447
FXXX12 KWNP 120031
DAYDIS

:Product: Forecast Discussion
:Issued: 2026 Feb 12 0030 UTC
# Prepared by the US Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center
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#             Forecast Discussion
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Solar Activity

.24 hr Summary...
Solar activity reached moderate levels during the reporting period. The
strongest event was an M1.4 flare observed at 11/1312 UTC from departed
Region 4366 (N09, L=204). This region also produced nine C-class flares.
Region 4373 (N09W02, Hsx/alpha) produced a C1.8/Sf flare at 11/1804 UTC.
This region displayed some minor area growth. Regions 4369 (S03W63,
Hsx/alpha) and 4371 (S24W46, Axx/alpha) exhibited some minor decay. The
other spotted regions remained unchanged. New Region 4375 (N16E72,
Hsx/alpha) was numbered.

A small loop structure near S22W80 erupted around 10/1948Z, first
visible in LASCO C2 at 10/1924Z. Around the same time, a large filament
(located near N15W25) lifted off and disappeared from GONG H-alpha
imagery. Between faint features in disk imagery and a data gap in STEREO
coronagraph imagery, it is difficult to determine whether the filament
is superimposed over the earlier eruption or largely fell back down to
the Sun. Analysis of the coronagraph structure indicates there is no
Earth-directed component; however, there is the potential for
interaction between the eruption and the co-rotating interaction region
(CIR) ahead of an anticipated high-speed stream, which may cause the CIR
to become compressed and arrive later than under ambient conditions.

.Forecast...
Solar activity is expected to be at low levels through 14 Feb.
Probability for M-class (R1-R2) dropped to a slight chance on 12-14 Feb
and a slight chance for X-class (R3 or greater) flares on 12 Feb as
Region 4366 continues to rotate behind the western limb.


Energetic Particle

.24 hr Summary...
The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit reached
moderate levels with a maximum flux of 940 pfu observed at 11/1945 UTC.
The greater than 10 MeV proton flux remained at background levels
throughout the period.

.Forecast...
The greater than 2 MeV electron flux is expected to reach high levels on
12-13 Feb and normal to moderate levels on 14 Feb.


Solar Wind

.24 hr Summary...
Solar wind parameters continued to reflect waning influence of a
negative
polarity coronal hole high-speed stream (-CH HSS) with discrete mild
disturbances likely associated with embedded transient structures. Solar
wind speeds remained generally elevated, slowly decreasing from ~500
km/s to ~400 km/s by the end of the reporting period. Total magnetic
field (Bt) remained around 7 nT with the North-South (Bz) component
southward for the
majority of the period, attaining a maximum southward deflection of -7
nT. The Phi angle remained in a predominantly negative (towards the Sun)
orientation with some isolated intervals of northward Bz.

.Forecast...
The solar wind environment near Earth is likely to be mostly undisturbed
on Feb 12-13 as there are no recurrent or transient disturbances
anticipated those days. On 14 Feb, the wind environment is expected to
become more enhanced late in the day due to CIR effects from a large
positive polarity CH HSS coupled with possible weak CME effects from the
11 Feb eruption.


Geospace

.24 hr Summary...
The geomagnetic field has been at quiet to active levels for the past
24 hours.

.Forecast...
The geomagnetic field is expected to be at mostly quiet to unsettled
levels on 12-13 Feb. Mostly unsettled levels are likely for 14 Feb due
to CIR effects from a large positive polarity CH HSS coupled with
possible weak CME effects from the 11 Feb eruption late in the day.