213
FXXX12 KWNP 090031
DAYDIS

:Product: Forecast Discussion
:Issued: 2025 Aug 09 0030 UTC
# Prepared by the US Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center
# Product description and SWPC contact on the Web
# http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/wwire.html
#
#             Forecast Discussion
#
Solar Activity

.24 hr Summary...
Solar activity reached moderate levels following an M2.8 (R1-Minor)
flare at 08/0353 UTC from Region 4168 (N05W51, Eki/beta-gamma-delta),
the strongest event of the period. The region remained the largest and
most complex on the visible disk and continued to evolve over the past
24 hours. Growth was also observed was in Region 4172 (N08E25,
Eai/beta-gamma). A new region of emerging flux was noted near center
disk and will be assigned an active region number if it persists. The
other numbered active regions were either mostly stable or only
exhibited minor changes. No Earth-directed CMEs were observed in
available coronagraph imagery.

.Forecast...
Solar activity is likely to continue at moderate levels
(R1-R2/Minor-Moderate), with a slight chance for R3 (Strong) events,
over 09-11 Aug. Elevated probabilities are due primarily to the
complexity of Regions 4168 and 4172.

Energetic Particle

.24 hr Summary...
The greater than 2 MeV electron flux was at normal to moderate levels
and the greater than 10 MeV proton flux was at background levels.

.Forecast...
The greater than 2 MeV electron flux is expected to continue at moderate
levels, with a chance to reach high, over 09-11 Aug. There exists a
slight chance for the greater than 10 MeV proton flux to reach S1
(Minor) levels over 09-11 Aug.

Solar Wind

.24 hr Summary...
Solar wind parameters were enhanced with what is likely the onset of a
positive polarity CH HSS, with potential embedded transient influence
from a CME that left the Sun on 05 Aug. Total magnetic field strength
reached a peak of 17 nT and the Bz component reached as far south as -15
nT. Solar wind speeds increased from ~330 km/s to ~550 km/s. Phi angle
was primarily oriented in the positive solar sector.

.Forecast...
Enhancements in the solar wind are likely to continue over the next
three days (09-11 Aug) under the influence of a positive polarity CH
HSS, with an additional enhancement possible on 09-10 Aug due to
possible weak interaction with the periphery of a CME that left the Sun
on 07 Aug.

Geospace

.24 hr Summary...
The geomagnetic field reached G1 (Minor) geomagnetic storm levels.

.Forecast...
The geomagnetic field is expected to remain elevated (up to G1-Minor)
due to influence from both a positive polarity CH HSS and CME influence
from a solar event on 05 Aug. A decrease to active levels is forecast
for 10-11 Aug during the HSS.