Routine Space Environment Product (Daily)
Issued by NWS
Issued by NWS
634 FXXX12 KWNP 040031 DAYDIS :Product: Forecast Discussion :Issued: 2025 Oct 04 0030 UTC # Prepared by the US Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center # Product description and SWPC contact on the Web # http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/wwire.html # # Forecast Discussion # Solar Activity .24 hr Summary... Solar activity was at moderate levels. Region 4236 (N10W29, Dhc,beta-gamma) produced the strongest event of the period, an M1.5/2n (R1-Minor) flare at 03/0523 UTC. Associated with the flare was a faint CME observed in SOHO LASCO/C2 coronagraph imagery. WSA-Enlil model output suggested an arrival at Earth on 08 Oct. Additional activity included a Type-II radio sweep with an estimated speed of 1,618 km/s and a Type-IV radio sweep beginning at 03/1112 UTC. Early analysis of GOES-19 SUVI imagery suggests it was related to field line movement originating just beyond the western limb. Another Type-II radio sweep was observed at 03/1451 UTC and also thought to be associated with activity near the W limb. Finally, a filament eruption was observed near the NE limb beginning at ~03/1530 UTC. Further coronagraph imagery is needed to determine if a CME was associated with the activity. .Forecast... Solar flare activity is likely to remain at moderate levels (R1-R2/Minor-Moderate), with a slight chance for strong (R3-Strong), over 04-06 Oct. Energetic Particle .24 hr Summary... The greater than 2 MeV electron flux measured by the GOES-19 satellite reached high levels, with a peak flux of 7,331, due to a persistent +CH HSS effects. The greater than 10 MeV proton fluxes, as measured by the GOES-18 satellite, remained below the S1 (Minor) threshold over the past 24h. .Forecast... The greater than 2 MeV electron flux is expected to remain at high levels as the CH HSS continues to be geoeffective over 04-06 Oct. The greater than 10 MeV proton flux is expected to continue at or near background level over the next few days, with a low (5%) chance for a proton event, due to the presence of magnetically complex active regions on the visible disk. Solar Wind .24 hr Summary... The solar wind near Earth continued to be dominated by CH HSS conditions, with Phi angle values representative of the positive sector and speeds varying between 600-800 km/s during the period. The total Interplanetary Magnetic Field (Bt) remained around 5 nT, with north/south (Bz) component between -/+ 5 nT. .Forecast... Solar wind parameters are expected to continue at elevated, but waning levels over 04-06 Oct due to persistent CH HSS influence. Geospace .24 hr Summary... The geomagnetic activity reached G1 (Minor) storming levels due to ongoing CH HSS influence. .Forecast... The geomagnetic field is expected to reach active levels, with a chance for G1 (Minor), over 04-06 Oct under continued CH HSS influence.