Routine Space Environment Product (Daily)
Issued by NWS
Issued by NWS
844 FXXX12 KWNP 140031 DAYDIS :Product: Forecast Discussion :Issued: 2026 Feb 14 0030 UTC # Prepared by the US Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center # Product description and SWPC contact on the Web # http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/wwire.html # # Forecast Discussion # Solar Activity .24 hr Summary... Solar activity reached moderate levels after Region 4373 (N10W30, Cao/beta) produced an M1.0/Sf (R1-Minor) flare at 13/0858 UTC, the largest of the period. Region 4374 (N10E20, Cso/beta) developed a rudimentary trailer spot, while the remaining regions were stable. A CME associated with the M1.0 first became visible off the NW in LASCO C2 at 13/0924Z and first visible in STEREO COR2 imagery at 13/0938Z. Modeling indicates a potential arrival mid to late on 15 Feb, with the most likely possibility being an interaction with the co-rotating interaction region (CIR) ahead of the anticipated CH HSS, and the worst case scenario a possible glancing blow. No other Earth-directed CMEs were observed in coronagraph imagery. .Forecast... Solar activity is expected to be at low levels, with a slight chance for M-class (R1-R2/Minor-Moderate) flares through 16 Feb. Energetic Particle .24 hr Summary... The greater than 2 MeV electron flux reached high levels with a peak flux of 1,120 pfu observed at 13/1745 UTC. The greater than 10 MeV proton flux remained at background levels throughout the period. .Forecast... The greater than 2 MeV electron flux is expected to reach moderate to high levels on 14-16 Feb. The greater than 10 MeV proton flux is expected to continue at background levels through 16 Feb. Solar Wind .24 hr Summary... Solar wind parameters were variably enhanced under weak, negative polarity CH HSS influences possibly mixed with weak transient effects. Total magnetic field strength (Bt) ranged between 5-9 nT. The Bz (north-south) component was largely southward, with a few sustained periods of as much as -9 nT. Solar wind speeds averaged ~375 km/s at the start of the reporting period, before a sharp jump at 13/0900Z increased the average speed to ~425 km/s eventually seeing a peak of near 500 km/s by the end of the period. Phi was predominately negative until around 13/2100 UTC when it shifted into a positive orientation. .Forecast... The solar wind environment is expected to become increasingly disturbed on 14 Feb as influences from a CIR and positive polarity CH HSS begin to arrive. Weak CME influences interacting with the CIR are possible through 16 Feb as CMEs from 11 and 13 Feb pass in close proximity. Geospace .24 hr Summary... The geomagnetic field reached active levels in response to waning negative polarity CH HSS influences and possible weak transient effects. .Forecast... The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to active levels on 14 Feb as positive polarity CH HSS influences take over. Periods of G1 (Minor) storming conditions are likely on 15-16 Feb, with a chance for isolated G2 (Moderate) storming on 15 Feb, due to CIR/CH HSS effects and potential weak CME interactions as CMEs from 11 and 13 Feb pass in close proximity.