Routine Space Environment Product (Daily)
Issued by NWS
Issued by NWS
091 FXXX12 KWNP 151231 DAYDIS :Product: Forecast Discussion :Issued: 2025 May 15 1230 UTC # Prepared by the US Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center # Product description and SWPC contact on the Web # http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/wwire.html # # Forecast Discussion # Solar Activity .24 hr Summary... Solar activity was at moderate levels during the period. The majority of the flares originated from Region 4087 (N15E46, Dso/beta-gamma-delta) with the largest flare being an M4.7 at 14/1811 UTC. AR 4087 has retained a delta in its trailer portion but has been less active this period. Region 4088 (N09W49, Cro/beta) grew in spot count and area but was mostly inactive. No Earth-directed CMEs were observed. .Forecast... Given the magnetic complexity of Region 4087, theres a 65% chance that M-Class (R1-R2, Minor-Moderate) level flare activity will occur through 17 May with a 30% chance for X-Class (R3-Strong) levels during the same time. Energetic Particle .24 hr Summary... The greater than 2 MeV electron flux has been at moderate levels, nearing threshold during the diurnal maxima. The greater than 10 MeV proton flux has been at background levels. .Forecast... The enhanced electron flux within the coronal hole high (CH) high speed stream (HSS) will support the greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geostationary orbit reaching threshold 15-16 May with waning influences 17 May. With no complex active regions in the west, the greater than 10 MeV proton flux is expected to remain at background. Solar Wind .24 hr Summary... The solar wind reflected influences from the CH HSS originating from the negative polarity CH in the southwest part of the disk. The total field was between 1 to 12 nT with a variable north-south (Bz) component between -10 to 6 nT. Solar wind speeds averaged around 400 km/s with a mostly negative phi angle. .Forecast... Solar wind parameters will continue to be influenced by the CH HSS through 16 May. A CME associated with a filament eruption in the northern hemisphere is expected to pass above Earth 17 May, glancing influences will likely enhance the solar wind field during this time. Geospace .24 hr Summary... Due to the CH HSS mentioned previously, the geomagnetic field has been at quiet to active levels. .Forecast... Current conditions will continue through 15 May with the CH HSS moving out of a geoeffective position on 16 May. A glancing blow from a CME associated with a filament eruption is expected to enhance the geomagnetic field again 17 May. Active conditions are expected during this time.