Routine Space Environment Product (Daily)
Issued by NWS
Issued by NWS
268 FXXX12 KWNP 240031 DAYDIS :Product: Forecast Discussion :Issued: 2025 Jun 24 0030 UTC # Prepared by the US Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center # Product description and SWPC contact on the Web # http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/wwire.html # # Forecast Discussion # Solar Activity .24 hr Summary... Solar activity was at low levels. Region 4115 (N21W80, Hsx/alpha) produced a C5.0 flare at 23/1223 UTC, which was the largest event of the period. Regions 4117 (S13W03, Dsi/beta) and 4118 (S12E08, Dai/beta-gamma) remained the largest spot groups on the visible disk with the latter developing a weak gamma configuration. Regions 4119 (S26W03, Bxo/beta), 4120 (N06E04, Bxo/beta) and 4121 (S12E25, Bxo/beta) all emerged relatively rapidly this period, were numbered, but were otherwise unremarkable. New, simple spots were also noted near N16E54, but remain unnumbered at this time given a lack of development. No Earth-directed CMEs were observed in available coronagraph imagery. .Forecast... A chance for R1-R2 (Minor-Moderate) radio blackouts, with a slight chance for X-class flares (R3-Strong), will persist through 26 June. Energetic Particle .24 hr Summary... The greater than 2 MeV electron flux reached high levels with a peak flux of 1,270 pfu at 23/1520 UTC. The greater than 10 MeV proton flux was at background levels. .Forecast... The greater than 2 MeV electron flux is expected to reach moderate levels through 26 June with a chance for high levels on 24 June. There remains a slight chance for the greater than 10 MeV protons to become elevated through 26 June primarily due to the eruptive potential of Regions 4114 and 4115 as they transit the western limb followed by Regions 4117 and 4118 rotating into a favorable geoeffective location. Solar Wind .24 hr Summary... Solar wind parameters continued to reflect a positive polarity CH HSS regime. Total field ranged 3-7 nT and the Bz component was +/- 5 nT. Solar wind speeds gradually decreased from ~500 km/s to near 400 km/s over the course of the period. Phi was predominantly in the positive solar sector. .Forecast... Gradually waning positive polarity CH HSS influence is expected to continue on 24 June. An enhanced solar wind regime is expected to return on 25 June and continue into 26 June due to recurrent, negative polarity CH HSS onset. Geospace .24 hr Summary... The geomagnetic field was at quiet to unsettled levels. .Forecast... The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to active levels on 24 June under diminishing positive polarity CH HSS effects. G1-G2 (Minor-Moderate) geomagnetic storming is likely 25-26 June due to recurrent, negative polarity CH HSS effects.