322
FXXX12 KWNP 221231
DAYDIS

:Product: Forecast Discussion
:Issued: 2024 Nov 22 1230 UTC
# Prepared by the US Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center
# Product description and SWPC contact on the Web
# http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/wwire.html
#
#             Forecast Discussion
#
Solar Activity

.24 hr Summary...
Solar activity returned to low levels with only C-class flares observed.
Region 3901 (S07E24, Dai/beta-gamma) was responsible for nearly all of
the flare activity throughout the period, the largest of which was a C9
flare at 22/0344 UTC. This region exhibited growth in its trailing spot
area and maintained its gamma configuration. New Regions 3903 (S10W17,
Cai/beta), 3904 (S13W63, Cao/beta), and 3905 S09E77, Hax/alpha)
developed and were numbered this period. The remaining regions were
either stable or displayed slight decay.

Two large CMEs were observed in coronagraph imagery. The first was
observed in LASCO C2 imagery at approximately 21/1224 UTC. This CME was
associated with a large prominence that lifted off the SE limb. Analysis
indicated a miss well behind of Earth.

The second was a large, explosive eruption that occurred at
approximately 21/1800 UTC. This event was noted in SUVI imagery from
beyond the west limb, likely from old Region 3989 (S09, L=005). The
associated CME was first seen in LASCO C2 imagery at 21/1812 UTC. With
this event originated well beyond the west limb, it is not expected to
have an Earth-directed component.

.Forecast...
Solar activity is expected to be low, with a chance for M-class flares
(R1/R2-Minor/Moderate) and a slight chance of X-class (R3-Strong) events
22-24 Nov.

Energetic Particle

.24 hr Summary...
The greater than 2 MeV electron flux was normal to moderate levels. The
greater than 10 MeV proton flux reached S2 (Moderate) levels, reaching a
peak value of 125 pfu at 22/0355 UTC. The 100 MeV proton levels reached
a peak value of 7 pfu at 21/2010 UTC, but have since decreased well
below the 1 pfu SWPC warning threshold.

.Forecast...
The greater than 2 MeV electron flux is expected to continue at normal
to moderate levels. The greater than 10 MeV proton flux is expected to
continue at S1 (Minor) levels for 22 Nov. By 23 Nov, levels are expected
to diminish to a chance for S1 thresholds, with conditions returning to
near background levels by 24 Nov.

Solar Wind

.24 hr Summary...
Solar wind parameters were indicative of a likely SSBC as the
anticipated negative polarity CH HSS moved into a geoeffective position.
Solar wind speeds averaged near 400 km/s, total field strength ranged
between 4-10nT, and the Bz component fluctuated between +/-7 nT. The phi
angle was predominantly in a negative position, with occasional
oscillations into a positive orientation.

.Forecast...
Solar wind conditions are anticipated to become elevated on 22-24 Nov
due to negative polarity CH HSS influences.

Geospace

.24 hr Summary...
The geomagnetic field was quiet to unsettled.

.Forecast...
The geomagnetic field is expected to be mostly quiet to unsettled, with
a chance for an isolated active period, on 22-24 Nov due to anticipated
CH HSS effects.