Routine Space Environment Product (Daily)
Issued by NWS
Issued by NWS
159 FXXX12 KWNP 151231 DAYDIS :Product: Forecast Discussion :Issued: 2025 Jul 15 1230 UTC # Prepared by the US Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center # Product description and SWPC contact on the Web # http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/wwire.html # # Forecast Discussion # Solar Activity .24 hr Summary... Solar activity was at low levels. The largest flare was a C4.5 at 14/1706 UTC from Region 4141 (S13, L=112) which rotated around the SW limb on 14 Jul. Slight growth was observed in Regions 4139 (N22W23, Dai/beta), 4142 (N01E42, Csi/beta), and 4143 (N23E08, Cro/beta). The remaining spot groups were either stable or slightly decaying. New Region 4144 (S15E69, Hsx/alpha) was numbered. An approximate 65 degree filament eruption centered near N30E57 was observed lifting off in SUVI 304 imagery at 14/0530 UTC. Coronagraph imagery showed an associated CME off the NE limb at 15/0748 UTC. This CME is not expected to have a geoeffective component, however further analysis will be conducted as imagery becomes available. .Forecast... Solar activity is expected to be low with an increased chance for M-class flares (R1-R2, Minor-Moderate) on 15-17 Jul. Energetic Particle .24 hr Summary... The greater than 2 MeV electron flux reached high levels with a peak flux of 1,230 pfu at 14/1730 UTC. The greater than 10 MeV proton flux remained at background levels. .Forecast... Continued influence from the coronal hole (CH) high speed stream (HSS) will maintain higher than normal electron flux at geostationary orbit through 17 Jul. The greater than 2 MeV flux will be moderate to high, especially during the diurnal maxima, during this time. The greater than 10 MeV proton flux is expected to continue at background levels through 17 Jul. Solar Wind .24 hr Summary... Solar wind parameters continued to be enhanced under positive polarity CH HSS influence. Solar wind speed increased from approximately 500 km/s to around 600-750 km/s. Total field ranged from 2-11 nT while the Bz component was between +/-9 nT. Phi angle was predominantly positive. .Forecast... Solar wind parameters are expected to continue to be enhanced under CH HSS influence through 17 Jul. Fluctuations in solar wind speed are likely depending on the connection with the HSS. Geospace .24 hr Summary... The geomagnetic field was at unsettled to G1 (Minor) storming due to persistent CH HSS activity. .Forecast... The geomagnetic field is expected to continue at unsettled to G1 (Minor) levels through the rest of the UTC day on 15 Jul. Unsettled to active levels are expected on 16 Jul followed by quiet to unsettled levels on 17 Jul as HSS conditions persist.