Routine Space Environment Product (Daily)
Issued by NWS
Issued by NWS
628 FXXX12 KWNP 130031 DAYDIS :Product: Forecast Discussion :Issued: 2025 Sep 13 0030 UTC # Prepared by the US Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center # Product description and SWPC contact on the Web # http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/wwire.html # # Forecast Discussion # Solar Activity .24 hr Summary... Solar activity was at very low levels. All five active regions on the disk were either stable or in decay. A large prominence eruption was observed near S50W90 at ~12/1445 UTC, but the associated CME is not Earth-directed. .Forecast... Solar activity is expected to reach low levels, with a slight chance for an isolated M-flare (R1-R2/Minor-Moderate), through 15 Sep. Energetic Particle .24 hr Summary... The greater than 2 MeV electron flux exceeded 1,000 pfu briefly late in the day, but did not meet the alert criteria for high levels. The greater than 10 MeV proton flux was steady at background levels. .Forecast... The greater than 2 MeV electron flux is likely to reach high levels on 13-14 Sep, before decreasing to normal to moderate levels on 15 Sep in response to elevated geomagnetic activity. The greater than 10 MeV proton flux is expected to persist at background levels through 15 Sep. Solar Wind .24 hr Summary... Solar wind parameters reflected the waning influences of a positive polarity CH HSS. Total field ranged between 5-8 nT, while the Bz component varied between +/-6 nT. Solar wind speeds were steady, averaging around 400 km/s. The phi angle remained positive. .Forecast... The solar wind environment is likely to become enhanced late on 13 Sep through 15 Sep due to CIR effects followed by negative polarity CH HSS influences. There is a chance to see some weak influence from the 11 Sep CME late 14 Sep through early 15 Sep as it passes in close proximity to Earth. Geospace .24 hr Summary... The geomagnetic field was quiet and unsettled under waning positive polarity CH HSS influences. .Forecast... The geomagnetic field is expected to be quiet and unsettled on 13 Sep with CIR effects likely late in the day. On 14-15 Sep, periods of active conditions are likely, with a chance for G1 (Minor) storm periods, due to negative polarity CH HSS influences. There is a chance to see some weak influence from the 11 Sep CME late 14 Sep through early 15 Sep as it passes in close proximity to Earth.