Routine Space Environment Product (Daily)
Issued by NWS
Issued by NWS
283 FXXX12 KWNP 171231 DAYDIS :Product: Forecast Discussion :Issued: 2025 Oct 17 1230 UTC # Prepared by the US Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center # Product description and SWPC contact on the Web # http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/wwire.html # # Forecast Discussion # Solar Activity .24 hr Summary... Solar activity remained at moderate levels with M-class flare activity from Region 4246 (N24W76, Ekc/beta-gamma-delta). AR 4246 continued to produce many C-class flares and several M1 flares. Region 4248 (N07W48, Eki/beta-gamma) was relatively quiet in comparison and changed little. Regions 4255 (S08E31, Bxo/beta) and 4256 (S16E59, Dao/beta) were numbered this period with the latter showing signs of evolution as it rapidly emerged and began forming small asymmetric penumbra. An active filament was noted in the vicinity of Region 4250 (N05W34, Axx/alpha) near 17/0520 UTC. No ejecta associated with this event has been noted in available coronagraph imagery. No other potentially Earth-directed CMEs have been observed. .Forecast... Minor to moderate (R1-R2) radio blackouts are likely through 18 Oct, with a slight chance for an isolated R3 (Strong) event, due to the flare potential of Regions 4246 and 4248. Probabilities decrease slightly on 19 Oct as AR 4246 rotates beyond the western limb. Energetic Particle .24 hr Summary... The greater than 2 MeV electron flux reached high levels with a maximum flux of 3,769 pfu observed at 16/2015 UTC. The greater than 10 MeV proton flux remained at background levels during this period. .Forecast... The greater than 2 MeV electron flux is expected decrease to normal to moderate levels on 17 Oct due to glancing CME effects before returning to high levels on 18-19 Oct. There is a slight chance for a greater than 10 MeV proton event above the S1 (Minor) levels through 18 Oct. Solar Wind .24 hr Summary... Solar Wind parameters were at nominal levels until 17/0930 UTC, when an enhancement occurred in the IMF. This is possibly due to glancing effects of a CME from 13-15 Oct. Total field increased from 6-12 nT and the Bz component became further southward from -3 to -9 nT. Solar wind speeds remained near 380 km/s. Phi went from variable to mostly negative by the latter half of the period. .Forecast... Possible enhancements are anticipated through 18 Oct due to glancing CME influences from events that left the Sun primarily over the course of 13-15 Oct. A trend towards a more nominal environment is then anticipated on 19 Oct. Geospace .24 hr Summary... Geomagnetic field activity was at quiet to active levels. .Forecast... G1 (Minor) geomagnetic storming is likely on 17 Oct due to glancing CME effects from events that left the Sun on 12/13 Oct. The 15 Oct CMEs that were mentioned in previous discussions were modeled with results suggesting that perhaps a glancing blow at Earth is possible by late on 18 Oct. However, the bulk of the material should be well ahead of Earths orbit. Therefore, unsettled to active geomagnetic activity, with a chance for G1 (Minor) storming, is expected on 18 Oct with any glancing CME effects causing these activity levels to carry over into the early portions of 19 Oct.