Routine Space Environment Product (Daily)
Issued by NWS
Issued by NWS
758 FXXX12 KWNP 230031 DAYDIS :Product: Forecast Discussion :Issued: 2025 Aug 23 0030 UTC # Prepared by the US Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center # Product description and SWPC contact on the Web # http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/wwire.html # # Forecast Discussion # Solar Activity .24 hr Summary... Solar activity increased to moderate (R1-Minor) levels. At 22/1858 UTC, a long-duration M1.7 was observed off the ESE limb. The source of this event was most likely from just behind the limb. Associated with this event was a Type II radio emission at 22/1847 UTC with an ejection speed of 521 km/s. The largest flare observed on the visible disk was a C2.3 at 21/1556 UTC from Region 4191 (N11E62, Cho/beta). Region 4191 was responsible for the majority of the low level C-class flaring. Several trailing spots became visible in the region as it rotated further into view. The rest of the spot groups were either stable or in decay. No Earth-directed CMEs were observed. .Forecast... Solar activity will likely be at low levels, with a slight chance for M-class flares through 23 Aug due to the anticipated return of old active regions. M-class flare probabilities increase slightly to a chance for an isolated event, most likely from the east limb, on 24 Aug as old active regions return to view. Energetic Particle .24 hr Summary... The greater than 2 MeV electron flux was at low to moderate levels. The greater than 10 MeV proton flux was at background levels. .Forecast... The greater than 2 MeV electron flux is expected to be at moderate to high levels through 25 Aug. With the recent far-sided halo CME and the more recent long-duration M1.1 flare near the SE limb this period, there is a slight chance for the greater than 10 MeV proton flux to reach S1 (Minor) levels on 23 Aug, with chances slowly decreasing through 25 Aug. Solar Wind .24 hr Summary... Solar wind parameters indicated a mostly nominal environment. Total field Bt ranged from 3-6 nT, while the Bz component was mostly northward with some southward excursions to -5 nT early in the period. Solar wind speeds were at a +/- 25 km/s average of 515 km/s. The phi angle was in a mostly negative orientation. .Forecast... A mostly nominal solar wind environment is likely through 24 Aug. Solar wind enhancements are expected late on 25 Aug as a new negative polarity CH HSS moves into a geoeffective position. Geospace .24 hr Summary... The geomagnetic field was quiet to unsettled. .Forecast... The geomagnetic field is expected to be at mostly quiet conditions on 23 and 24 Aug. Unsettled to active conditions are expected late on 25 Aug due to a new negative polarity CH HSS.