Routine Space Environment Product (Daily)
Issued by NWS
Issued by NWS
354 FXXX12 KWNP 121231 DAYDIS :Product: Forecast Discussion :Issued: 2025 Feb 12 1230 UTC # Prepared by the US Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center # Product description and SWPC contact on the Web # http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/wwire.html # # Forecast Discussion # Solar Activity .24 hr Summary... Solar activity declined to low levels with C-class activity from departed Region 3981 (N07, L=343) and Region 3990 (S09E47, Dko/beta-gamma) and new Region 3991 (S12E63, Cso/beta). Region 3990 continued to expand in overall size and its magnetic complexity is becoming more clear as it rotates further into view. The remaining numbered regions were stable and quiet. A C7.2 flare was observed at 11/1825 UTC associated with what appeared to be a prominence eruption east of Region 3991. A CME was visible in LASCO C2 imagery beginning at 11/1812 UTC. Model analysis determined no Earth-directed component was evident. New Region 3992 (S06W04, Dai/beta) was numbered. No other CMEs were observed in available coronagraph imagery. .Forecast... Solar activity is expected to be low with a chance for (R1-R2, Minor-Moderate) activity on 12-14 Feb. Energetic Particles .24 hr Summary... The greater than 2 MeV electron flux reached high levels with a peak flux of 2,077 pfu observed at 11/1605 UTC. The greater than 10 MeV proton flux was at background levels. .Forecast... The greater than 2 MeV electron flux is likely to remain at moderate to high levels through 14 Feb. The greater than 10 MeV proton flux is expected to remain below S1 (Minor) levels through 14 Feb. Solar Wind .24 hr Summary... The solar wind environment was enhanced by negative polarity CH HSS influences. Total field Bt remained mostly steady near 6 nT, while the Bz component varied between +/-6 nT. Wind speeds remained mostly steady at about 550 km/s. The Phi angle was predominantly negative. .Forecast... A slightly enhanced and disturbed solar wind environment is expected to continue on 12 Feb as influence from the current CH HSS begins to wane. However, there is a chance for an additional enhancement by late 12 Feb due to any glancing influences from a slow, faint CME that left the Sun on 08 Feb. Confidence is low in this outcome. Enhancement from a subsequent negative polarity CH HSS is anticipated on 13-14 Feb. Geospace .24 hr Summary... The geomagnetic field was at quiet to active levels due to negative polarity CH HSS influence. .Forecast... Quiet to unsettled conditions, with isolated active periods, are expected 12 Feb as CH HSS effects continue along with a chance of glancing influences from the aforementioned 08 Feb CME. G1 (Minor) storm periods are likely on 13 Feb due to onset of a subsequent negative polarity CH HSS. Unsettled to active conditions on 14 Feb as CH influence continues.