
681 FXXX12 KWNP 080031 DAYDIS :Product: Forecast Discussion :Issued: 2026 Sep 08 0030 UTC # Prepared by the US Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center # Product description and SWPC contact on the Web # http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/wwire.html # # Forecast Discussion # Solar Activity .24 hr Summary... Solar activity was at low levels with C-class flare activity. Region 4530 (N19E19, Dri/beta) rapidly emerged this period, quickly forming rudimentary penumbra on both its poles and showing early signs for potential of mixed polarity in its intermediate region. Region 4524 (N12E13, Hax/alpha) produced at long duration C2.1 flare that peaked at 07/0901 UTC. This event resulted in coronal dimming and opening field lines as observed in GOES-19 SUVI 195 imagery beginning at approximately 07/0840 UTC. The resulting relatively narrow CME can be seen to the northeast in LASCO C2 coronagraph imagery beginning near 07/0936 UTC. Modeling of this event suggests that a bulk of the material from this event should pass to the north and behind Earths orbit. .Forecast... Solar activity is likely to be at low levels due to occasional C-class flare activity, with a slight chance for M-class flares (R1-R2/Minor-Moderate) through 10 Sep. Energetic Particle .24 hr Summary... The greater than 2 MeV electron flux returned to moderate levels. The greater than 10 MeV proton flux returned to background levels. .Forecast... The greater than 2 MeV electron flux is expected to be at normal to moderate levels through 09 Sep with a chance for a return to high levels on 10 Sep after CME arrivals. The greater than 10 MeV proton flux is expected to remain at or near background levels through 10 Sep. Solar Wind .24 hr Summary... Solar wind parameters reflected positive polarity coronal hole high speed stream onset. Total field increased to peaks reaching 16-17 nT. The Bz component of the IMF underwent several extended southward deflections reaching -10 to -13 nT. Solar wind speeds increased from ambient-like levels to approximately 480-560 km/s. Phi became predominantly positive after 07/0454 UTC. .Forecast... Enhanced solar wind conditions due to positive polarity CH HSS influences are expected to continue through 09 Sep. Further enhancements are likely on 08 Sep into 09 Sep with the anticipated arrival of CMEs that left the Sun on 05 and 06 Sep. Geospace .24 hr Summary... The geomagnetic field reached active levels under positive polarity CH HSS effects. .Forecast... G1 (Minor) geomagnetic storms are likely through 09 Sep due to combined positive polarity CH HSS effects and the anticipated arrival of CMEs that left the Sun on 05 and 06 Sep. Quiet to unsettled levels are expected on 10 Sep at aforementioned disturbances gradually wane.