Routine Space Environment Product (Daily)
Issued by NWS
Issued by NWS
934 FXXX12 KWNP 200031 DAYDIS :Product: Forecast Discussion :Issued: 2025 Aug 20 0030 UTC # Prepared by the US Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center # Product description and SWPC contact on the Web # http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/wwire.html # # Forecast Discussion # Solar Activity .24 hr Summary... Solar activity increased to R1-minor levels as an M1.1 flare was observed at 19/0439 UTC from an area behind the E limb. Region 4187 (S17E05, Dao/beta) developed penumbra on both its leading and trailing spots. Region 4180 (S02,L=306) produced a C1.2 flare at 19/0347 UTC before decaying to plage along side Region 4182 (N09, L=279). Region 4189 (N07E47, Axx/alpha) emerged and was subsequently numbered this period, but was otherwise unremarkable. No Earth-directed CMEs were observed in available coronagraph imagery. .Forecast... Solar activity will likely be at very low to low levels, with a slight chance for for M-class flares through 22 August due to the anticipated return of old active regions. Energetic Particle .24 hr Summary... The greater than 2 MeV electron flux was at normal to moderate levels. The greater than 10 MeV proton flux was at background levels. .Forecast... The greater than 2 MeV electron flux is expected to be at normal to moderate levels through 21 August due to high speed stream influences followed by the potential of periphery influences from a CME that left the Sun on 17 August interacting with the near-Earth environment. A return to high levels is possible on 22 August. The greater than 10 MeV proton flux is expected to continue at background levels through 22 August given the lack of dynamic regions. Solar Wind .24 hr Summary... Solar wind parameters reflected negative polarity CH HSS influences. Total field primarily ranged from 8-19 nT while the Bz component underwent a few brief deflections reaching -7 to -11 nT. Solar wind speeds first gradually increased from around 350 km/s to 445 km/s during the CIR phase and then rapidly increased to approximately 665-695 km/s as the HSS began to prevail. Phi was predominantly in the negative solar sector. .Forecast... A disturbed solar wind environment is likely to continue through 22 August due to recurrent, negative polarity CH HSS influences. An additional enhancement is also possible on 20 August due to glancing effects from a CME that left the Sun on 17 August. Geospace .24 hr Summary... The geomagnetic field reached G1 (Minor) geomagnetic storming levels. .Forecast... The geomagnetic field is expected to reached G1 (Minor) geomagnetic storming levels, with a chance for an isolated G2 (Moderate) period, on 20 August due to continued CH HSS effects coupled with any glancing influences from a CME that left the Sun on 17 August. Unsettled to active levels are expected on 21 August as CH HSS and possible CME effects begin to wane with primarily quiet to unsettled conditions prevailing on 22 August.