Routine Space Environment Product (Daily)
Issued by NWS
Issued by NWS
143 FXXX12 KWNP 140031 DAYDIS :Product: Forecast Discussion :Issued: 2025 May 14 0030 UTC # Prepared by the US Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center # Product description and SWPC contact on the Web # http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/wwire.html # # Forecast Discussion # Solar Activity .24 hr Summary... Solar activity reached high levels due to an X1.2 flare at 13/1538 UTC from Region 4086 (N07W84, Dao/beta). There was an associated CME off the west and modelling is underway. Otherwise, solar activity has been low with the only other flares being a C3.7 at 13/1357 UTC and a C2.3 at 13/2241 UTC from Region 4085 (N03W16, Bxo/beta). Region 4087 (N15E65, Dso/beta) continues to come into better view but has been fairly quiet. The filament eruption that occurred in the northern hemisphere around 13/0800 UTC was modelled with a potential for a glancing blow on the 17th. Impacts are expected to be minimal as most of the ejecta will pass above Earth. .Forecast... Solar activity is expected to remain low through 16 May as the four regions on the disk are simple in their magnetic structure. Region 4087 may be more complex than its current classification but foreshortening due to the limb effect is making it difficult to discern. Energetic Particle .24 hr Summary... The greater than 2 MeV electron flux has been at moderate levels. The greater than 10 MeV proton flux increased following the X1.2 flare but has not yet surpassed the 10 MeV Warning threshold. An S1 (Minor) Radiation Storm Warning was issued at 13/1930 UTC. .Forecast... The greater than 2 MeV electron flux is expected to remain at moderate levels. The greater than 10 MeV proton flux is expected to reach and/or hover around the 10 MeV warning threshold. The current S1 Warning is valid through 14/1200 UTC. Solar Wind .24 hr Summary... Solar wind parameters reflected slight enhancements from the negative coronal hole high speed stream originating from the southwest part of the disks. The total field was between 7 to 13 nT with the Bz component varying between -10 to 12 nT. Solar wind speeds were around 400 km/s with a mostly negative phi angle. .Forecast... Solar wind parameters are expected to remain enhanced due to the CH HSS through 14 May with another CH becoming geoeffective through 16 May. Geospace .24 hr Summary... The geomagnetic field was at quiet to unsettled to levels. .Forecast... Weakening CH HSS responses are anticipated on 14 May, with mainly quiet to unsettled conditions likely. 15 May is expected to see quiet to active levels in increased reaction to elevated solar wind conditions from the next CH HSS.