Routine Space Environment Product (Daily)
Issued by NWS
Issued by NWS
965 FXXX12 KWNP 041231 DAYDIS :Product: Forecast Discussion :Issued: 2026 Jun 04 1230 UTC # Prepared by the US Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center # Product description and SWPC contact on the Web # http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/wwire.html # # Forecast Discussion # Solar Activity .24 hr Summary... Solar activity dropped to low levels this reporting period, with the largest flare being a C5.1 at 03/2343 UTC from Region 4459 (N14E22, Dai/beta-gamma), though the majority of the C-class activity continued to be produced by Region 4455 (N15W34, Dki/beta-gamma). There are eight numbered regions on the visible disk. Region 4455 remains complex, maintaining its anti-Hale configuration and displaying a newly developed delta structure, however its flux emergence has slowed, perhaps leading to the decrease in activity level. Regions 4458 (S05W21, Dai/beta) and 4459 continued to both show growth though at a more gradual pace than previously. Region 4462 (N17E46, Dao/beta) consolidated and showed increased separation between its poles. The remaining regions were stable or in decline. A CME became visible off the west limb in LASCO C2 coronagraph imagery at approximately 04/0425 UTC. A C2.5 flare at 04/0357 UTC from Region 4457 (S09W71, Bxo/beta) looks to be an eastern footpoint to fieldline movement observed in GOES/SUVI 284 and 304 channels, suggesting the eruption wrapped around the western limb, though this was difficult to confirm with STEREO imagery due to the faintness of the structure in that imagery. Modeling indicates there is no Earth-directed component. .Forecast... Solar activity is expected to be at moderate to high levels through 06 June. M-class (R1-R2/Minor-Moderate) flaring remains likely, with a slight chance for X-class (R3/Strong or greater) events, primarily due to the eruptive capabilities of Regions 4455, 4458, and 4459. Energetic Particle .24 hr Summary... The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit was at low to moderate levels, with a peak flux of 745 pfu observed at 03/1755 UTC. The greater than 10 MeV proton flux at geosynchronous orbit remained at baseline background levels. .Forecast... The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit is anticipated to rise to high levels on 04 June in response to CME effects, remaining high through 06 June. While the greater than 10 MeV proton flux is expected to remain below the S1 threshold, proton enhancements are possible on 04 June due to CME shock front interactions. Solar Wind .24 hr Summary... Solar wind parameters continued to be slightly elevated with conditions reflecting possible embedded transient influences. Total magnetic field (Bt) was rather variable, ranging from nearly 0 nT at 03/1849 UTC to 12 nT at 03/2050 UTC, though it converged on an average of 5 nT by the last 8 hours of the reporting period. The North-South (Bz) component was also variable, with a maximum southward deflection of -9 nT at 04/0121 UTC. Wind speeds were much more consistent, averaging approximately 425 km/s for the first half of the reporting period before decreasing to average 400 km/s for the second half. The phi angle showed a crossing into the positive (away from the Sun) sector at 03/1630 UTC, where it largely stayed for the remainder of the reporting period. .Forecast... Conditions are anticipated to escalate dramatically mid- to late on 04 June with the arrival of the multiple 03 June CMEs. These significant enhancements are expected to persist through 05 June with elevated conditions continuing into 06 June. Geospace .24 hr Summary... The geomagnetic field was quiet to unsettled. .Forecast... Geomagnetic field conditions are anticipated to reach up to G3 (Strong) geomagnetic storming levels mid- to late on 04 June and persisting into 05 June in response to the multiple CME arrivals. There is a chance for isolated periods of G4 (Severe) geomagnetic storming during the peak of the multi-CME passage over 04-05 June. Conditions are expected to drop to active levels, with a remaining chance for isolated G1 (Minor) storming thresholds, on 06 June as CME effects gradually wane.