Routine Space Environment Product (Daily)
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827
FXXX12 KWNP 081231
DAYDIS

:Product: Forecast Discussion
:Issued: 2024 Nov 08 1230 UTC
# Prepared by the US Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center
# Product description and SWPC contact on the Web
# http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/wwire.html
#
#             Forecast Discussion
#
Solar Activity

.24 hr Summary...
Solar activity was at moderate levels. Region 3883 (S06W14,
Fkc/beta-gamma) produced the period, an M2.3/1f (R1-Minor) at 07/1506
UTC. The region remained the most complex on the visible disk but
exhibited minor slight decay among its intermediate spots. Regions 3886
(S07E07, Eai/beta-gamma) and 3889 (S10E59, Ekc/beta-delta) were also
fairly complex but no significant changes were observed in the past 24
hours.

No Earth-directed CMEs were observed in available coronagraph imagery.

.Forecast...
Solar activity is expected to be moderate with continued M-Class
(R1-R2/Minor-Moderate) flaring and a chance for X-Class (R3-Strong)
levels 08-10 Nov. Solar flare probabilities are being driven by Regions
3883, 3886, and 3889 due to their history and magnetic complexities.

Energetic Particles

.24 hr Summary...
The greater than 2 MeV electron flux exceeded the 1000 pfu threshold at
GOES-16 at 07/1535 UTC and dropped below threshold at 11/1710 UTC. The
greater than 10 MeV proton flux has remained at background levels.

.Forecast...
The greater than 2 MeV electron flux will likely continue at moderate
levels with periods near threshold 08-10 Nov as CME and CH influences
continue. There is a slight chance for the greater than 10 MeV proton
flux to reach S1 (Minor) storming levels 08-10 Nov due to the flare
potential of Regions 3883, 3886, and 3889.

Solar Wind

.24 hr Summary...
Solar wind parameters became enhanced starting at 07/1425 UTC from what
is most likely the glancing blow from the CME associated with the M3.8
flare on 04/1058 UTC. The total field reached 8nT with the Bz component
dropping to -2 nT at the time of arrival. The total field continued to
strengthen reaching a max of 9 nT with a -6 nT Bz component. Solar wind
speed reached a max of 448 km/s and has been slowly trending towards 350
km/s. Around 08/0000 UTC, the Bz component rotated and remained oriented
far north.

.Forecast...
Waning CME influences as well as a weak negative polarity CH91 HSS are
expected over 08 Nov. Solar wind parameters may become enhanced again
as a large, positive polarity CH HSS in the southern hemisphere and a
large, negative polarity CH HSS in the northern hemisphere becomes
geoeffective 09-10 Nov.


Geospace

.24 hr Summary...
The geomagnetic field has been quiet to unsettled.

.Forecast...
Unsettled to active conditions will likely remain over 08-10 Nov from
waning CME influences and the arrival of the two CH HSSs.