598
FXXX12 KWNP 221231
DAYDIS

:Product: Forecast Discussion
:Issued: 2025 Apr 22 1230 UTC
# Prepared by the US Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center
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#             Forecast Discussion
#
Solar Activity

.24 hr Summary...
Solar activity reached moderate levels with an impulsive M1.9/1n flare
at 21/1834 UTC from Region 4062 (S03W17, Dki/beta) and a long duration
M1.3 at 22/1048 UTC from just beyond the W limb. Low level C-class
activity occurred from Regions 4063 (N04W70, Cro/beta) and 4064 (N11E01,
Eki/beta). Slight decay was observed in Region 4062 and in the
intermediate spots of Region 4064. Slight growth occurred in Region
4063. New Regions 4069 (S09E20, Cso/beta) and 4070 (S13E49, Cso/beta)
were numbered and exhibited growth. A CME was observed from the vicinity
of AR 4065 beginning near 22/0840 UTC. Analysis is ongoing at the time
of this summary but the bulk of the ejecta is likely to be directed
south of Earths orbit.

.Forecast...
Solar activity is expected to be low with a chance of M-class flares
(R1-R2, Minor-Moderate) over 22-24 Apr.

Energetic Particle

.24 hr Summary...
The greater than 2 MeV electron flux was at normal to moderate levels
and the greater than 10 MeV proton flux was at background levels.

.Forecast...
The greater than 2 MeV electron flux is likely to reach high levels over
22-24 Apr due to HSS influence. The greater than 10 MeV proton flux is
expected to continue at background levels.


Solar Wind

.24 hr Summary...
Solar wind parameters indicated the onset of a positive polarity CH HSS.
Total field ranged from 12-18 nT early in the period, but calmed to
around 10 nT by 21/1300 UTC. The Bz component was fluctuating between
+11/-9 nT. Solar wind speed exhibited an increase at 21/0600 UTC from
approximately 430 km/s to near 700 km/s. Phi angle was positive.

.Forecast...
Solar wind parameters are expected to continue to be influenced by
positive polarity, CH HSS conditions through 24 Apr. Solar wind speeds
in the 700-800 km/s range are likely based on recurrence.

Geospace

.24 hr Summary...
The geomagnetic field reached active to G1 (Minor) storm levels due to
the onset of CH HSS activity.

.Forecast...
The geomagnetic field is likely to reach G1-G2 (Minor-Moderate) storm
levels through midday on 22 Apr as HSS activity persists. Unsettled to
G1 (Minor) storming is likely on 23 Apr, followed by unsettled to active
conditions on 24 Apr.