191
FXXX12 KWNP 291231
DAYDIS

:Product: Forecast Discussion
:Issued: 2025 Dec 29 1230 UTC
# Prepared by the US Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center
# Product description and SWPC contact on the Web
# http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/wwire.html
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#             Forecast Discussion
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Solar Activity

.24 hr Summary...
Solar activity was at moderate levels. Region 4325 (S09E48, Dai/beta)
produced an impulsive M1.3/Sf (R1-Minor) flare at 28/2113 UTC and an
M1.0/Sf flare at 29/0651 UTC as it exhibited fairly significant growth
throughout the period. Region 4317 (N12W43, Cao/beta) produced an
M4.2/2n flare at 28/2239 UTC, with an accompanying 300 sfu Tenflare that
peaked at 28/2231 UTC, and a C8.9/Sf flare at 0305 UTC. This region
showed signs of decay in the two largest leading spots as well as many
of its trailing spots. Region 4321 (S09W70, Dkc/beta-delta) exhibited
restructuring of its spots as it rotated towards the west limb, and
remained mostly quiet during the period. The remaining regions were
stable or showed slight decay.

A CME associated with the M4.2 flare from Region 4317 was analyzed and
indicated a possible indirect impact, arriving late on 31 Dec into early
on 01 Jan. No other Earth-directed CMEs were observed in available
satellite imagery.

.Forecast...
Solar activity is expected to be at low levels, with M-class (R1/R2
Minor-Moderate) flares likely, on 29-31 Dec due to the flare potential
of the current active regions. There is a slight chance for X-class
(R3-Strong) flares during the 3-day period.

Energetic Particle

.24 hr Summary...
The greater than 2 MeV electron flux, measured at geostationary orbit,
reached high levels with a peak flux of 8,999 pfu observed at 28/1610
UTC. The greater than 10 MeV proton flux remained at background levels
during the period.

.Forecast...
The greater than 2 MeV electron flux is expected to remained at moderate
to high levels on 29-31 Dec. The greater than 10 MeV proton flux is
expected to remain at background levels through 31 Dec, with a slight
chance for a flux above the threshold of 10 pfu due to the flaring
potential of the active regions on the visible solar disk.

Solar Wind

.24 hr Summary...
Solar wind parameters reflected near-background conditions. Wind speeds
remained fairly steady through the period from about 450-500 km/s. Total
interplanetary magnetic field strength averaged between 3-8 nT. The Bz
component ranged between +/-5 nT the first half of the period, then
turned mostly southward the second half. Phi was predominantly positive
with multiple oscillations into a neutral to weakly negative
orientation.

.Forecast...
Near background solar wind conditions are expected to prevail over 29-30
Dec. Solar wind parameters are expected to become enhanced by 31 Dec due
to influence from a recurrent negative polarity CH HSS, possibly
combined with glancing CME effects from the CME that left the Sun on 29
Dec.

Geospace

.24 hr Summary...
The geomagnetic field was quiet to unsettled.

.Forecast...
The geomagnetic field is expected to remain at mostly quiet levels, with
possible isolated unsettled periods, on 29-30 Dec. Quiet to unsettled
conditions are expected, with likely active periods late on 31 Dec due
to effects from a recurrent negative polarity CH HSS combined with
possible glancing CME effects from the CME that left the Sun on 29 Dec.