Routine Space Environment Product (Daily)
Issued by NWS
Issued by NWS
466 FXXX12 KWNP 071231 DAYDIS :Product: Forecast Discussion :Issued: 2026 Jul 07 1230 UTC # Prepared by the US Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center # Product description and SWPC contact on the Web # http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/wwire.html # # Forecast Discussion # Solar Activity .24 hr Summary... Solar activity returned to low levels, with only low-level C-class flaring observed. This flaring consisted primarily of occulted events from beyond the west limb, alongside occasional flares from Region 4482 (S09E49, Eki/beta-gamma). The largest event of the period was a C3.8 flare on the northwest limb, likely from old Region 4479 (N17, L=90). There are currently three numbered regions on the visible disk. Region 4482 showed the most significant development with new spot growth in its intermediate sections, consolidation within its leading group, and an overall expansion in spatial extent and complexity. Region 4481 (N14E14, Bxo/beta) consists of unremarkable pores that showed minor new emergence following a period of decay. Region 4485 (N11W07, Bxo/beta) is showing some new flux emergence as well and is characterized by spots appearing and disappearing quickly. No Earth-directed CMEs were observed in available coronagraph imagery. .Forecast... Solar activity is likely to remain at low to moderate levels through 09 July. The probability of M-class (R1-R2/Minor-Moderate) or greater flaring drops on 08 Jul as old Regions 4478 (S05, L=83) and 4479 continue their transit beyond the western limb. Energetic Particle .24 hr Summary... The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit reached high levels, with a peak flux of 2,940 pfu observed at 07/1130 UTC. The greater than 10 MeV proton flux at geosynchronous orbit remained at background levels. .Forecast... The greater than 2 MeV electron flux is expected to remain at moderate to high levels 07-09 July. A slight chance for an S1 (Minor) or greater solar radiation storm remains for 07 July as old region 4478 is presently in a highly geoeffective position just beyond the west limb. Solar Wind .24 hr Summary... Solar wind parameters continued trending back toward nominal levels. Solar wind speeds held steady through most of the period, averaging near 425 km/s, outside of a distinct and temporary enhancement observed around 06/1700 UTC that drove speeds to a peak of nearly 550 km/s. Total magnetic field strength (Bt) remained stable between 5 and 7 nT. The North-South (Bz) component was slightly variable, with early southward deflections as far down as -5 nT before transitioning northward at approximately 07/0000 UTC. The phi angle was predominantly in the positive (away from the Sun) orientation. .Forecast... Slightly enhanced solar wind parameters are expected to continue a gradual decline toward ambient background speeds through the remainder of 07 July and early 08 July. Enhanced and disturbed conditions are likely to return on 09 July, with initial enhancements arriving as early as late on 08 July, due to the anticipated impact of a co-rotating interaction region (CIR) ahead of a negative polarity coronal hole high-speed stream (-CH HSS). Geospace .24 hr Summary... Geomagnetic field activity was quiet. .Forecast... Geomagnetic conditions are expected to remain mostly quiet to unsettled through 08 July. Conditions are anticipated to increase to unsettled and active levels on 09 July under the onset of -CH HSS influences, with a slight chance for isolated periods of G1 (Minor) storming possible.