993
FXXX12 KWNP 240031
DAYDIS

:Product: Forecast Discussion
:Issued: 2024 Nov 24 0030 UTC
# Prepared by the US Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center
# Product description and SWPC contact on the Web
# http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/wwire.html
#
#             Forecast Discussion
#
Solar Activity

.24 hr Summary...
Solar activity continued at moderate levels with additional M-class
flares observed. The first was an M1.1/2n flare at 23/1607 UTC, produced
by Region 3901 (S07W07, Cao/beta-gamma). The second event was an M1.1
flare that originated from just beyond the NE limb at 23/1810 UTC, along
with a few C-class flares. No obvious CMEs were associated with either
of these events. Shortly following the second M-flare, Region 3898
(S15W69, Cao/beta) produced a C5.4 flare at 23/1920 UTC. Coronal dimming
was observed in SUVI 195 imagery that correlates to a CME first observed
in LASCO C2 imagery at 23/1924 UTC. Limited imagery is available at this
time, but a thorough analysis will be conducted as information becomes
available to determine if there is an Earth-directed component. Region
3898 was also responsible for several other C-class flares as it made
its way towards the west limb.

Region 3906 (S16E59, Dai/beta-gamma) was the only region to show any
development, adding intermediate spots as well as additional peripheral
spots near the large trailing spot. It was responsible for a few C-class
flares early in the period, the largest being a C7.0 flare at 23/0320
UTC. New Region 3907 (S21E15, Cro/beta) formed and was numbered, with
the remaining regions showing little change.

Pending results from the modeling of the aforementioned CME, no
Earth-directed CMEs were observed in available coronagraph imagery.

.Forecast...
Solar activity is expected to be low, with M-class flares
(R1/R2-Minor/Moderate) likely, and a slight chance for X-class
(R3-Strong) events 24-26 Nov.

Energetic Particle

.24 hr Summary...
The greater than 2 MeV electron flux was at normal to moderate levels.
The greater than 10 MeV proton flux returned to background levels.

.Forecast...
The greater than 2 MeV electron flux is expected to continue at normal
to moderate levels. The greater than 10 MeV proton flux levels are
expected to remain at background conditions on 24-26 Nov.

Solar Wind

.24 hr Summary...
Solar wind parameters reflected weak, negative polarity CH HSS
influence. Solar wind speeds ranged +/- 25 km/s of 400 km/s. Total field
was primarily 7-8 nT, and the Bz component underwent a handful of
southward deflections, reaching a minimum of -8 nT. Phi was
predominantly negative.

.Forecast...
Solar wind parameters are expected to remain slightly enhanced on 24 Nov
as negative polarity CH HSS influences persist. By 25 Nov, conditions
are expected to decrease to near background as the CH moves out of a
geoeffective position. Ambient levels are expected to return on 26 Nov.

Geospace

.24 hr Summary...
The geomagnetic field was quiet to unsettled.

.Forecast...
The geomagnetic field is expected to be quiet to unsettled, with a
chance for isolated active periods on 24 Nov due to CH HSS influence. By
25-26 Nov, mostly quiet conditions are expected to return as the CH
moves out of a geoeffective position.