Routine Space Environment Product (Daily)
Issued by NWS
Issued by NWS
160 FXXX12 KWNP 240031 DAYDIS :Product: Forecast Discussion :Issued: 2025 Nov 24 0030 UTC # Prepared by the US Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center # Product description and SWPC contact on the Web # http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/wwire.html # # Forecast Discussion # Solar Activity .24 hr Summary... Solar activity was at low levels. Region 4291 (S13E54, Eai/beta), remained the most complex region on the disk, developed additional intermediate spots, and continued to produce low-level C-class activity. Newly formed Region 4292 (S17W07, Cao/beta) was numbered during the period, but remained mostly inactive. The remaining numbered active regions were either mostly stable or in gradual decay. No Earth-directed CMEs were noted in available satellite imagery. .Forecast... Solar activity is expected to remain at low levels on 24-26 Nov, with a slight chance for moderate levels (R1-R2/Minor-Moderate) mainly due to the flare potential of Region 4291. Energetic Particle .24 hr Summary... The greater than 2 MeV electron flux was at moderate levels. The greater than 10 MeV proton flux was at background levels. .Forecast... The greater than 2 MeV electron flux is expected to remain at moderate levels, with isolated high periods possible through 26 Nov. The greater than 10 MeV proton flux in expected to remain at background levels through 26 Nov. Solar Wind .24 hr Summary... Solar wind parameters were near background levels until just after 23/0600 UTC when a solar sector boundary crossing occurred. Total magnetic field strength saw a peak of 13 nT at 23/1833 UTC, the Bz component reached as far south as -8 nT at 23/1157 UTC, and solar wind speeds increased from 350 km/s to a peak of ~499 km/s at 23/1644 UTC. Phi angle suggested the passage of a solar sector boundary crossing around 23/0610 UTC, with the phi angle transitioning from a negative solar sector to positive. .Forecast... Mostly nominal to weakly enhanced conditions are likely for 24 Nov through most of 25 Nov as Earth interacts with the heliospheric current sheet. By late on 25 Nov into early 26 Nov, a CIR ahead of a positive polarity CH HSS is likely to bring enhancements to the solar wind environment, lasting through the period. Geospace .24 hr Summary... The geomagnetic activity was quiet to unsettled, with an isolated active period from 23/1500-1800 UTC. .Forecast... The geomagnetic field is expected to be mostly quiet to unsettled on 24 Nov into early 25 Nov as nominal solar wind conditions are expected to prevail. By late on 25 Nov into early 26 Nov, the onset of the anticipated CIR/CH HSS is expected increase activity to unsettled to active levels, with G1 (Minor) storm conditions likely.