393
FXXX12 KWNP 220031
DAYDIS

:Product: Forecast Discussion
:Issued: 2025 Aug 22 0030 UTC
# Prepared by the US Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center
# Product description and SWPC contact on the Web
# http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/wwire.html
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#             Forecast Discussion
#
Solar Activity

.24 hr Summary...
Solar activity was low. Region 4191 (N10E66, Hsx/alpha) produced a C3.2
flare at 21/0011 UTC, which was the largest of the period. Region 4192
(N28W28, Bxo/beta) was numbered this period, but was otherwise
unremarkable. New spots were noted on the eastern limb trailing AR 4191,
but remain unnumbered at this time as we await better viewing
conditions. Other activity included an asymmetric, halo CME first
observed in SOHO/LASCO C2 imagery at 21/0824 UTC. Although impressive,
this event was determined to have originated from the far-side of the
Sun. No Earth-directed CMEs were observed.

.Forecast...
Solar activity will likely be at low levels, with a slight
chance for M-class flares through 23 Aug due to the anticipated return
of old active regions. M-class flare probabilities increase slightly to
a chance for an isolated event, most likely from the east limb, on 24
Aug as old active regions return to view.

Energetic Particle

.24 hr Summary...
The greater than 2 MeV electron flux reached high levels with a peak
flux of 1,130 pfu at 21/1740 UTC. The greater than 10 MeV proton flux
was at background levels.

.Forecast...
The greater than 2 MeV electron flux is expected to be at moderate to
high levels through 24 Aug. The greater than 10 MeV proton flux is
expected to continue at background levels through 24 Aug given the lack
of dynamic regions.

Solar Wind

.24 hr Summary...
Solar wind parameters were in decline as HSS conditions began to wane.
Solar wind speed decreased from approximately 600 km/s to near 470 km/s
until the end of the period when they had a slight uptick to end the day
near 535 km/s. Total field ranged from 3-7 nT while the Bz component was
between +6/-4 nT. Phi angle was predominantly negative.

.Forecast...
A mildly disturbed solar wind environment is likely to continue through
22 Aug due to recurrent, negative polarity CH HSS influences. A return
to an ambient-like regime is expected on 23 Aug, continuing through 24
Aug.

Geospace

.24 hr Summary...
The geomagnetic field was quiet to unsettled.

.Forecast...
The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to unsettled levels on
22 August as CH HSS effects wane. Mostly quiet conditions are expected
on 23 and 24 Aug.