422
FXXX12 KWNP 241231
DAYDIS

:Product: Forecast Discussion
:Issued: 2026 Apr 24 1230 UTC
# Prepared by the US Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center
# Product description and SWPC contact on the Web
# http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/wwire.html
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#             Forecast Discussion
#
Solar Activity

.24 hr Summary...
Solar activity reached high levels. The most active region, Region 4419
(N15W70, Eso/beta-gamma-delta), was responsible for multiple C-class
flares, two M-class (R1-Minor) flares, and two X-class (R3-Strong)
flares. The largest events were an X2.4 flare (R3-Strong) at 24/0107 UTC
and X2.5/2b flare (R3-Strong) at 24/0813 UTC.

Associated with the first event (X2.4) were several discrete radio
bursts and a CME that appeared to have a mostly NWly trajectory.
However, subsequent modeling suggests an Earth-directed component is
possible late on 25 Apr into early on 26 Apr. The second event (X2.5)
was accompanied by Type II (est 1293 km/s) and Type IV radio sweeps, as
well as a 10cm radio burst (570 sfu). Modeling is currently underway for
this event.

Additionally, the M-class activity from Region 4419 included: an M1.7/Sf
flare at 23/1400 UTC, which had an associated CME (first seen at 23/1424
UTC), and an M4.9/1n event at 23/1708 UTC that had an additional NE CME
(first seen in GOES-19 CCOR1 at 1815 UTC). Neither of these events are
thought to have an Earth-directed component.

There are currently four numbered sunspot regions on the visible disk.
Region 4419 appeared to experience significant flux emergence in the
leading spots as it neared the solar limb. Region 4420 (N16E18,
Eki/beta-gamma-delta) exhibited growth and consolidation within the
trailing and intermediate spots, with increased shearing noted in
intermediate areas. Region 4421 (S11E32, Hsx/alpha) was stable and
unchanged. New Region 4423 (S05E37, Dao/beta-delta) was numbered as it
experienced fairly rapid growth during the period. This region produced
an M1.9 flare at 24/0907 UTC.

The CME associated with the M1.2/1f flare from 23 Apr is expected to
result in a glancing impact on 26 Apr. However, this may change if
modeling indicates the CMEs associated with the 24 Apr X-flares are fast
enough to overtake this CME.

.Forecast...
Solar activity is expected to be at moderate (R1-R2-Moderate) levels
through 26 Apr, with a chance for X-class (R3/Strong or greater) flares
primarily driven by the ongoing complexity of Regions 4419 and 4420.


Energetic Particle

.24 hr Summary...
The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit reached
high levels with a peak of 3,446 pfu at 23/1625 UTC. The greater than 10
MeV proton flux at geosynchronous orbit was at background levels.

.Forecast...
The greater than 2 MeV electron flux is expected to be at moderate to
high levels through 26 Apr. Transient flux suppressions are possible on
26 Apr from the anticipated glancing influence of the CME associated
with the M1.2/1F flare from Region 4420, as well as the possible
glancing influences of the CMEs associated with the X-flares from 24
Apr. The greater than 10 MeV proton flux is expected to remain at
background levels, though there is a chance (25%) for levels to exceed
S1 (Minor) solar radiation storm thresholds due to the flare activity of
Region 4419 as it rotates toward the western limb and Region 4420 as it
approaches central solar meridian.


Solar Wind

.24 hr Summary...
Solar wind parameters reflected near background conditions. Total
magnetic field (Bt) averaged near 4 nT, the Bz component was variable
between +/- 4 nT, and wind speeds decreased to average ~480 km/s by the
end of the period. Phi was predominantly in a negative orientation.

.Forecast...
Mild enhancements are possible in the solar wind environment beginning
late on 24 Apr due to the possible onset of a +CH HSS. Further
enhancements are anticipated on 25-26 Apr associated with the arrival of
the glancing influence from the CME originating from the M1.2/1F flare
on 23 Apr from Region 4420 and X-flares from 24 Apr.

Geospace

.24 hr Summary...
The geomagnetic field was mostly quiet with an isolated unsettled
period.

.Forecast...
The geomagnetic field is expected to be mostly quiet to unsettled on
24-25 Apr, with isolated active periods possible, as the +CH HSS moves
into a geoeffective position. Isolated G1-G2 (Minor-Moderate)
geomagnetic storming conditions are possible late on 25 Apr into early
26 Apr in response to the arrival of the glancing CMEs.