Routine Space Environment Product (Daily)
Issued by NWS
Issued by NWS
866 FXXX12 KWNP 301231 DAYDIS :Product: Forecast Discussion :Issued: 2026 Apr 30 1230 UTC # Prepared by the US Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center # Product description and SWPC contact on the Web # http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/wwire.html # # Forecast Discussion # Solar Activity .24 hr Summary... Solar activity was at low levels with frequent C-class flaring observed primarily from Regions 4420 (N16W56, Fkc/beta-gamma-delta) and 4425 (N05E10, Ekc/beta). The largest flare of the period was a C5.1/Sf at 29/0445 UTC from Region 4420. Region 4420 showed some slight decline in areal extent with flux submergence noted in the trailing spots, though rotation and consolidation in the leading spots persist and the region retains its delta configuration. Region 4425 showed some movement in the trailer spots with overall simplification, including loss of a delta spot. Slight growth was observed in Regions 4423 (S10W39, Bxo/beta) and 4424 (N17W22, Eao/beta), with new flux emergence noted in both. Region 4428 (S24W00, Dai/beta) exhibited growth with separation of the bipoles. Region 4427 (S30E13, Axx/alpha) remained an unremarkable unipolar spot in decay. No Earth-directed CMEs were observed in available coronagraph imagery. .Forecast... Solar activity is likely to reach moderate levels (R1-R2, Minor-Moderate) over 30 Apr - 02 May with a slight chance for X-class flares (R3-Strong or greater) due primarily to the flare potential of regions 4420 and 4425. Energetic Particle .24 hr Summary... The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit was at normal to moderate levels with a peak of 459 pfu observed at 29/1825 UTC. The greater than 10 MeV proton flux at geosynchronous orbit was at background levels. .Forecast... The greater than 2 MeV electron flux is expected to increase to high levels 30 Apr - 02 May in response to anticipated negative polarity CH HSS (-CH HSS) influences. The greater than 10 MeV proton flux is expected to remain at background levels, though a slight chance for S1 (Minor) solar radiation storm levels or greater exists through 02 May due to the flare potential of Regions 4420 and 4425. Solar Wind .24 hr Summary... Solar wind parameters were at near background levels throughout the period. Solar wind speeds steadily declined from around 355 km/s early in the period to near 310 km/s, with slight recovery to around 320 km/s by end of period. Total magnetic field (Bt) strength remained weak, ranging from 2-6 nT. The North-South (Bz) component was variable between +5/-4 nT with a sustained southward deflections observed between 29/0900 and 29/1700 UTC. The phi angle was predominantly in a positive (away from the Sun) orientation throughout the period, with the most notable deviation to the negative sector occurring from approximately 29/1200 to 29/1600 UTC, before returning to a positive orientation and again transitioning back to negative by end of period. .Forecast... Solar wind parameters are expected to remain at near nominal levels into early 30 Apr. The onset of a -CH HSS is anticipated by mid 30 Apr. Enhanced conditions are expected to persist through 01 May, though confidence is moderate given the relatively small source coronal hole. A return to near nominal levels is expected by 02 May. Geospace .24 hr Summary... The geomagnetic field was quiet. .Forecast... Active conditions are anticipated by mid to late 30 Apr with a chance for G1 (Minor) due to the anticipated onset of the -CH HSS. Unsettled to active conditions are expected to persist on 01 May with a return to mostly quiet levels on 02 May as HSS influences wane.