Routine Space Environment Product (Daily)
Issued by NWS
Issued by NWS
284 FXXX12 KWNP 101231 DAYDIS :Product: Forecast Discussion :Issued: 2026 Sep 10 1230 UTC # Prepared by the US Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center # Product description and SWPC contact on the Web # http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/wwire.html # # Forecast Discussion # Solar Activity .24 hr Summary... Solar activity was low. Eight designated sunspot groups were present on the visible solar disk, none of particular note. Region 4524 (N12W20, Hsx/alpha)produced the only C-class flare of the period, a C1 at 10/0051 UTC. Only Region 4530 (N19W14, Dso/beta) exhibited any magnetic complexity. The remaining regions were either stable or in decay. Other activity included an approximate 5 degree filament eruption near N14W03 associated with the C3.4 flare from Region 4524. A possibly associated slow moving CME was observed in ST A COR 2 imagery beginning at 09/1638 UTC. Analysis/WSA Enlil modeling determined a likely arrival of late 14 Sep to early 15 Sep. An additional event was an approximately 10 degree filament eruption that occurred near 0330 UTC, centered close to S10W35. This eruption was first visible in CCOR-2 at 10/0730 UTC. This CME is slow moving and modeling results are pending at the time of this summary. .Forecast... Solar activity is anticipated to remain low, with a slight chance of low-level M-class flares (R1-Minor) 10-12 Sep. Region 4521 rotates beyond the limb by 12 Sep decreasing the chance for R1 events. There is no evidence in NSO GONG helioseismology of any looming active regions of note just beyond the east limb. Energetic Particle .24 hr Summary... The greater than 2 MeV electron flux reached high levels with a maximum flux of 3,370 pfu at 09/1340 UTC. The greater than 10 MeV proton flux was at background values. .Forecast... The greater than 2 MeV electron flux is expected to reach high levels 10-12 Sep and the greater than 10 MeV proton flux is expected to remain at background levels. Solar Wind .24 hr Summary... Solar wind conditions were indicative of a slight enhancement in the solar wind that may be related to anticipated CME influences. Total IMF strength peaked at 8 nT, then settled at 5-6 nT for the latter part of the period. The Bz component experienced minor variations, but no significant sustained periods of pronounced southward direction. Solar wind speed changes were minimal, with speeds averaging near 450 km/s. The phi angle was variable throughout the period. .Forecast... Solar wind conditions are anticipated to experience some minor disturbances due mainly to a small, positive positive polarity CH HSS anticipated to be geoeffective by 11 Sep. Geospace .24 hr Summary... The geomagnetic field was at quiet to unsettled levels. .Forecast... The geomagnetic field is expected to be quiet to unsettled through 12 Sep with active periods possible on 11 Sep due to CH HSS onset.