Routine Space Environment Product (Daily)
Issued by NWS
Issued by NWS
236 FXXX12 KWNP 020031 DAYDIS :Product: Forecast Discussion :Issued: 2026 Mar 02 0030 UTC # Prepared by the US Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center # Product description and SWPC contact on the Web # http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/wwire.html # # Forecast Discussion # Solar Activity .24 hr Summary... Solar activity continued at low levels with frequent C-class flaring. The strongest event of the period was a C6.1 flare at 01/0206 UTC from Region 4380 (S21E35, Cao/beta). There are currently six numbered regions on the visible disk. Region 4378 (N16E21, Hhx/alpha) simplified as it lost its trailing spots and transitioned to an H-group. Region 4380 also exhibited simplification and a loss of area in the penumbra of its trailing spots, decaying to a C-group. Region 4381 (N08E55, Eao/beta) remained stable in total area but showed evidence of new flux emergence and an increase in longitudinal length. Three new regions were numbered during the period. Region 4382 (N22W48, Bxo/beta) and Region 4383 (N15W10, Bxo/beta) emerged as stable B-groups. Region 4384 (N10E75, Hsx/alpha) rotated onto the visible disk as a large H-group and was responsible for multiple C-class flares during the period; however, limb proximity may be obscuring trailing components and foreshortening limits a definitive characterization of the regions complexity. No Earth-directed CMEs were observed in available coronagraph imagery. .Forecast... Solar activity is expected to be at low levels, with a chance for isolated M-class activity (R1-R2/Minor-Moderate) through 04 Mar. Energetic Particle .24 hr Summary... The greater than 2 MeV electron flux reached high levels with a peak of 7,042 pfu observed at 01/1720 UTC. The greater than 10 MeV proton flux remained at background levels. .Forecast... The greater than 2 MeV electron flux is expected to reach high levels on 02-04 Mar. The greater than 10 MeV proton flux is expected to continue at background levels through 03 Mar. Solar Wind .24 hr Summary... Solar wind parameters reflected near-background conditions and possible periphery-like influences from the 25 Feb filament eruption. Solar wind speed remained low, generally ranging between 350 and 425 km/s. Total magnetic field (Bt) was steady around 4 nT, while the North-South (Bz) component fluctuated between +4/-4 nT. The Phi angle remained mostly in the negative (towards the Sun) orientation with isolated frequent oscillations into the positive sector near the middle of the period. .Forecast... Enhancements in solar wind conditions are likely through 02 - 04 Mar due to the onset of positive polarity CH HSS influences. Geospace .24 hr Summary... The geomagnetic field was at quiet to unsettled levels. .Forecast... The geomagnetic field is expected to reach unsettled levels on 02 Mar as positive polarity CH HSS influences begin. Activity is likely to persist at unsettled levels with isolated active periods 03-04 Mar as high-speed stream influences continue to influence geomagnetic activity.