Routine Space Environment Product (Daily)
Issued by NWS
Issued by NWS
232 FXXX12 KWNP 040031 DAYDIS :Product: Forecast Discussion :Issued: 2025 Aug 04 0030 UTC # Prepared by the US Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center # Product description and SWPC contact on the Web # http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/wwire.html # # Forecast Discussion # Solar Activity .24 hr Summary... Solar activity reached moderate levels following an impulsive M2.9/1b flare at 03/1357 UTC from Region 4168 (N05E15, Dai/beta-gamma-delta). This region continued to exhibit slight growth, mainly in its intermediate spots, and developed a small delta configuration. It added multiple C-class flares as well. Region 4157 (S21W79, Hrx/alpha) produced a C6.8 flare at 03/2156 UTC as it rotated near the SW limb. Region 4167 (N11W45, Dki/beta-gamma-delta) also picked up a weak delta signature, despite starting to lose some of its intermediate and trailer spots. It added a few low-level C-class flares during the period. The other spotted active regions on the visible disk were either stable or in gradual decay. From approximately 03/0215-0400 UTC, GONG H-alpha and GOES-19 SUVI satellites observed an approximately 13 long solar filament, centered near N31E08, lifting off the Sun. Currently, no evidence of a CME are noted in either CCOR-1 or STEREO coronagraph imagery. Due to a current outage, there are no SOHO LASCO coronagraph images available. No Earth-directed CMEs were observed in available coronagraph imagery. .Forecast... Solar activity is expected to be low with a chance for M-class flares (R1-R2/Minor-Moderate) over 04-06 Aug. Energetic Particle .24 hr Summary... The greater than 2 MeV electron flux remained at moderate levels. The greater than 10 MeV proton flux was steady at background levels through the period. .Forecast... The greater than 2 MeV electron flux is expected to be at moderate levels on 04-06 Aug. The greater than 10 MeV proton flux is expected to continue at background levels over 04-06 Aug. Solar Wind .24 hr Summary... The solar wind environment was at near-background levels until around 03/1700 UTC. Total magnetic field strength averaged around 7 nT, the Bz component mainly fluctuated between +/- 5 nT, with a few southward deviations to -7 nT, and solar winds decreased to just above 400 km/s. Just before 03/1700 UTC, a weak enhancement was observed in the solar wind parameters. Total field slightly increased to peak near 9 nT while Bz saw a southward deflection to -9 nT. Wind speeds began climbing back up from 400 km/s to near 575 km/s. Phi angle was predominantly oriented in the negative solar sector. .Forecast... Solar wind parameters are expected to remain slightly elevated on 04 Aug. Additional disturbances are likely on 05-06 Aug as a negative polarity CH HSS moves into a geoeffective position. Geospace .24 hr Summary... The geomagnetic field was at quiet to active levels. .Forecast... Quiet to unsettled levels, with isolated active periods are expected on 04-05 Aug, due to the anticipated influence from another negative polarity CH HSS. Conditions are expected to slowly diminish by 06 Aug as CH HSS influence weakens.