671
FXXX12 KWNP 020031
DAYDIS

:Product: Forecast Discussion
:Issued: 2025 Nov 02 0030 UTC
# Prepared by the US Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center
# Product description and SWPC contact on the Web
# http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/wwire.html
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#             Forecast Discussion
#
Solar Activity

.24 hr Summary...
Solar activity was low. New flux emergence around Region 4267 (N01W52,
Cso/Beta) was observed, along with a C4.7 flare at 01/1655 UTC.  New
Region 4272 (N22E76, Hax/Alpha) was numbered.  The remainder of the
previously numbered regions (4266 and 4269-71) had decayed to plage.

.Forecast...
Region 4272 is the first in what GONG far side imagery suggests is a
series of regions rotating onto the visible disk.  Consequently, solar
activity is expected to begin increasing over the next few days.
Initially low activity is expected with an increasing chance for
M-class flares (R1-R2, Minor-Moderate) on 02-04 Nov and a slight chance
for X-class flares (R3, Strong) with the return of old Regions 4246
(N24, L=290) and 4248 (N07, L=262). Last rotation, Region 4246 produced
90 C-class flares and 27 M-class flares.

Energetic Particle

.24 hr Summary...
The greater than 2 MeV electron flux reached high levels, with a maximum
flux of 10600 pfu The greater than 10 MeV proton flux remained near
background levels.

.Forecast...
The greater than 2 MeV electron flux is expected to remain at moderate
to high levels as HSS influence wanes, unless transient influences nudge
them back to normal levels. There is a slight chance for the greater
than 10 MeV proton flux to reach S1 (Minor) levels with the returning
active regions.

Solar Wind

.24 hr Summary...
Solar wind parameters continued to be enhanced under a positive polarity
CH HSS influence. Solar wind speed decreased from about 650 km/s
to 500 km/s. Bt was fairly steady at 6-7 nT while Bz ranged between
+4/-6 nT. Phi angle was generally positive.

.Forecast...
Solar wind parameters near-Earth are expected to reflect the influence
of a waning CH/HSS, with a return to background conditions towards the
03-04. Weak enhancements from the periphery of a CME that left the Sun
on 30 Oct are possible on 02 Nov, but confidence is low.

Geospace

.24 hr Summary...
The geomagnetic field was at unsettled to active levels due to
slowly diminishing CH HSS effects.

.Forecast...
The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to active levels
through 03 Nov as HSS activity persists combined with a possible
glancing blow from the 30 Oct CME.