Routine Space Environment Product (Daily)
Issued by NWS
Issued by NWS
397 FXXX12 KWNP 161231 DAYDIS :Product: Forecast Discussion :Issued: 2025 Aug 16 1230 UTC # Prepared by the US Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center # Product description and SWPC contact on the Web # http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/wwire.html # # Forecast Discussion # Solar Activity .24 hr Summary... Solar activity has been at low levels with C-class flares observed from Region 4172 (N08W79, Cai/beta). There are 11 regions on the disk with most being simple in magnetic complexity. Rapid growth was observed in Region 4185 (N17W56, Bxo/beta) from an area of plage to a simple beta group. All remaining regions were quiet and stable. No Earth-directed CMEs were observed in available coronagraph imagery. .Forecast... Solar activity is expected to continue at low levels on 16-17 August becoming likely on 18 August. There is a chance for moderate (R1-minor) levels on 16-17 August decreasing to a slight chance on 18 August. Energetic Particle .24 hr Summary... The greater than 2 MeV electron flux reached high levels with a maximum flux of 4,260 pfu at 15/1900 UTC. The greater than 10 MeV proton flux remained at background level. .Forecast... The greater than 2 MeV electron flux is expected to be at moderate to high levels through 18 Aug. The greater than 10 MeV proton flux is expected to remain at background levels through 18 Aug. Solar Wind .24 hr Summary... Solar wind parameters reflected nominal conditions. Total field Bt was a steady 4-6 nt while the Bz component weakly varied between +/-4 nT. Solar wind speeds gradually decreased from an initial high of about 425 km/s to periods end of near 350 km/s. The phi angle was in a positive orientation. .Forecast... Nominal conditions are expected through 17 August. Enhanced solar wind parameters are likely on 18 Aug due to the arrival of a CIR ahead of a recurrent, negative polarity CH HSS. Geospace .24 hr Summary... The geomagnetic field has been at quiet levels. .Forecast... As CH HSS influences wane, mostly quiet to unsettled conditions are expected to persist through 17 Aug. Unsettled to active levels are likely on 18 Aug due to the aforementioned CIR and subsequent negative CH HSS.