Routine Space Environment Product (Daily)
Issued by NWS
Issued by NWS
386 FXXX12 KWNP 050031 DAYDIS :Product: Forecast Discussion :Issued: 2025 Jun 05 0030 UTC # Prepared by the US Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center # Product description and SWPC contact on the Web # http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/wwire.html # # Forecast Discussion # Solar Activity .24 hr Summary... Solar activity reached moderate levels. Regions 4099 (S14W64, Dao/beta) and 4100 (N10W54, Eai/beta-gamma) continued to decay with the latter being the culprit for an M1.1 flare at 04/2328 UTC, which was the largest event of the period. New Region 4106 (N12E11, Cro/beta) was numbered. An approximate 20 degree filament eruption, centered near N23E50, occurred at 04/0948 UTC. A possibly related CME was observed off the NE limb at 04/1212 UTC. The CME is unlikely to have an Earth-directed component, but analysis is in progress. .Forecast... Solar activity is expected to be low with a chance for M-class flares (R1-R2/Minor-Moderate) and a slight chance for an X-class flare (R3-Strong) on 05-07 Jun. Energetic Particle .24 hr Summary... The greater than 2 MeV electron flux reached moderate to high levels with a peak flux of 3,970 pfu at 04/1340 UTC. The greater than 10 MeV proton flux continued to decline towards background levels. .Forecast... The greater than 2 MeV electron flux is expected to continue at moderate to high levels through 07 Jun. There is a slight chance for an S1 (Minor) proton event on 05-07 Jun. Solar Wind .24 hr Summary... Solar wind speed parameters increased over the period. This could either be transient influence or a transition back into the HSS. Solar wind speed increased from approximately 550 km/s to near 810 km/s before decreasing to around 760 km/s. Total field increased to 15 nT at 04/1356 UTC before gradually decreasing to near 9 nT while the Bz component was between +10/-11 nT. Phi angle was mostly negative with several deviations into a positive sector. .Forecast... Solar wind parameters are expected to transition into HSS activity by 05 Jun and persist through 07 Jun. By mid to late on 07 Jun, a glancing blow from the 03 Jun CME is expected to cause an enhancement in magnetic field parameters. However, it is not likely to cause any appreciable SW speed increase, considering its relatively slower speed. Geospace .24 hr Summary... The geomagnetic field was at quiet to G1 (Minor) storm conditions. .Forecast... Active to G2 (Moderate) storm levels are expected through early to midday on 05 Jun due to a transition into CH HSS activity. Quiet to active levels are expected to prevail on 06-07 June. By mid to late on 07 Jun, G1 (Minor) storm conditions are likely with the arrival of the 03 Jun CME.