Routine Space Environment Product (Daily)
Issued by NWS
Issued by NWS
292 FXXX12 KWNP 141231 DAYDIS :Product: Forecast Discussion :Issued: 2025 Nov 14 1230 UTC # Prepared by the US Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center # Product description and SWPC contact on the Web # http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/wwire.html # # Forecast Discussion # Solar Activity .24 hr Summary... Solar activity reached high levels with an X4.0 flare from Region 4274 (N24W71, Ekc/beta-gamma-delta). Accompanying this flare was a Type II radio emission (1525 km/s) reported by the San Vito observatory and a 10.7 cm Tenflare burst of 1100 sfu. A CME is first visible off the E limb at 14/0800 UTC. Analysis and modelling of this event will occur as updated imagery becomes available. Slight decay was observed in the intermediate and trailing spots of AR 4274 with some growth in its leader spots. There was limited motion along the inversion lines within the intermediate and trailing spots. Slight growth was also observed in Region 4280 (S08E15, Cro/beta). The rest of the spot groups were either stable or in decay and magnetically simple. Other activity included an approximate 30 degree filament eruption, centered near S28E25, that began at 13/1700 UTC. Although most of the material appeared to be reabsorbed. Analysis of this event resulted in a near miss behind Earths orbit on 16 Nov. .Forecast... Solar activity is expected to be low with moderate levels likely (R1-R2/Minor-Moderate) and a chance for X-class (R3-Strong) activity on 14-16 Nov, mostly due to the flare potential of Region 4274. Energetic Particle .24 hr Summary... The greater than 2 MeV electron flux briefly reached high levels with a peak flux of 1,140 pfu observed at 13/1510 UTC. The greater than 10 MeV protons decreased below the S1 (Minor) threshold at 13/1650 UTC. S1 levels were reached again at 14/0920 UTC shortly after the aforementioned X4.0 flare. .Forecast... The greater than 2 MeV electron flux is expected to reach moderate to high levels on 14-16 Nov. The greater than 10 MeV proton flux is expected to continue at S1 levels on 14 Nov. There is a chance for S1 (Minor) solar radiation storming on 15-16 Nov. Solar Wind .24 hr Summary... Solar wind parameters reflected CME activity that left the sun on 11 Nov. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 800 km/s at 13/0105 UTC and has gradually decreased to near 600 km/s. Total field reached 11 nT early in the period and has decreased to near 6 nT. The Bz component has been predominantly oriented north. Phi rotated into a positive sector after 13/1630 UTC. .Forecast... Solar wind parameters are expected to continue to be enhanced but waning through 14 Nov as the solar wind gradually returns to nominal levels. Speeds in the 500-600 km/s range are likely into 15 Nov. By mid to late on 16 Nov, a co-rotating interaction region (CIR) preceding a negative polarity CH HSS will likely become geoeffective causing another enhancement in the solar wind. Geospace .24 hr Summary... The geomagnetic field reached G1 (Minor) storm levels early due to persistent CME influence. Mostly quiet levels have been observed since. .Forecast... With elevated solar wind speeds beginning the UTC day on 14 Nov, G1-G2 (Minor-Moderate) storm conditions are still likely depending on the orientation and magnitude of the magnetic field component of the solar wind. By mid to late on 14 Nov, conditions are expected to calm to mostly unsettled levels. Quiet to unsettled levels are expected on 15 Nov under near nominal solar wind conditions. Quiet to unsettled levels is expected through most of 16 Nov until the arrival of a CIR/CH HSS later in the UTC day. Active to G1 (Minor) storming is likely thereafter.