Routine Space Environment Product (Daily)
Issued by NWS
Issued by NWS
985 FXXX12 KWNP 251231 DAYDIS :Product: Forecast Discussion :Issued: 2026 Jun 25 1230 UTC # Prepared by the US Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center # Product description and SWPC contact on the Web # http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/wwire.html # # Forecast Discussion # Solar Activity .24 hr Summary... Solar activity was at low levels, with frequent C-level activity in the SE quadrant of the solar disk. The largest flare of the period was a C3.8 at 24/1441 UTC from Region 4478 (S06E68, Fkc/beta-gamma), which is the large sunspot that Solar Orbiter had been tracking across the Suns farside. This region is still suffering from foreshortening effects, so its classification is low-mod confidence. While the majority of the flaring activity this period came from 4478, Region 4475 (S09E14, Cai/beta-gamma) also produced several small C-flares as additional trailing spots began to emerge. Regions 4472 (S15W05, Axx/alpha) and 4473 (S09E06, Bxo/alpha) continued to decay throughout the period. Region 4479 (N14E51, Axx/alpha) was numbered this period. No Earth-directed CMEs were observed in available coronagraph imagery. .Forecast... Solar activity is expected to continue at predominately low levels on 25-27 Jun, with a high chance for M-flares (R1-R2/Minor-Moderate) and a slight chance for X-flares (R3/Strong), primarily due to the potential of Region 4478. Energetic Particle .24 hr Summary... The greater than 2 MeV electron flux was at normal to moderate levels. The greater than 10 MeV proton flux was at background levels. .Forecast... The greater than 2 MeV electron flux is expected to continue at normal to moderate levels over 25-27 Jun. The greater than 10 MeV proton flux is expected to persist at background levels through 27 Jun. Solar Wind .24 hr Summary... Solar wind parameters were elevated this period from a mix of negative polarity coronal hole high speed stream onset and possible minor magnetic transient influences. Total magnetic field strength (Bt) ranged between 8 and 16 nT, with a variable Bz component that had several southward deflections between -5 and -11 nT. The solar wind speed began the period averaging 350 km/s then increased sharply at ~24/0400 UTC to ~450 km/s. This was followed by another notable jump in speed beginning around 24/1700 UTC, ending the reporting period at approximately 600 km/s. Phi was predominantly negative (towards the Sun) but did have an hour-long positive interval at approximately 24/0950 UTC. .Forecast... Solar wind conditions are expected remain elevated/disturbed through 27 Jun due to the continued influence of the negative polarity CH HSS. Geospace .24 hr Summary... The geomagnetic field was initially quiet. After onset of -CH HSS influences, the geomagnetic field rose to G1 (Minor) storm levels. .Forecast... Periods of active conditions, with isolated G1 storm levels are likely on 25-27 Jun due to the negative polarity CH HSS influences.