Routine Space Environment Product (Daily)
Issued by NWS
Issued by NWS
827 FXXX12 KWNP 081231 DAYDIS :Product: Forecast Discussion :Issued: 2024 Nov 08 1230 UTC # Prepared by the US Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center # Product description and SWPC contact on the Web # http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/wwire.html # # Forecast Discussion # Solar Activity .24 hr Summary... Solar activity was at moderate levels. Region 3883 (S06W14, Fkc/beta-gamma) produced the period, an M2.3/1f (R1-Minor) at 07/1506 UTC. The region remained the most complex on the visible disk but exhibited minor slight decay among its intermediate spots. Regions 3886 (S07E07, Eai/beta-gamma) and 3889 (S10E59, Ekc/beta-delta) were also fairly complex but no significant changes were observed in the past 24 hours. No Earth-directed CMEs were observed in available coronagraph imagery. .Forecast... Solar activity is expected to be moderate with continued M-Class (R1-R2/Minor-Moderate) flaring and a chance for X-Class (R3-Strong) levels 08-10 Nov. Solar flare probabilities are being driven by Regions 3883, 3886, and 3889 due to their history and magnetic complexities. Energetic Particles .24 hr Summary... The greater than 2 MeV electron flux exceeded the 1000 pfu threshold at GOES-16 at 07/1535 UTC and dropped below threshold at 11/1710 UTC. The greater than 10 MeV proton flux has remained at background levels. .Forecast... The greater than 2 MeV electron flux will likely continue at moderate levels with periods near threshold 08-10 Nov as CME and CH influences continue. There is a slight chance for the greater than 10 MeV proton flux to reach S1 (Minor) storming levels 08-10 Nov due to the flare potential of Regions 3883, 3886, and 3889. Solar Wind .24 hr Summary... Solar wind parameters became enhanced starting at 07/1425 UTC from what is most likely the glancing blow from the CME associated with the M3.8 flare on 04/1058 UTC. The total field reached 8nT with the Bz component dropping to -2 nT at the time of arrival. The total field continued to strengthen reaching a max of 9 nT with a -6 nT Bz component. Solar wind speed reached a max of 448 km/s and has been slowly trending towards 350 km/s. Around 08/0000 UTC, the Bz component rotated and remained oriented far north. .Forecast... Waning CME influences as well as a weak negative polarity CH91 HSS are expected over 08 Nov. Solar wind parameters may become enhanced again as a large, positive polarity CH HSS in the southern hemisphere and a large, negative polarity CH HSS in the northern hemisphere becomes geoeffective 09-10 Nov. Geospace .24 hr Summary... The geomagnetic field has been quiet to unsettled. .Forecast... Unsettled to active conditions will likely remain over 08-10 Nov from waning CME influences and the arrival of the two CH HSSs.