Routine Space Environment Product (Daily)
Issued by NWS
Issued by NWS
940 FXXX12 KWNP 290031 DAYDIS :Product: Forecast Discussion :Issued: 2025 Nov 29 0030 UTC # Prepared by the US Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center # Product description and SWPC contact on the Web # http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/wwire.html # # Forecast Discussion # Solar Activity .24 hr Summary... Solar activity reached high levels when new Region 4294 (S16E78, Dso/beta) produced an impulsive M5.9 flare (R2-Moderate), with a Type-II radio sweep (828 km/s) and a 240 sfu Tenflare, at 28/2222 UTC. The remaining active regions on the visible disk were mostly stable or in gradual decay. No Earth-directed CMEs were observed in available coronagraph imagery. .Forecast... M-class flares (R1-R2/Minor-Moderate) are likely, with a slight chance for an X-class flare (R3-Strong), over 29 Nov-01 Dec. Energetic Particle .24 hr Summary... The greater than 2 MeV electron flux reached high levels with a peak flux of 14,759 pfu observed at 28/1625 UTC. The greater than 10 MeV proton flux was at background levels. .Forecast... The greater than 2 MeV electron flux is expected to reach high levels on 29 Nov-01 Dec. The greater than 10 MeV proton flux is expected to remain at background levels through 01 Dec. Solar Wind .24 hr Summary... Solar wind parameters continued to reflect the influence of a positive polarity coronal hole high speed stream. Total magnetic field strength was mostly between 5-7 nT, and the Bz component reached as far south as -5 nT frequently throughout the reporting period. Solar wind speeds were elevated but in gradual decline with wind speeds between 650-700 km/s slow decreasing to ~600 km/s by the end of the UT day. Phi angle was predominantly oriented in the positive solar sector. .Forecast... Positive polarity CH HSS influences are expected to wane over 29-30 Nov, followed by a return to ambient levels on 01 Dec. Geospace .24 hr Summary... The geomagnetic field was at mostly active levels under continued positive polarity CH HSS influences. .Forecast... The geomagnetic field is expected to reach active levels on 29 Nov, and quiet to unsettled levels on 30 Nov, as positive polarity CH HSS influences wane. Mostly quiet conditions are expected to prevail on 01 Dec with the return of an ambient solar wind environment.