Routine Space Environment Product (Daily)
Issued by NWS
Issued by NWS
489 FXXX12 KWNP 211231 DAYDIS :Product: Forecast Discussion :Issued: 2025 Feb 21 1230 UTC # Prepared by the US Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center # Product description and SWPC contact on the Web # http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/wwire.html # # Forecast Discussion # Solar Activity .24 hr Summary... Solar flare activity has been at low levels with six C-Class flares throughout the period. The largest flare was a C4.9 at 20/1501 from the primary flare producer Region 3996 (S16W03, Fko/beta-gamma). The region has grown in length and continues to see minor flux emergence within the intermediate area. Slight growth was observed in the intermediate area of Region 3998 (S14E12, Dai/beta). Most other regions have been stable or in decay. A new region is beginning to emerge in the NE quadrant and will be numbered as spot reports become available. The CME associated with the C8.1 at 19/2345 UTC and Type II radio sweep (553 km/s) left the disk around 20/0000 UTC. The CME was modelled and was determined to be mostly a miss with a with a very slight chance for a weak glancing blow on 24 Feb. Another sizeable CME was observed in LASCO C2 imagery around 20/1124 UTC off the E/SE part of the disk; the event is likely associated with a filament eruption near S10E58 and is not expected to have a geoeffective component. At around the same time a small, thin CME lifted off the S/SW that was associated with a long duration C3.8 at 20/1058 from Region 3996. Awaiting model analysis results as of 20/2200 UTC but based on its speed of around 300 km/s and how far south it was deflected, arrival is unlikely to cause impacts. .Forecast... Solar activity is expected to be low with a chance for isolated M-class (R1-R2, Minor-Moderate) activity and a slight chance for X-class (R3, Strong) activity through 23 Feb. Energetic Particle .24 hr Summary... The 2 MeV electron flux at geostationary orbit has been at moderate (100 pfu) levels for much of the period. The greater than 10 MeV proton flux was at background levels. .Forecast... Weak CH HSS in the northern hemisphere could increase the 2 MeV electron flux into 21 Feb but its expected to remain below threshold. All active regions in the western hemisphere are simple in their magnetic complexity, reducing the chances for impactful proton events. Therefore, the greater than 10 MeV proton flux is expected to remain below S1 (Minor) levels through 23 Feb. Solar Wind .24 hr Summary... Solar wind parameters are returning to nominal levels. The total field was around 5 nT with a variable Bz component early in the period transitioning to mainly northward around 5 nT after 20/1200 UTC. Solar wind speeds have been on the decline from around 500 km/s towards 325 km/s. The phi angle was mostly negative until 20/1200 UTC and became variable thereafter. .Forecast... Solar wind parameters are expected to remain at nominal levels through 23 Feb. A small, northern hemispheric positive polarity coronal hole is currently moving around the western limb; the HSS could enhance solar wind slightly for a brief period into 21 Feb but confidence is low. Geospace .24 hr Summary... The geomagnetic field was quiet to unsettled. .Forecast... The geomagnetic field is expected to be at mostly quiet to unsettled levels through 23 Feb. There is a slight chance for a weak enhancement of the field late on 21 Feb as a weak, positive polarity coronal hole HSS passes but impacts will be minimal if at all.