Routine Space Environment Product (Daily)
Issued by NWS
Issued by NWS
360 FXXX12 KWNP 120031 DAYDIS :Product: Forecast Discussion :Issued: 2026 May 12 0030 UTC # Prepared by the US Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center # Product description and SWPC contact on the Web # http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/wwire.html # # Forecast Discussion # Solar Activity .24 hr Summary... Solar activity reached low levels this period. Region 4436 (N19E42, Dao/beta-gamma) had slight growth in penumbral area and contributed C-class activity. Region 4432 (N14W70, Eki/beta-gamma) maintained a mixed polarity configuration while gaining new spots in its intermediate area, while also producing C-class flares. The remaining three numbered regions were relatively stable and quiet. .Forecast... Solar activity is expected to be at predominately low levels over 12-14 May, with a high chance for M-class (R1-R2/Minor-Moderate) flares, and a decreasing chance for an X-class (R3-Strong or greater) flare. Energetic Particle .24 hr Summary... The greater than 2 MeV electron flux was at normal to moderate levels. The greater than 10 MeV electron flux was at background levels. .Forecast... The greater than 2 MeV electron flux is expected to remain at moderate levels through 13 May. There is a slight chance for the greater than 10 MeV proton flux to reach S1 (Minor) levels on 12 May. Solar Wind .24 hr Summary... The solar wind environment reflected ambient conditions. Total magnetic field strength reached 8 nT, while the Bz component was variable. Solar wind speeds were generally between 375-400 km/s. Phi was positive. .Forecast... Solar wind parameters are expected to remain at ambient levels until late on 12 May to early on 13 May when a glancing shock is possible from the 10 May CME. A positive polarity CH HSS is expected to also enhance solar wind parameters on 13-14 May. Geospace .24 hr Summary... The geomagnetic field was quiet. .Forecast... The geomagnetic field is expected to be at mostly quiet levels through a majority of 12 May. Active conditions are possible, with a high chance of G1 (Minor) periods, by late 12 May into early 13 May with any glancing blow or shock arrival of the 10 May CME event. Unsettled to active levels are then expected to continue on 14 May with positive polarity CH HSS effects.