Routine Space Environment Product (Daily)
Issued by NWS
Issued by NWS
498 FXXX12 KWNP 020146 DAYDIS :Product: Forecast Discussion :Issued: 2026 Feb 02 0145 UTC # Prepared by the US Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center # Product description and SWPC contact on the Web # http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/wwire.html # # Forecast Discussion # Solar Activity .24 hr Summary... Solar activity was very high as Region 4366 (N14E34, Ekc/beta-gamma-delta) grew explosively over the past 24 hours to end the period with an area over 500 microhemispheres. The largest flare of the period was an X8.1 at 01/2357 UTC and had not ended as this discussion was being written. Another X1 flare and 17 M-class flares were attributed to the region. Another There were an additional six regions on the visible disk, including newly numbered Region 4369 (S01E71, Hsx/Alpha). These regions were generally stable and unproductive. CMEs were observed in GOES CCOR-1 and SOHO/LASCO C3 coronagraph imagery around 01/0132 and 01/1332 UTC emerging from the west and southeast limbs respectively but were not Earth-directed. The recent X8.1 flare appeared to produce a CME as dimming was observed in SUVI 195 imagery. We are currently waiting on coronagraph imagery for further analysis. .Forecast... Moderate to high solar activity is anticipated for the next three days. Region 4366 is expected to continue producting M-class flares and another X-class event would not be surprising. Trends in area and magnetic complexity at this time suggest the threat will linger for at least the next 24 hours, and flare probabilities have been raised through 04 Feb accordingly. Energetic Particle .24 hr Summary... The greater than 10 MeV proton flux at geosynchronous orbit remained at background levels. The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit reached high (7080 pfu) levels again today. .Forecast... The greater than 2 MeV electron flux is expected to remain at moderate to high levels through 04 Feb. The greater than 10 MeV proton flux is likely to exceed the S1 (Minor) levels on 02 Feb with a chance on 03 Feb due to the recent X8.1 flare from Region 4366 at 01/2357 UTC. Solar Wind .24 hr Summary... Solar wind measurements at L1 were absent transient or recurrent influences. Solar wind speed declined from 400 to 300 km/s. Bt remained at or below 6 nT. Phi remained negative for most of the period. .Forecast... A quiescent solar wind regime is expected to continue through 04 Feb barring any significant eruptive events. Geospace .24 hr Summary... The geomagnetic field was quiet. .Forecast... The geomagnetic field is expected to remain quiet for the next three days barring any significant eruptive events.