Routine Space Environment Product (Daily)
Issued by NWS
Issued by NWS
391 FXXX12 KWNP 050031 DAYDIS :Product: Forecast Discussion :Issued: 2025 Nov 05 0030 UTC # Prepared by the US Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center # Product description and SWPC contact on the Web # http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/wwire.html # # Forecast Discussion # Solar Activity .24 hr Summary... Solar activity reached very high levels due to an X1.8 (R3-Strong) from Region 4274 (N24E53, Ekc/beta-gamma-delta) at 04/1734 UTC. The flare had a Type IV radio sweep as well as a Ten-flare radio burst. Dimming can be seen in GOES-19 SUVI 195 angstroms imagery as the CME lifts off. The associated partial halo CME has been modelled with a velocity between 700-800 km/s. Based on its position in the NE, the bulk of the ejecta is likely to pass behind Earth but model analysis will confirm when it becomes available. The Region continues to exhibit sheer across its intermediate region producing a complicated magnetic field. It has been the primary producer of most of the flare activity throughout the period. An additional X-flare was observed late in the period. An X1.1 peaked at 04/2201 UTC from a region beyond the ESE limb. Due to its location, any associated ejecta is not expected to have an Earth-directed component. The growth rate of Region 4273 (S12W01, Dsi/beta-gamma) has slowed produced and its produced only one C-class flare. Region 4275 (N07E61, Dao/beta-gamma) comes into better view off the limb but has been quiet. .Forecast... Probabilities have increased to 65% for R1-R2 (Minor-Moderate) and 15% for R3 (Strong) due to the continued activity and complex structure of Region 4274. Energetic Particle .24 hr Summary... The greater the 2 MeV electron flux continues to surpass the 1000 pfu threshold during the diurnal maxima but the overall trend is going down. This is due to Earth moving out of the geoeffective position with the coronal hole (CH) high speed stream (HSS) originating in the SW. The greater than 10 MeV proton flux remained at background levels. .Forecast... Electrons will continue to come down through 06 Nov as CH HSS influences wane. Expect a rise again 07 Nov as the HSS associated with the negative polarity CH crossing the central meridian becomes geoeffective. The greater than 10 MeV protons could become slightly elevated over the next 24 hours following the X-class flare but will likely remain below threshold. Solar Wind .24 hr Summary... Solar wind parameters reflecting waning HSS influences. The total interplanetary magnetic field (Bt) was between 6-8 nT with the north-south (Bz) component was -7/+6 nT. Solar wind speeds decreased from 450 km/s towards 400 km/s. The phi angle remained in the positive (away from Sun) sector. .Forecast... Solar wind parameters are likely to trend towards nominal levels 05-06 Nov. Parameters are expected to become enhanced with the arrival of the next CH HSS 06-07 Nov. There are also now three CMEs - two that left the disk 03 Nov and the one under analysis today, all from Region 4274 - that are projected to pass behind Earth with tail ends of their magnetic clouds interacting with the CH HSS. The combination of CME/HSS will produce enhanced solar wind parameters 06-07 Nov. Geospace .24 hr Summary... With waning influences from the CH HSS, the geomagnetic field has been at quiet to unsettled levels. .Forecast... The field will remain at current levels into 06 Nov. Late 06 Nov, into 07 Nov, the CH HSS coupled with potential arrivals of the aforementioned CMEs will likely produce G1 (Minor) geomagnetic storming levels with a slight chance for the G2 (Moderate) levels. Watches have been issued during these times. -Bri