063
FXXX12 KWNP 310031
DAYDIS

:Product: Forecast Discussion
:Issued: 2025 Jan 31 0030 UTC
# Prepared by the US Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center
# Product description and SWPC contact on the Web
# http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/wwire.html
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#             Forecast Discussion
#
Solar Activity

.24 hr Summary...
Solar activity was at low levels. The majority of the activity continued
to originate from the conglomerate of spot groups in the NE, consisting
of Regions 3976 (N13E42, Dac/beta-gamma-delta), 3977 (N19E42, Cao/beta)
and 3978 (N11E52, Cao/beta). Region 3976 was the most active, producing
the majority of the flares, as well as the largest of the period: a C8.1
flare at 30/1416 UTC. This region continued to exhibit growth,
developing a weak delta signature in the area near its leader spot.
Region 3974 (S17E20, Dac/beta) added additional intermediate spots,
while Region 3978 developed a couple of trailer spots. New Regions 3980
(S10E61, Cao/beta) and 3981 (N05E66, Hsx/alpha) rotated further onto the
solar disk and were numbered. The remaining regions were relatively
unchanged.

From about 30/1300-1500 UTC an approximately 18 long filament, centered
near S35E30, was observed in GONG H-alpha imagery lifting off from the
solar disk. Associated signatures were observed in SUVI 195 and 284
imagery, as well as in LASCO coronagraph images. Analysis is underway to
determine if there is an Earth-directed CME and the impacts, if any,
when/if it arrives at Earth.

.Forecast...
Solar activity is expected to be low with a chance for M-class flares on
31 Jan - 01 Feb, and likely to be moderate with a slight chance for an
X-class flare on 02 Feb, due to enhanced activity from the cluster of
Active Regions in the NE.

Energetic Particle

.24 hr Summary...
The greater than 2 MeV electron flux has been at moderate levels. The
greater than 10 MeV proton flux was at background levels.

.Forecast...
The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geostationary orbit is expected
to remain mostly at normal to moderate levels on 31 Jan. A coronal hole
high speed stream is expected to arrive late on 31 Jan to early on 01
Feb, increasing the chance of the 2 MeV electron flux reaching high
levels.

The greater than 10 MeV protons is expected to remain at background
levels 31 Jan - 02 Feb.

Solar Wind

.24 hr Summary...
The solar wind environment was at background levels for the first half
of the period. After approximately 03/1500 UTC, total field began to
experience a weak enhancement, increasing unsteadily from around 6 nT to
peak near 16 nT. The Bz component became variable, ranging from -12 nT
to 14 nT. Solar wind speeds were slow to respond, but did eventually
increase from 300 km/s to peak just over 365 km/s. The phi angle was
mostly in a positive (away from the Sun) orientation.

Forecast...
Weak enhancements in the solar wind parameters, presumably associated
with the 28 Jan CME, are likely to persist through early 31 Jan.
Additional enhancements are then expected with the anticipated onset of
the positive polarity coronal holes later in the period, lasting through
01-02 Feb.

Geospace

.24 hr Summary...
The geomagnetic field was quiet.

.Forecast...
The geomagnetic field is expected to be quiet to unsettled, with a
slight chance for active conditions early on 31 Jan, due to possible
influence from the 28 Jan CME. Later in the period, a positive polarity
CH HSS is expected to move into a geoeffective position, bringing in
active levels, with G1 (Minor) storm conditions likely. G1 conditions
are likely to persist through 01 Feb before gradually returning to quiet
to unsettled levels on 02 Feb.