Routine Space Environment Product (Daily)
Issued by NWS
Issued by NWS
350 FXXX12 KWNP 010031 DAYDIS :Product: Forecast Discussion :Issued: 2025 Jul 01 0030 UTC # Prepared by the US Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center # Product description and SWPC contact on the Web # http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/wwire.html # # Forecast Discussion # Solar Activity .24 hr Summary... Solar activity was at low levels. Regions 4122 (N12W11, Dso/beta) and 4128 (S04E26, Dao/beta) began the period producing low level C-class flares as the latter exhibited decay in its leading spots. Newly numbered 4130 (S12E68, Axx/alpha) produced multiple low level C-class flares during the second half of the period as it rotated into view onto the eastern limb. Region 4129 (N02E38, Cri/beta-gamma) developed rapidly and was thus numbered, but was overall relatively quiet. New spots were noted just southeast of AR 4128, but appeared to be in rapid decay. Additionally, new spots were observed near S17E71, but remain unnumbered at this time as we await additional imagery to perform proper analysis and classification. No Earth-directed CMEs were observed in available coronagraph imagery. .Forecast... A chance for R1-R2 (Minor-Moderate) radio blackouts due to isolated M-class flare activity will persist through 03 July. Energetic Particles .24 hr Summary... The greater than 2 MeV electron flux reached high levels with a peak flux of 8,730 pfu observed at 30/1625 UTC. The greater than 10 MeV proton flux was at background levels. .Forecast... The greater than 2 MeV electron flux will likely reach high levels on 01 July due to CH HSS effects before falling to normal to moderate levels 02-03 July. The greater than 10 MeV proton flux is expected to continue at background levels through the period. Solar Wind .24 hr Summary... Solar wind parameters reflected weakening negative polarity CH HSS influence. Total IMF strength ranged 3-7 nT and the Bz component was +/-6 nT. Solar wind speeds varied from ~430 km/s to near 500 km/s. Phi was predominantly negative while undertaking several brief excursions into the positive solar sector. .Forecast... A trend towards a more nominal solar wind environment is anticipated on 01 July. Enhancements in the IMF are likely by early to mid UTC day on 02 July with the arrival of a CME that left the Sun on 28 Jun and are anticipated to continue, although weakened, into 03 July. Geospace .24 hr Summary... The geomagnetic field was at quiet to unsettled levels. .Forecast... Quiet to unsettled conditions, with an isolated active period, are expected on 01 July under waning negative polarity CH HSS effects. G1 (Minor) geomagnetic storming is likely 02-03 July due to aforementioned CME effects.