973
FXXX12 KWNP 121231
DAYDIS

:Product: Forecast Discussion
:Issued: 2026 May 12 1230 UTC
# Prepared by the US Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center
# Product description and SWPC contact on the Web
# http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/wwire.html
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#             Forecast Discussion
#
Solar Activity

.24 hr Summary...
Solar activity remained at low levels, with few minor C-class flares
originated at Region 4432 (N14W77, Eko/beta-gamma) during the period.
There are 4 active regions on the visible solar disk. Regions 4432, 4433
(S17W46, Hax/alpha) and 4436 (N19E34, Cao/beta) decayed in the last 24h,
while Region 4435 (N23W35, Hsx/alpha) remained stable.

Coronal activity was observed, but no Earth-directed component was
identified in the available coronagraph imagery.

.Forecast...
Solar activity is expected to remain predominately at low levels through
14 May, with a decreasing chance for M-class (R1-R2/Minor-Moderate)
flares, as Region 4432 rotates off the disk in the next days. A slight
chance for an X-class (R3/Strong) isolated flare still exists until the
end of the 12 May UTC-day, due to the combined flare potential of
Regions 4432 and 4436.

Energetic Particle

.24 hr Summary...
The greater than 2 MeV electron flux was at normal to moderate levels.
The greater than 10 MeV proton flux was at background levels.

.Forecast...
The greater than 2 MeV electron flux is expected to remain at moderate
levels through 14 May. There is a slight chance for the greater than 10
MeV proton flux to reach S1 (Minor) levels until the end of the 12 May
UTC-day, mostly due to the combined flare potential of Regions 4432 and
4436.

Solar Wind

.24 hr Summary...
The solar wind parameters near Earth reflected undisturbed conditions.
Total magnetic field strength briefly reached 8 nT around 11/1230 UTC,
but remained around 5 nT most of the period. The north-south Bz
component oscillated between -6/6 nT, the solar wind speeds were
generally between 350-400 km/s, and the phi angle was predominantly
positive.

.Forecast...
Solar wind parameters are expected to remain at ambient levels until
late on 12 May to early on 13 May when a glancing blow disturbance is
possible from the 10 May CME. A positive polarity CH HSS is expected to
become geoeffective on 13-14 May, and associated disturbances in the
solar wind parameters near Earth are anticipated.

Geospace

.24 hr Summary...
The geomagnetic field was quiet during the period.

.Forecast...
The geomagnetic field is expected to reach active conditions late on 12
May, early on 13 May, due to a possible glancing blow of the 10 May CME
event and/or effects of a positive polarity CH HSS. Mostly unsettled
levels are expected on 14 May as the positive polarity CH HSS effects
wane.