Routine Space Environment Product (Daily)
Issued by NWS
Issued by NWS
506 FXXX12 KWNP 151231 DAYDIS :Product: Forecast Discussion :Issued: 2026 Jul 15 1230 UTC # Prepared by the US Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center # Product description and SWPC contact on the Web # http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/wwire.html # # Forecast Discussion # Solar Activity .24 hr Summary... Solar activity remained at low levels, with occasional B- and low-level C-class flaring observed including an occulted C3.9 flare at 14/1239 UTC from beyond the southeast limb near S10 and a C3.3/Sf flare at 15/0846 UTC from Region 4489 (S08E52, Cso/beta). There are two numbered sunspot regions on the visible disk. Region 4482 (S09W62, Cho/beta) showed minor new flux emergence behind its mature primary spot, developing a bipolar configuration. As Region 4489 rotated further into view and limb foreshortening effects decreased, very small opposite-polarity trailing spots became visible, making it a stable bipolar group. Additionally, a small, magnetically simple region tracked in Solar Orbiter imagery has begun to rotate over the east limb near S10. No Earth-directed CMEs were observed in available coronagraph imagery. .Forecast... Solar activity is expected to remain at low levels through 17 July, with a slight chance for M-class (R1-R2/Minor-Moderate) flares primarily driven by active regions anticipated to rotate onto the visible disk over the next few days. Energetic Particle .24 hr Summary... The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit was at moderate levels, with a peak flux of 838 pfu observed at 14/1800 UTC. The greater than 10 MeV proton flux at geosynchronous orbit remained at background levels. .Forecast... The greater than 2 MeV electron flux is expected to remain at normal to moderate levels 15-17 July. The greater than 10 MeV proton flux is expected to continue at background levels through 17 July. Solar Wind .24 hr Summary... Solar wind parameters reflected glancing CME effects and subsequent weak positive polarity coronal hole high-speed stream (+CH HSS) influences. Weak CME arrival features were observed at approximately 14/1440 UTC, with the total magnetic field strength (Bt) rising to approximately 15 nT before steadily declining to around 5 nT near the end of the period. The North-South (Bz) component was northward prior to the arrival, then fluctuated between +12 nT and -8 nT later in the period. Solar wind started the period around 350 km/s and steadily rose to end the period between 450 and 500 km/s. The phi angle was in the negative sector until approximately 14/1800 UTC, after which it became variable but predominantly within the positive sector. .Forecast... Weakly enhanced solar wind conditions are expected to continue through 15 July due to the combined effects of the weak CME transient and the onset of the positive polarity +CH HSS. High-speed stream conditions are anticipated to slowly diminish over 16-17 July. Geospace .24 hr Summary... The geomagnetic field began the reporting period at quiet levels, but reached unsettled to active levels following CME arrival. .Forecast... Quiet to active levels are expected on 15 July due to the combination of weak CME influences and +CH HSS onset. Activity is anticipated to decrease to mostly quiet to unsettled levels over 16-17 July.