Routine Space Environment Product (Daily)
Issued by NWS
Issued by NWS
992 FXXX12 KWNP 140031 DAYDIS :Product: Forecast Discussion :Issued: 2025 Sep 14 0030 UTC # Prepared by the US Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center # Product description and SWPC contact on the Web # http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/wwire.html # # Forecast Discussion # Solar Activity .24 hr Summary... Solar activity was at low levels with C-class flares observed. Region 4213 (S14W66, Dao/beta) developed a few intermediate spots while the trailer spots decayed. Region 4216 (N10E52, Dai/beta) added a rudimentary trailer spot but remained largely unchanged. Region 4211 (S14W77, Hsx/alpha) was stable throughout the period. No Earth-directed CMEs were detected in coronagraph imagery. .Forecast... Solar activity is expected to be low, with a slight chance for an isolated M-flare (R1-R2/Minor-Moderate), through 16 Sep. Energetic Particle .24 hr Summary... The greater than 2 MeV electron flux reached high levels with a peak flux of 1,130 pfu observed at 13/1925 UTC. The greater than 10 MeV proton flux was steady at background levels. .Forecast... The greater than 2 MeV electron flux is expected to reach high levels on 14 Sep, before decreasing to normal to moderate levels on 15-16 Sep. The greater than 10 MeV proton flux is expected to persist at background levels through 16 Sep. Solar Wind .24 hr Summary... Solar wind parameters reflected nominal solar wind conditions. Total field ranged between 6-8 nT, and the Bz component varied between +/-5 nT. Solar wind speeds gradually decreased from 375 km/s to 350 km/s. The phi angle remained positive. .Forecast... The solar wind environment is expected to be enhanced over 14-16 Sep due to CIR effects followed by negative polarity CH HSS influences. There is a chance to see some weak influence from the 11 Sep CME late 14 Sep through early 15 Sep as it passes in close proximity to Earth. Geospace .24 hr Summary... The geomagnetic field was quiet and unsettled. .Forecast... The geomagnetic field is likely to reach G1 (Minor) storm levels on 14 Sep due to CIR effects followed by negative polarity CH HSS influences. On 15-16 Sep, periods of active conditions are likely, with a chance for G1 (Minor) storm periods, due to continued negative polarity CH HSS influences. There is a chance to see some weak influence from the 11 Sep CME late 14 Sep through early 15 Sep as it passes in close proximity to Earth.