Routine Space Environment Product (Daily)
Issued by NWS
Issued by NWS
978 FXXX12 KWNP 021231 DAYDIS :Product: Forecast Discussion :Issued: 2026 Jan 02 1230 UTC # Prepared by the US Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center # Product description and SWPC contact on the Web # http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/wwire.html # # Forecast Discussion # Solar Activity .24 hr Summary... Solar activity was at low levels due to numerous low- to mid-level C-class flares. The largest flare of the period was a C6.5 at 02/0017 UTC from newly numbered Region 4333 (S11E10, Cso/beta). This region developed quickly and was responsible for several other C-class flares as well. Region 4317 (N11, L=016) produced a couple of smaller C-flares as it rotated around the west limb. Regions 4324 (N24W09, Dai/beta-delta) and 4325 (S08W17, Eki/beta-gamma) both continued to exhibit weak decay, but added a couple of C-class flares as well. Region 4324 produced a C6.2 flare at 01/1759 UTC. An associated CME signature was observed in SOHO/LASCO C2 imagery beginning at 01/1912 UTC. Initial analysis and modeling of the event indicated a possible Earth-directed component with a likely arrival at Earth near midday on 04 Jan. Additional modeling will be accomplished to determine magnitude and degree of impact. All other spot groups were either stable or in decay. .Forecast... Solar activity is expected to be low with M-class flares (R1-R2, Minor-Moderate) likely, and a slight chance for X-class flares (R3-Strong), on 02 Jan. Levels are likely to decrease to a chance for M-class activity and a slight chance for an isolated X-class flare on 03-04 Jan as most regions on the visible disk continue to decay. Energetic Particle .24 hr Summary... The greater than 2 MeV electron flux reached high levels with a peak of 1,918 pfu at 01/1530 UTC before decreasing once more to moderate levels. The greater than 10 MeV proton flux remained at background levels. .Forecast... The greater than 2 MeV electron flux is expected to return to high levels 03-04 Jan. There is a slight chance for a greater than 10 MeV proton event today through 04 Jan. Solar Wind .24 hr Summary... Solar wind parameters were indicative of likely negative polarity CH HSS influence. The total magnetic field (Bt) ranged from 2-10 nT while the Bz component ranged between +/-8 nT. Solar wind speed was between 450-550 km/s for most of the period before increasing to peak near 640 km/s the latter part of the period. Phi angle was predominantly negative (towards the Sun). .Forecast... Solar wind parameters are expected to be disturbed over 02-04 Jan due to a combination of CH HSS and CME activity. There is the potential for glancing influences late on 02 Jan into 03 Jan from CMEs that left the Sun on 28-30 Dec. Additional enhancements are possible again on 04 Jan with the possible indirect impact of the CME that left the Sun on 02 Jan. Geospace .24 hr Summary... The geomagnetic field was at unsettled to active levels. .Forecast... The geomagnetic field is expected to reach unsettled to G1 (Minor) storming levels on 02 Jan due to the combination of HSS activity and potential glancing blows from the 28-30 Dec CMEs. By late on 02 Jan to early on 03 Jan, the arrival of the 31 Dec CME is expected to cause unsettled to G1-G2 (Minor-Moderate) storming. Additional geomagnetic storming is anticipated on 04 Jan with the possible impact of the 02 Jan CME.