Routine Space Environment Product (Daily)
Issued by NWS
Issued by NWS
044 FXXX12 KWNP 191231 DAYDIS :Product: Forecast Discussion :Issued: 2024 Oct 19 1230 UTC # Prepared by the US Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center # Product description and SWPC contact on the Web # http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/wwire.html # # Forecast Discussion # Solar Activity .24 hr Summary... Solar activity reached moderate levels with M-class (R1-R2-Minor-Moderate) flares. The largest flare was an M6.5 from Region 3854 (S12W70, Dai/beta). Region 3852 (S14W90, Hax/alpha) produced an M1.1 flare at 18/1736 UTC and followed shortly with an M4.8 flare at 18/1938 UTC. The regions last M-class event of the period was an impulsive M4.7 flare at 18/2329 UTC. Associated with the event was a Type II radio sweep (est. 480 km/s). As it approached the W limb, some leader spot decay was observed. C-class activity was also observed from Regions 3856 (N10W40, Dai/beta-gamma) and 3860 (S07W05, Hax/alpha). No significant changes were observed with these spotted regions. New Region 3861 (S05W45, Axx/alpha), 3862 (S18E64, Axx/alpha) and 3863 (S02E62, Hsx/alpha) were all numbered this period. No Earth-directed CMEs were observed. .Forecast... Solar activity is expected to be at low levels, with moderate levels (R1-R2, Minor-Moderate) likely on 19-21 Oct. There is a slight chance for X-class flares (R3, Strong) through 21 Oct. Energetic Particles .24 hr Summary... The greater than 2 MeV electron flux was at normal to moderate levels. The greater than 10 MeV proton flux remained near background levels. .Forecast... The greater than 2 MeV electron flux is expected to increase to high levels on 19-21 Oct due to influence from a positive polarity coronal hole high speed stream (CH HSS). The greater than 10 MeV proton flux is expected to remain at background levels with a slight chance for a solar radiation storm event through 21 Oct. Solar Wind .24 hr Summary... Solar wind parameters were slightly enhanced due to CH HSS effects. Total magnetic field reached 12 nT while the Bz component remained variable between +8 to -7 nT. Wind speeds varied between about 325 km/s to about 435 km/s. The phi angle was steady in a positive sector. .Forecast... Influence from a large, positive polarity CH HSS is anticipated early on 19 Oct and to continue through 20 Oct. Enhanced solar wind parameters are expected. Geospace .24 hr Summary... The geomagnetic field was at unsettled to G1 (Minor) storm levels. .Forecast... Active levels are expected on 19-20 Oct due to the influence of a positive polarity CH HSS. There is a chance of G1 (Minor storm) conditions on 19 Oct due to a potential glancing blow from an eruption on the western limb associated with the M2 flare from Region 3854 on 15 Oct at 1833 UTC. Mostly quiet conditions are expected on 21 Oct as CH HSS effects decline.