632
FXXX12 KWNP 101231
DAYDIS

:Product: Forecast Discussion
:Issued: 2026 Jun 10 1230 UTC
# Prepared by the US Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center
# Product description and SWPC contact on the Web
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#             Forecast Discussion
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Solar Activity

.24 hr Summary...
Solar activity remained at low levels with most of the C-level activity
originating from Region 4465 (N09E47, Dsi/beta-gamma), including the
largest flare of the day; a C2.6 observed at 10/0059 UTC. There are
currently 8 numbered sunspot regions on the disk, with the inclusion of
newly numbered Regions 4466 (N06W24, Dao/beta) and 4467 (S08W02,
Bxo/beta. A Type-II radio sweep was observed by two RSTN stations at
09/1557 UTC, with estimated velocity of 917 km/s, likely associated with
C-class flaring from Region 4463 (N16E03, Hsx/alpha). The plage Region
4461 (S21, L=012) also produced some of the C-flares of the period,
including a C2.3/1f (113 mil) at 09/1918 UTC.

Some CME activity was observed in the coronagraph imagery during the
period. One CME first observed at the NE quadrant of LASCO/C2 around
09/1630 UTC which was associated with an eruption near (and south of)
Region 4463. Preliminary analysis suggest glancing effects near-Earth on
14 June.

.Forecast...
Solar activity is likely to be moderate with a slight chance for an
X-class flares through 12 Jun, mainly due to the flare potential of
Regions 4464 (S12E04, Dsi/beta) and 4465.

Energetic Particle

.24 hr Summary...
The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit reached
high levels with a peak flux of 4,259 pfu at 09/1525 UTC. The greater
than 10 MeV proton flux remained at background levels during the period.

.Forecast...
The greater than 2 MeV electron flux levels at geosynchronous orbit are
likely to decay to low to moderate levels on 10-12 Jun. The greater than
10 MeV proton flux is expected to remain at background levels.

Solar Wind

.24 hr Summary...
Solar wind speed remained slightly elevated after the passage of a weak
transient starting near 09/0950 UTC. The total IMF saw an increase of
the IMF from 5nT to 10 nT and the Bz component turned predominately
south until about 09/1500 UTC. Another period of southward Bz component
occurred between 09/1635-2000 UTC, reaching -8 nT at 09/1810 UTC. The
transient also resulted in an increased density and temperature. Solar
wind speed oscillating around 450 km/s during the enhanced period, but
speeds decayed to near 400 km/s by the end of the period. The Phi angle
remained mostly in the positive sector through about 09/2256 UTC when it
shifted northward.

.Forecast...
Background solar wind conditions are expected through midday 11 June
when a -CH HSS is anticipated to become geoeffective through 12 June.

Geospace

.24 hr Summary...
The geomagnetic field has been at quiet to unsettled levels for the past
24 hours.

.Forecast...
The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to unsettled levels on
10 and 11 June, becoming unsettled to active on 12 June.