Routine Space Environment Product (Daily)
Issued by NWS
Issued by NWS
192 FXXX12 KWNP 230031 DAYDIS :Product: Forecast Discussion :Issued: 2025 Feb 23 0030 UTC # Prepared by the US Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center # Product description and SWPC contact on the Web # http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/wwire.html # # Forecast Discussion # Solar Activity .24 hr Summary... Solar activity was at low levels. Region 4001 (N24W76, Cao/beta) produced the strongest flare of the period, a C8.3 flare at 22/2107 UTC. Three new regions were numbered in the E hemisphere: 4004 (S15E71, Hsx/alpha), 4005 (S05E54, Cro/beta), and 4006 (N17E71, Dao/beta). Regions 4000 (N17W06, Dai/beta-gamma-delta) and 3998 (S14W14, Eki/beta-gamma) remained the most complex and continued to evolve over the past 24 hours. The remaining regions relatively stable or only exhibited minor changes. No Earth-directed CMEs were observed in available coronagraph imagery. .Forecast... There is a chance for R1-R2 (Minor-Moderate) events, and a slight chance for R3 or greater events, over 23-25 Feb. Energetic Particle .24 hr Summary... The greater than 2 MeV electron flux was at normal to moderate levels. The greater than 10 MeV proton flux was at near-background levels. .Forecast... The greater than 2 MeV electron flux is expected to continue at normal to moderate levels through 25 Feb. There is a slight chance for the greater than 10 MeV proton flux to reach S1 (Minor) storm levels over 23-25 Feb. Solar Wind .24 hr Summary... Solar wind parameters were near nominal levels. Total magnetic field strength ranged from 2-7 nT. The Bz component reached as far south as -5 nT. Solar wind speeds remained slow with speeds observed between ~280-350 km/s. Phi angle transitioned from mostly negative to positive after 22/1936 UTC. .Forecast... Nominal solar wind conditions are expected to prevail on 23 Feb. Weakly enhanced conditions are likely on 24-25 Feb due to the onset of negative polarity CH HSS influences and the possible glancing influence of a CME that left the Sun late on 19 Feb. Geospace .24 hr Summary... The geomagnetic field was at quiet to unsettled levels. .Forecast... The geomagnetic field is expected to be mostly quiet over 23 Feb. Quiet to unsettled levels are likely on 24-25 Feb due to negative polarity CH HSS influences and possible glancing influences of a CME that left the Sun late on 19 Feb.