Routine Space Environment Product (Daily)
Issued by NWS
Issued by NWS
085 FXXX12 KWNP 051231 DAYDIS :Product: Forecast Discussion :Issued: 2026 Sep 05 1230 UTC # Prepared by the US Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center # Product description and SWPC contact on the Web # http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/wwire.html # # Forecast Discussion # Solar Activity .24 hr Summary... Solar activity returned to low levels. Region 4524 (N12E46, Cso/beta) produced the largest flares of the period; a C6.7/Sf flare that peaked at 04/1930 UTC and a C6.4/1n flare that peaked at 05/1045 UTC. Associated with the C6.7 flare were Type II (est. 698 km/s) and Type IV radio sweeps. Subsequently, a fairly narrow CME was first seen in LASCO C2 imagery at ~04/1924 UTC and in CCOR1 at 04/2030 UTC. Following the first event, a second eruption was observed off the SE limb that became visible in CCOR1 at 04/2215 UTC and STEREO at 04/2153 UTC. Modeling analysis of these two events indicated that at least a glancing blow is possible late on 07 Sep into early 08 Sep. No coronagraph imagery was available for the C6.4 flare at the time of this writing. All of the active numbered regions on the visible disk were either stable or exhibited signs of weak decay. .Forecast... Solar activity will likely be at low levels due to occasional C-class flare activity, with a slight chance for M-class flares (R1-R2/Minor-Moderate) through 07 Sep. Energetic Particle .24 hr Summary... The greater than 2 MeV electron flux reached high levels with a peak flux of 1,616 pfu observed at 04/1520 UTC. The greater than 10 MeV proton flux was at background levels. .Forecast... The greater than 2 MeV electron flux is expected to decrease to normal to moderate levels on 05-07 Sep. The greater than 10 MeV proton flux is expected to continue at background levels through 07 Sep. Solar Wind .24 hr Summary... Solar wind parameters were at nominal levels. Total field averaged near 6 nT, while Bz experienced weak southward deviations to - 5 nT. Solar wind speeds decreased from a peak near 400 km/s to end the period under 350 km/s. Phi was predominantly negative with isolated oscillations into a positive orientation. benign .Forecast... Solar wind conditions are expected to remain near background levels through 05-06 Sep. Enhancements due to a solar sector boundary crossing (SSBC) are anticipated by late on 06 Sep to early 07 Sep. Geospace .24 hr Summary... The geomagnetic field was mostly quiet with an isolated unsettled period. .Forecast... Mostly quiet levels are expected to prevail through 06 Sep. Isolated unsettled conditions are likely by late on 06 Sep with unsettled to periodic active levels on 07 Sep due to aforementioned SSBC effects.