Routine Space Environment Product (Daily)
Issued by NWS
Issued by NWS
522 FXXX12 KWNP 220031 DAYDIS :Product: Forecast Discussion :Issued: 2025 Jul 22 0030 UTC # Prepared by the US Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center # Product description and SWPC contact on the Web # http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/wwire.html # # Forecast Discussion # Solar Activity .24 hr Summary... Solar activity was at low levels with only C-class flare activity. Region 4143 (N26W78, Dao/beta) produced a C5.1 flare at 21/0009 UTC, which was the largest event of the period. Region 4149 (N17E44, Esi/beta-gamma) underwent evolution as it grew in overall length and developed spots in its intermediate area. Region 4152 (N09E63, Axx/alpha) was numbered this period, but was otherwise unremarkable. A filament eruption centered near S26W02 was observed in GOES SUVI 304 imagery at approximately 21/0300 UTC. A subsequent narrow CME was then observed in LASCO C2 coronagraph imagery beginning around 21/0336 UTC, but initial modeling efforts determined this event to be a miss south of Earth. No Earth-directed CMEs were observed in available coronagraph imagery. .Forecast... Solar activity is expected to be low with a chance for M-class flares (R1-R2/Minor-Moderate) through 24 Jul with a slight chance for an isolated X-class flare (R3-Strong) on 22 Jul as Regions 4136 and 4143 rotate beyond the western limb. Energetic Particle .24 hr Summary... The greater than 2 MeV electron flux reached high levels with a peak flux of 13,000 pfu observed at 21/1700 UTC. The greater than 10 MeV proton flux was steady at background levels throughout the period. .Forecast... The greater than 2 MeV electron flux is expected to reach high levels through 24 Jul. There is a slight chance for the greater than 10 MeV proton flux to reach S1 (Minor) solar radiation storm levels through 22 Jul. Solar Wind .24 hr Summary... The solar wind environment reflected the return of ambient conditions. The total magnetic field strength primarily ranged 5-7 nT and the Bz component was near neutral or northward. Solar wind speeds gradually decreased, ending the period near 360 km/s. Phi was predominantly in a positive solar sector. .Forecast... Enhanced solar wind conditions are anticipated to arrive by late 22 Jul in advance of a recurrent, negative polarity CH HSS. A disturbed solar wind regime is expected to then continue through 24 Jul. Geospace .24 hr Summary... The geomagnetic field was at quiet levels throughout the period. .Forecast... Unsettled to active levels are expected on 22 and 24 Jul due to negative polarity CH HSS effects. G1 (Minor) geomagnetic storming is most likely on 23 Jul during the CIR phase and onset of faster solar wind.