087
FXXX12 KWNP 031231
DAYDIS

:Product: Forecast Discussion
:Issued: 2026 Jan 03 1230 UTC
# Prepared by the US Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center
# Product description and SWPC contact on the Web
# http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/wwire.html
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#             Forecast Discussion
#
Solar Activity

.24 hr Summary...
Solar activity remained at low levels due to low level C-class flares,
mainly from Regions 4324 (N24W21, Dai/beta) and 4325 (S08W31,
Eko/beta-gamma). These regions continued to exhibit decay, each losing
intermediate and trailer spots during the period. Region 4323 (S17W21,
Dai/beta) was the only region to show signs of development, increasing
in size, spot count, and magnetic complexity. No Earth-direct CME was
observed at available coronagraph imagery during the period.

.Forecast...
Solar activity is expected to remain low with a chance for M-class
flares (R1-R2, Minor-Moderate), and a slight chance for isolated X-class
flares (R3-Strong) on 03-05 Jan.

Energetic Particle

.24 hr Summary...
The greater than 2 MeV electron flux reached high levels with a peak of
4,196 pfu at 02/1610 UTC before decreasing to moderate levels. The
greater than 10 MeV proton flux remained at background levels.

.Forecast...
The greater than 2 MeV electron flux is expected to reach high levels
03-05 Jan. There is a slight chance for the greater than 10 MeV proton
flux crossing the threshold of 10 pfu through 05 Jan.


Solar Wind

.24 hr Summary...
Solar wind parameters remained enhanced throughout the day, indicative
of negative polarity CH HSS influence and likely interaction with CMEs
that left the Sun between 28-31 Dec. Solar Wind speeds briefly reached
near 700 km/s early in the period before gradually returning to around
500 km/s by the end of the period. The total magnetic field strength
(Bt) ranged from 4-10 nT the first half of the period, then gradually
leveled off to average near 6 nT the second half. The Bz component
fluctuated between +/- 9 nT. The phi angle remained mostly in the
negative sector, suggesting that the Earth is under the influence of the
negative CH HSS.

.Forecast...
Solar wind parameters are expected to be increasingly disturbed on 03
Jan due to a combination of the ongoing influences of the negative CH
HSS and the arrival of the CMEs that left the Sun on 31 Dec - 01 Jan.
Additional disturbances are likely on 04 Jan with the anticipated impact
of the CME that left the Sun on 02 Jan.

Geospace

.24 hr Summary...
The geomagnetic activity ranged from quiet to minor storming (G1-minor)
levels during the period, reflecting the increased influence of the
negative polarity CH HSS and, potentially, the early disturbances caused
by the periphery of CMEs that left the Sun between 28-31 Dec.

.Forecast...
The geomagnetic field is expected to be at unsettled to active levels,
with G2 (Moderate) storming likely on 03 Jan due to the combination of
the ongoing HSS activity and the peak impact of the 31 Dec CME. Quiet to
G1 (Minor) storming levels are likely on 04 Jan due to the anticipated
arrival of the 02 Jan CME. On 05 Jan, the geomagnetic activity levels
are expected to return to quiet to unsettled levels as CME/CH HSS
effects diminish.