Routine Space Environment Product (Daily)
Issued by NWS
Issued by NWS
086 FXXX12 KWNP 021231 DAYDIS :Product: Forecast Discussion :Issued: 2025 Oct 02 1230 UTC # Prepared by the US Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center # Product description and SWPC contact on the Web # http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/wwire.html # # Forecast Discussion # Solar Activity .24 hr Summary... Solar activity maintained moderate levels during the period due to an M1.2 flare occurred at Region 4226 (S09W90, Hsx/alpha) on Oct 02/0209 UTC. This flare was accompanied by a Type-II radio emission and a coronal mass ejection (CME), that was initially observed at GOES-19 SUVI 284 Angstroms imagery and later appeared at SOHO/LASCO C2 coronagraph imagery. Modeling of this event returned a miss well ahead of Earths orbit. Among the other eight active regions observed on the solar disk, only one increased in size and magnetic complexity during the past 24h: Region 4232 (N04W06, Dhi/beta-gamma-delta). Both regions 4232 and 4236 (N10W14, Dki/beta-gamma) were located in the center of the solar disk and presented low levels of solar activity, with few C-class flares during the last period. .Forecast... Solar flare activity is likely to remain at low to moderate levels (R1-R2), with a slight chance (10%) for strong events (R3) through 04 Oct considering the observed evolution of the active regions. Energetic Particle .24 hr Summary... The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geostationary orbit remained at high levels during the period, peaking at 02 Oct/0430 UTC with 3,600 pfu, due to magnetospheric responses to high speed streams (HSS) associated with a positive polarity coronal hole that crossed the solar central meridian. The greater than 10 MeV proton fluxes measured by GOES-R satellites, on the other hand, remained at background levels during the past 24h. .Forecast... A chance for high levels of greater than 2 MeV electron fluxes is considered though 04 Oct due to the persistent influence of the high speed stream (HSS). The greater than 10 MeV proton flux is expected to remain at background levels over the next few days. Solar Wind .24 hr Summary... The solar wind environment near Earth continued to be dominated by the CIR/HSS associated to the positive CH, with Phi angle values representative of the positive sector for the whole period. Solar wind speeds varied between 700 and 800 km/s, and the total Interplanetary Magnetic Field (Bt) oscillated between 5 and 10 nT. The north/south (Bz) component underwent several sustained, southward deflections reaching -6 to -8 nT. .Forecast... HSS influences are expected to persist for through 04 Oct. Since the ongoing HSS is associated with a positive polarity CH, the coupling at this time of the year (near the September equinox) is expected to be maximized due to the Russel-McPherron effect. Geospace .24 hr Summary... Strong geomagnetic activity (G3) was observed during the 0300-0600 synoptic period due to magnetospheric responses to the ongoing CIR/HSS (and inhomogeneous geographic distribution of the ground-based magnetometers used by SWPC operations). Otherwise, geomagnetic activity ranged from active to moderate (G2) storm levels. .Forecast... G2 (Moderate) geomagnetic activity levels are expected until 02 Oct/1500 UTC. G1 (Minor) geomagnetic storming is likely to persist on 03 Oct with primarily unsettled to active conditions prevailing on 04 Oct.