Routine Space Environment Product (Daily)
Issued by NWS
Issued by NWS
476 FXXX12 KWNP 160031 DAYDIS :Product: Forecast Discussion :Issued: 2025 Dec 16 0030 UTC # Prepared by the US Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center # Product description and SWPC contact on the Web # http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/wwire.html # # Forecast Discussion # Solar Activity .24 hr Summary... Solar activity was at low levels. Only low level C-class flares were observed. Slight growth and consolidation occurred in Region 4307 (S15W48, Dao/beta). Region 4308 (N07E17, Cso/beta) was in decay. New spots developed near N01W22 and were numbered as 4310 (N01W25, Bxo/beta). No Earth-directed CMEs were detected in available imagery .Forecast... Solar activity is expected to be low with a slight chance for M-class flares (R1-R2, Minor-Moderate) on 16-18 Dec. Energetic Particle .24 hr Summary... The greater than 2 MeV electron flux reached moderate levels and the greater than 10 MeV proton flux remained steady at background levels during the period. .Forecast... The greater than 2 MeV electron flux is expected to remain at normal to moderate levels through 18 Dec. The greater than 10 MeV proton flux is expected to persist at background levels over 16-18 Dec. Solar Wind .24 hr Summary... Solar wind parameters were mildly enhanced. Solar wind speed ranged from 411-508 km/s. Towards the end of the reporting period, the total magnetic field (Bt) increased from 4 nT to 13 nT, while the Bz (north-south) component was between +8/-5 nT. Phi angle was predominantly negative (towards the Sun). .Forecast... Solar wind parameters are likely going to be mildly enhanced through early on 16 Dec. An enhancement in the solar wind is expected on 17-18 Dec with the onset of a trans-equatorial, negative polarity CH HSS. Solar wind speeds near 600 km/s is likely based on WSA/ENLIL guidance. Geospace .24 hr Summary... The geomagnetic field was quiet to unsettled. .Forecast... Quiet to unsettled levels are expected on 16 Dec. On 17-18 Dec, unsettled to active levels are expected, with G1 (Minor) levels likely on 18 Dec, due to the onset of the negative polarity CH HSS.