Routine Space Environment Product (Daily)
Issued by NWS
Issued by NWS
877 FXXX12 KWNP 011231 DAYDIS :Product: Forecast Discussion :Issued: 2026 Feb 01 1230 UTC # Prepared by the US Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center # Product description and SWPC contact on the Web # http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/wwire.html # # Forecast Discussion # Solar Activity .24 hr Summary... Solar activity reached high levels with several M-class flares from Region 4366 (N14E40, Eac/beta-gamma-delta). The largest event was an M6.6 flare which peaked at 01/1002 UTC. This event was relatively impulsive, but was quickly followed by another M2.4 flare at 01/1042 UTC. No subsequent CME was observed, but investigation analysis continues as of the time of this writing and as coronagraph imagery becomes available. A new relatively large spot with apparent symmetric penumbra was observed rotating into view on the eastern limb, but remains unnumbered at this time as we await corroborating observatory reports. .Forecast... Solar activity will likely continue at moderate to high levels due to M-class flares (R1-R2 Radio Blackouts), with a slight chance for an isolated X-class flare (R3 Strong or Greater), through 03 Feb given the evolution and history of Region 4366. Energetic Particle .24 hr Summary... The greater than 2 MeV electron flux reached high levels with a peak flux of 11,110 pfu observed at 31/1725 UTC. The greater than 10 MeV proton flux was below the S1 (Minor) threshold. .Forecast... The greater than 2 MeV electron flux is expected to continue at moderate to high levels through 03 Feb. The greater than 10 MeV proton flux is expected to remain below the S1 (Minor) solar radiation storm 10 pfu threshold through 03 Feb. However, probabilities for an event begin increasing slightly on 03 Feb as Region 4366 will begin to rotate into a more favorable position for connection by that date given any significant eruptive event. Solar Wind .24 hr Summary... Solar wind parameters reflected a return to an ambient-like state.Total field ranged 3-6 nT, the Bz component was mostly near neutral with a late southward deflection reaching -4 nT, and solar wind speeds gradually fell to below 350 km/s. Phi was predominantly negative with a brief turn into the positive solar sector between 01/0240 UTC and 01/0429 UTC. .Forecast... An ambient-like regime is expected to continue through 03 Feb barring new, significant eruptive events. Geospace .24 hr Summary... Geomagnetic field activity was at quiet levels. .Forecast... Mostly quiet conditions are expected to prevail through 03 Feb while an ambient solar wind regime persists.