Routine Space Environment Product (Daily)
Issued by NWS
Issued by NWS
045 FXXX12 KWNP 071231 DAYDIS :Product: Forecast Discussion :Issued: 2025 Oct 07 1230 UTC # Prepared by the US Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center # Product description and SWPC contact on the Web # http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/wwire.html # # Forecast Discussion # Solar Activity .24 hr Summary... Solar activity was at low levels. Region 4232 (N03W69, Cho/beta) produced the majority of the activity this period with a few low-level C-class flares. Region 4236 (N10W76, Eai/beta-gamma) maintained a more complex magnetic configuration with a mixed polarity configuration in its intermediate area, but was relatively quiet. Region 4241 (N13W30, Eao/beta) developed an additional leading spot. Regions 4242 (S11W22, Dai/beta) quietly underwent minor growth while Region 4245 (S11W32, Cro/beta) developed just ahead of it and was subsequently numbered. Regions 4246 (N24E59, Axx/alpha) and 4247 (S11E22, Cro/beta) were also numbered this period and were inactive. No discernable CME was observed from the filament eruption centered near S20E25 at the end of 05 Oct. Another filament eruption occurred in the vicinity of Region 4233 (N19, L=052) with an associated C5.1 flare at 06/2037 UTC. Analysis and model results reflected the ejecta to be well ahead of Earths orbit. An additional eruption was noted in the SE near S20E45 - associated with a filament eruption near 4244. Modelling is ongoing at the time of this summary. .Forecast... A moderate chance for R1-R2 (Minor-Moderate) radio blackouts due to M-class flare activity, with a slight chance for an isolated R3 (Strong) event, will persist through 08 Oct. Probabilities undergo a minor decrease on 09 Oct as Region 4236 exits the western limb. Energetic Particle .24 hr Summary... The greater than 2 MeV electron flux continued to reach high levels with a peak flux of 17,900 pfu observed at 06/1635 UTC. The greater than 10 MeV proton flux remained below the S1 (Minor) threshold over the past 24 hrs. .Forecast... The greater than 2 MeV electron flux is expected to remain at high levels due to ongoing post high speed stream influences through 08 Oct before returning to moderate levels on 09 Oct. There is a slight chance for the greater than 10 MeV proton flux to reach S1 (Minor) solar radiation storm levels through 08 Oct. Probabilities for an event decrease on 09 Oct as active regions exit the western limb. Solar Wind .24 hr Summary... Solar wind parameters reflected slightly enhanced conditions. Total field ranged 5-10 nT and the Bz component was +/- 8 nT. Solar wind speeds ranged from approximately 380-440 km/s and phi was predominantly positive. .Forecast... Slightly enhanced conditions are expected to continue on 07 Oct. An additional enhancement is likely by late on 07 Oct and continuing into 08 Oct due to coronal mass ejection arrivals from a pair of CMEs that left the Sun on 03 Oct. Geospace .24 hr Summary... Geomagnetic field activity was at quiet to unsettled levels. .Forecast... Geomagnetic field activity will likely reach G1 (Minor) storm levels, with a chance for G2 (Moderate) periods, on 07 and 08 Oct due to CME effects. Primarily unsettled conditions are expected on 09 Oct as CME effects slowly wane.