Routine Space Environment Product (Daily)
Issued by NWS
Issued by NWS
164 FXXX12 KWNP 230031 DAYDIS :Product: Forecast Discussion :Issued: 2026 Jan 23 0030 UTC # Prepared by the US Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center # Product description and SWPC contact on the Web # http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/wwire.html # # Forecast Discussion # Solar Activity .24 hr Summary... Solar activity was at low levels. C-class flaring was observed from Regions 4342 (N14W31, Dsi/beta), 4345 (S17W28, Eai/beta-gamma), 4351 (S05E07, Dai/beta), and 4353 (N17E10, Dri/beta). The largest flare was a C9.5 at 22/1954 UTC. Slight growth was observed in Regions 4348 (S17W59, Cro/beta), 4351 and new Regions 4353 and 4354 (S13E13, Bxo/beta). Slight decay was observed in Regions 4341 (S11W35, Cai/beta), 4342, and 4345. No Earth-directed CMEs were observed. .Forecast... Solar activity is likely (60%) to be at moderate (R1/R2, Minor/Moderate) levels, with a slight chance (15%) for X-class flares (R3-Strong) on 23-25 Jan, primarily due to the magnetic potential of Regions 4341, 4342, 4345, and 4351. Energetic Particle .24 hr Summary... The greater than 2 MeV electron flux reached high levels with a peak flux of 5,365 pfu observed at 22/1420 UTC. The greater than 10 MeV proton flux event that began at 18/2255 UTC, reached a maximum of 37,000 pfu (S4-Severe) at 19/1915 UTC, ended at 22/0545 UTC. .Forecast... The greater than 2 MeV electron flux is expected to reach high levels on 23-25 Jan. The greater than 10 MeV proton enhancement is expected to continue to decline towards background levels over 23-25 Jan. Solar Wind .24 hr Summary... Solar wind parameters reflected high speed stream activity. Solar wind speed decreased from approximately 640 km/s to near 500 km/s. Total field ranged from 6-11 nT while the Bz component was between +8/-7 nT - with a sustained period of -6 to -7 nT at the end of the period. Phi angle was mostly positive with a deviation into the negative sector between 22/0805-1706 UTC. .Forecast... Solar wind parameters are expected to gradually diminish with possible intermittent connections with the positive polarity CH HSS over 23-25 Jan. Geospace .24 hr Summary... The geomagnetic field was at quiet to G1 (Minor) storm levels due to a period of sustained southward Bz at the end of the summary period. .Forecast... The geomagnetic field is expected to be at unsettled to G2 (Moderate) levels on 23 Jan as HSS activity persists. Quiet to unsettled levels are expected on 24-25 Jan as HSS activity gradually wanes.