130
FXXX12 KWNP 030031
DAYDIS

:Product: Forecast Discussion
:Issued: 2026 Mar 03 0030 UTC
# Prepared by the US Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center
# Product description and SWPC contact on the Web
# http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/wwire.html
#
#             Forecast Discussion
#
Solar Activity

.24 hr Summary...
Solar activity continued at low levels, characterized by less frequent
C-class flaring compared to the previous period. Regions 4381 (N08E42,
Eao/beta) and 4384 (N10E67, Ehi/beta) remained the primary drivers of
activity. Region 4384 rotated further onto the disk, and while
foreshortening still hinders definitive magnetic analysis, additional
trailing spots were observed rotating into view. This region produced
the largest event of the period, a C4.5 flare at 02/0438 UTC.

Region 4378 (N15E13, Cho/beta) transitioned from an H- back to a C-group
as trailing spots exhibited transitory behavior, though the lead spot
remained stable in size and the region was inactive. Region 4380
(S21E25, Bxo/beta) decayed into simple, non-penumbral spots. Region 4383
(N15W23, Bxo/beta) remained inactive and stable in overall extent,
despite minor spot flux variations (disappearing and reappearing) within
its positive polarity pole.

For eruptive activity, two filament eruptions occurred: a 20-degree
filament near N53E28 (02/0230 UTC) and an 11-degree filament near N10W68
(02/1000 UTC). The northern eruption was first observed in LASCO C2
imagery at 02/0936 UTC, while the western eruption appeared in C2
imagery at 02/1036 UTC. Modeling indicates no Earth-directed components
from either event, and no other CMEs of interest were observed in
available coronagraph imagery.

.Forecast...
Solar activity is expected to be at low levels, with a chance for
isolated M-class activity (R1-R2/Minor-Moderate) through 05 Mar.


Energetic Particle

.24 hr Summary...
The greater than 2 MeV electron flux reached high levels with a peak of
14,495 pfu observed at 02/1810 UTC. The greater than 10 MeV proton flux
remained at background levels.

.Forecast...
The greater than 2 MeV electron flux is expected to reach high levels on
03-05 Mar. The greater than 10 MeV proton flux is expected to continue
at background levels through 05 Mar.


Solar Wind

.24 hr Summary...
Solar wind parameters were indicative of an ambient solar wind regime.
Solar wind speeds continued to trend downward, reaching around 300 km/s
by periods end. Total magnetic field (Bt) remained steady, hovering
between 4 and 6 nT, while the North-South (Bz) component fluctuated
between +5/-5 nT. The Phi angle stabilized into a predominantly positive
(away from the Sun) orientation for most of the period, marking a clear
transition following the previous periods sector instability.

At 02/2319 UTC, a small transient may have arrived: there is a small
discontinuity in the wind speed (sudden jump to ~350 km/s), Bt (sudden
small increase to 8 nT) and phi angle, with a simultaneous scramble and
following slight rotation of the magnetic field components.

.Forecast...
Enhancements in solar wind conditions are possible 03-04 Mar due to the
onset of a positive polarity coronal hole high-speed stream (+CH HSS). A
return toward a more nominal, ambient regime is likely by 05 Mar.


Geospace

.24 hr Summary...
The geomagnetic field was at quiet levels.

.Forecast...
The geomagnetic field is expected to reach unsettled levels on 03-04 Mar
as +CH HSS influences begin with a chance for isolated active periods.
Conditions are likely to return to predominantly quiet to unsettled
levels by 05 Mar.