Routine Space Environment Product (Daily)
Issued by NWS
Issued by NWS
813 FXXX12 KWNP 121231 DAYDIS :Product: Forecast Discussion :Issued: 2025 Mar 12 1230 UTC # Prepared by the US Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center # Product description and SWPC contact on the Web # http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/wwire.html # # Forecast Discussion # Solar Activity .24 hr Summary... Solar activity reached moderate levels due to an impulsive M1.1 flare from Region 4024 (N05W62, Cro/beta). Activity increased with most of the flaring from Region 4024 and an unnumbered Region just beyond the SE limb near S19. Region 4024 continued to decay over the period, whereas Region 4019 (N06E11, Dac/beta-delta) and 4021 (S06E49, Cao/beta-delta) were in a growth phase. New Regions 4025 (N10E51, Bxi/beta), 4026 (S20E57, Bxo/beta), and 4027 (N11W14, Bxo/beta) developed on the disk and were numbered. No Earth-directed CMEs were observed. .Forecast... Solar activity is expected to be low with an increased chance for further M-class flaring (R1-R2, Minor-Moderate) on 12-14 Mar. Energetic Particle .24 hr Summary... The greater than 2 MeV electron flux was at normal to high levels with a peak flux of 4,110 pfu observed at 11/1535 UTC. There was a brief rise in proton flux levels to near 0.5 pfu late on 11 Mar but has since receded to background levels. .Forecast... The greater than 2 MeV electron flux is expected to continue at moderate to high levels on 12-14 Mar. The greater than 10 MeV proton flux is expected to remain at background levels. Solar Wind .24 hr Summary... Solar wind parameters gradually enhanced over the period with total field increasing from 6 nT to 11-12 nT. The Bz component became mostly southward after 11/2019 UTC reaching a maximum of -11 nT. Solar wind speed ranged from 348 km/s to 529 km/s. Phi angle was negative. .Forecast... Solar wind parameters are expected to continue to be enhanced through 14 Mar with a transition into a southerly negative polarity CH HSS. Geospace .24 hr Summary... The geomagnetic field ranged from quiet to active levels due to prolonged periods of southward Bz. .Forecast... Quiet to active conditions, with G1 (Minor) storm periods possible, are expected through 14 Mar due to persistent HSS activity.