712
FXXX12 KWNP 270031
DAYDIS

:Product: Forecast Discussion
:Issued: 2024 Nov 27 0030 UTC
# Prepared by the US Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center
# Product description and SWPC contact on the Web
# http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/wwire.html
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#             Forecast Discussion
#
Solar Activity

.24 hr Summary...
Solar flare activity has been at low levels with only C-Class flares
occurring since the start of the UTC day. Region 3906 (S16E19,
Ekc/beta-gamma-delta) continues to show a complex magnetic field with a
delta in its trailer. Its interior spots have consolidated towards the
leader which has diminished in size. Region 3905 (S09E12,
Eki/beta-gamma) has seen growth in the spot complex near the trailer
where the delta comes and goes. The two aforementioned regions have been
the primary flare producers over the period. The other region of note is
Region 3907 (S22W24, Dao/beta-delta) which is displaying a complex
trailing spot in a rather simple region. It has been inactive but the
growth over a short period suggests it may not stay quiet. Region 3910
(N16E69, Dko/beta) continues to come into better view with a small
leader and a large trailer, the mag field is to obscured by
foreshortening to have confidence beyond a beta classification. A new
region emerged starting around 26/1000 UTC and has been numbered Region
3911 (S14W33, Cro/beta).  All other regions have been either stable or
in decay.

There have been no new Earth-directed CMEs observed in coronagraph
imagery.

.Forecast...
R1-R2 (Minor-Moderate) radio blackout activity is likely with a slight
chance for R3 (Strong) radio blackouts 27-29 Nov due to the complexity
of multiple regions on the disk particularly Regions 3905 and 3906.

Energetic Particle

.24 hr Summary...
The greater than 2 MeV electron flux was at normal to moderate levels.
The greater than 10 MeV proton flux returned to background levels.

.Forecast...
The greater than 2 MeV electron flux is expected to continue at normal
to moderate levels into the 28 Nov. An increase in electron flux is
possible with the arrival of the CME associated with the filament
eruption that occurred on 25/2024 but will likely remain below
threshold. There is a slight chance for the greater than 10 MeV electron
flux to reach S1 (Minor) radiation storm levels 27-29 Nov due to the
enhanced flare activity from Regions 3905 and 3906.

Solar Wind

.24 hr Summary...
Solar wind parameters continue to reflect weak, negative polarity CH HSS
influence. Total field was 4-7 nT with the Bz component remaining
positive (north) through much of the period and remaining between +/-6
nT. Solar wind speeds averaged around 370 km/s. The phi angle remained
in the negative (towards the Sun) orientation through much of the
period.

.Forecast...
Solar wind parameters will continue to wane towards nominal conditions
as the CH HSS ends 27 Nov. An enhanced field is likely with the arrival
of the CME associated with the filament eruption late 28 Nov into 29
Nov. Solar wind speeds will likely see a rise with a more variable
magnetic field.

Geospace

.24 hr Summary...
The geomagnetic field was at quiet to unsettled levels.

.Forecast...
The geomagnetic field is expected to remain at quiet levels 27 Nov as
the CH HSS influences wane. A CME associated with a filament eruption
occurred on 25/2024 near Region 3901 (S09W46, Hax/alpha). The filament
eruption was modeled and is projected to hit Earth mid to late day on 28
Nov. Filaments tend to be slower movers and can linger longer allowing
it to disturb Earths magnetic field longer. Therefore, a G1 Watch has
been issued for the initial disturbance on 28 Nov with a G2 Watch for
lingering enhancements into 29 Nov.

-Bri