Routine Space Environment Product (Daily)
Issued by NWS
Issued by NWS
911 FXXX12 KWNP 261231 DAYDIS :Product: Forecast Discussion :Issued: 2026 Jan 26 1230 UTC # Prepared by the US Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center # Product description and SWPC contact on the Web # http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/wwire.html # # Forecast Discussion # Solar Activity .24 hr Summary... Solar activity was at low levels. Region 4342 (N16W78, Dso/beta) produced a C7.9 flare that peaked at 25/2143 UTC, which was the largest of the period. CMEs associated with this event were first observed in LASCO C2 coronagraph imagery beginning at approximately 25/2012 UTC. However, these CMEs are not expected to have an Earth-directed component given their source location on the western limb. New simple spots were observed near N17E12, but remain unnumbered at this time given a lack of substantial growth or activity in their few hours of existence. The remaining numbered active regions were relatively stable and quiet, or were in decay. .Forecast... Solar activity is expected to be low with a chance for M-class flares (R1/R2, Minor/Moderate) through 28 Jan. Energetic Particle .24 hr Summary... The greater than 2 MeV electron flux reached high levels with a peak flux of 6,154 pfu observed at 25/1640 UTC. The greater than 10 MeV proton flux was below the S1 (Minor) threshold. .Forecast... The greater than 2 MeV electron flux is expected to remain at high levels on 26 Jan before decreasing to normal to moderate levels on 27 Jan. The greater than 10 MeV proton flux is expected to remain at background levels through 28 Jan. Solar Wind .24 hr Summary... Solar wind parameters reflected weakening positive polarity CH HSS influence and a possible weak transient disturbance late in the period. Total field primarily ranged 4-6 nT, but underwent an increase to 7-8 nT beginning around 26/0542 UTC. The Bz component of the IMF was mostly near neutral or northward with only a few weak southward deflections. Solar wind speeds exhibited an overall decreasing trend ending the period near 500 km/s. Phi was predominantly positive with a few brief excursions into the negative solar sector. .Forecast... Positive polarity CH HSS influencesare expected to gradually diminish over 26 Jan into the first half of 27 Jan. The latter half of 27 Jan should bring negative polarity CH HSS influences and enhancements into the solar wind environment, which will then continue through 28 Jan. Geospace .24 hr Summary... Geomagnetic field activity was at quiet to unsettled levels. .Forecast... Quiet to unsettled geomagnetic conditions are expected to give way to mostly quiet levels by early on 27 Jan. Unsettled conditions are then possible again by late on 27 Jan due to an anticipated solar sector boundary crossing. Isolated G1 (Minor) geomagnetic storming periods are likely on 28 Jan with the onset of negative polarity CH HSS effects.