Routine Space Environment Product (Daily)
Issued by NWS
Issued by NWS
734 FXXX12 KWNP 181231 DAYDIS :Product: Forecast Discussion :Issued: 2024 Oct 18 1230 UTC # Prepared by the US Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center # Product description and SWPC contact on the Web # http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/wwire.html # # Forecast Discussion # Solar Activity .24 hr Summary... Solar activity was at low levels. This region also produced numerous C-class flares. Region 3852 indicated little change, while Region 3856 showed some intermediate spot growth. Region 3857 (S07E18, Dao/beta-gamma) showed growth in its leader spots. New Region 3860 (S07E08, Dai/beta) emerged this period and produced C-class flare activity. No Earth-directed CMEs were observed. .Forecast... Solar activity is expected to be at low levels, with moderate levels (R1-R2, Minor-Moderate) likely on 18-20 Oct. There is a slight chance for X-class flares (R3, Strong) through 20 Oct. Energetic Particles .24 hr Summary... The greater than 2 MeV electron flux was at normal to moderate levels. The greater than 10 MeV proton flux remained near background levels. .Forecast... The greater than 2 MeV electron flux is expected to be at normal to moderate levels through 18 Oct with a potential to increase to high levels on 19-20 Oct due to influence from a positive polarity coronal hole high speed stream (CH HSS). The greater than 10 MeV proton flux is expected to remain at background levels with a slight chance for a solar radiation storm event through 20 Oct as Regions 3852 and 3854 transit the western limb. Solar Wind .24 hr Summary... Solar wind parameters were slightly enhanced due to CH HSS effects. Total magnetic field reached 7 nT while the Bz component remained variable between +/- 6 nT. Wind speeds slowly decreased through the period from a high near 450 km/s to a low of about 360 km/s. The phi angle was steady in a positive sector. .Forecast... Influence from a large, positive polarity CH HSS is anticipated early on 18 Oct and to continue through 20 Oct. Enhanced solar wind parameters are expected. Geospace .24 hr Summary... The geomagnetic field was at quiet to unsettled levels. .Forecast... Active levels are anticipated on 18-20 Oct due to the influence of a large, positive polarity CH HSS. There is a chance of G1 (Minor storm) conditions on 18 Oct due to a potential glancing blow from an eruption on the western limb associated with the M2 flare from Region 3854 on 15 Oct at 1833 UTC.