Routine Space Environment Product (Daily)
Issued by NWS
Issued by NWS
506 FXXX12 KWNP 251231 DAYDIS :Product: Forecast Discussion :Issued: 2026 Aug 25 1230 UTC # Prepared by the US Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center # Product description and SWPC contact on the Web # http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/wwire.html # # Forecast Discussion # Solar Activity .24 hr Summary... Solar activity reached moderate levels due to M-class flare activity from Region 4513 (N04E02, Ekc/beta-gamma-delta). AR 4513 was responsible for five M-class flares as it continued to mature and maintained a moderately strong mixed polarity configuration in its intermediate area. The largest of event of the period was an M6.9 flare that peaked at 25/1002 UTC. This event was accompanied by a 10.7cm radio burst of 160 SFU and a Type II radio sweep with an estimated speed of 603 km/s. All indicators, to include an EIT wave beginning just before 25/0955 UTC in GOES SUVI 195 imagery, point to a subsequent CME and analysis of this event will continue once proper coronagraph imagery becomes available. .Forecast... Solar activity will likely continue to reach moderate levels driven by occasional M-class flare activity (R1-R2/Minor-Moderate) primarily driven by Region 4513 through 27 Aug. Energetic Particle .24 hr Summary... The greater than 2 MeV electron flux reached high levels with a peak flux of 1,240 pfu observed at 25/1125 UTC. The greater than 10 MeV proton flux remained elevated, but below S1 (Minor) levels, ranging from 2-3 pfu throughout the period. .Forecast... The greater than 2 MeV electron flux is expected to reach high levels on 24-27 Aug. There is a slight chance for the greater than 10 MeV proton flux to reach S1 (Minor) storm levels through 27 Aug, which is primarily being driven by activity from Region 4513. Solar Wind .24 hr Summary... Solar wind parameters were at nominal levels with solar wind speeds at or below roughly 365 km/s. Total field ranged from 4-7 nT while the Bz component was between +/-5 nT. Phi angle was predominantly negative. .Forecast... Nominal solar wind conditions are expected through approximately midday on 27 Aug. An enhancement is expected by mid to late on 27 Aug due to the onset of positive polarity CH HSS conditions. Solar wind speeds are likely to be more enhanced than the previous rotation due to a more developed northerly extension of the CH. Solar wind speeds in the 500-600 km/s range are likely. Geospace .24 hr Summary... The geomagnetic field was at quiet levels. .Forecast... The geomagnetic field is expected to be mostly quiet through midday on 27 Aug under ambient solar wind conditions. By mid to late on 27 Aug, Unsettled to active levels are expected, with a chance for G1 (Minor) storm levels, due to the onset of CH HSS conditions.