416
FXXX12 KWNP 091231
DAYDIS

:Product: Forecast Discussion
:Issued: 2024 Nov 09 1230 UTC
# Prepared by the US Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center
# Product description and SWPC contact on the Web
# http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/wwire.html
#
#             Forecast Discussion
#
Solar Activity

.24 hr Summary...
Solar activity declined to low levels. Region 3889 (S09E47,
Eki/beta-gamma-delta) produced the strongest flare of the period, a
C7.4/Sf at 08/0008 UTC. Minor growth was observed in its trailer spots.
Regions 3886 (S07E03, Eai/beta) and 3883 (S06E20, Fkc/beta-gamma-delta)
were both in decay. The remaining regions on the visible disk were
mostly stable. No Earth-directed CMEs were observed in available
coronagraph imagery.

.Forecast...
M-class flares (R1/R2-Minor/Moderate) are likely, with a slight chance
for X-class flares (R3-Strong), over 09-11 Nov.

Energetic Particle

.24 hr Summary...
The greater than 10 MeV proton flux was at background levels and the
greater than 2 MeV electron flux was at normal to moderate levels.

.Forecast...
There is a slight chance for the greater than 10 MeV proton flux to
reach S1 (Minor) levels over 09-11 Nov. The greater than 2 MeV electron
flux is expected to continue at normal to moderate levels through 11
Nov.

Solar Wind

.24 hr Summary...
The solar wind environment was enhanced this period. Total magnetic
field strength ranged between 8-17 nT and the Bz component was sustained
southward, by as much as -12 nT, through most of the reporting period.
Solar wind speeds varied between 350-450 km/s, with speeds near 400 km/s
by the periods end.

.Forecast...
Enhanced solar wind conditions are expected to prevail over 09-11 Nov
due to CH HSS influences.

Geospace

.24 hr Summary...
The geomagnetic field ranged from quiet to G1 (Minor) geomagnetic storm
levels.

.Forecast...
The geomagnetic field is likely to observe G1 (Minor) conditions on 09
Nov as well as active levels 10-11 Nov due to anticipated CH HSS
influences.