693
FXXX12 KWNP 270031
DAYDIS

:Product: Forecast Discussion
:Issued: 2026 Apr 27 0030 UTC
# Prepared by the US Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center
# Product description and SWPC contact on the Web
# http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/wwire.html
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#             Forecast Discussion
#
Solar Activity

.24 hr Summary...
Solar activity was at moderate levels during the reporting period.
Regions 4420 (N16W16, Fkc/beta-gamma-delta) and 4425 (N05E50,
Esc/beta-gamma-delta) were the primary drivers of activity, each
producing three M-class (R1-R2/Minor-Moderate) and several C-class
flares. Region 4424 (N17E19, Dsi/beta) also contributed with C-class
flaring. The largest event of the period was an M6.0 (R2) flare from
Region 4420 at 26/2257 UTC. Associated with the event was Tenflare (260
sfu). Further coronagraph imagery is need to determine if a CME was
produced alongside the flare.

There are currently seven numbered regions on the visible disk. Region
4420 became more active during the period, exhibiting significant
evolution; early observations showed trailing spot fragmentation and
shear in the trailing spots and then significant flux emergence in the
leading spots later in the period. Region 4423 (S06E04, Dso/beta) is in
decay with notable cancellation in its intermediary spots and the loss
of its mixed magnetic configuration. Region 4424 showed growth and
consolidation, especially in its trailing spot. Region 4425 continued to
grow with new flux emergence and consolidation in its intermediate
spots. The region appears to have developed a couple of delta
configurations, though foreshortening continues to complicate full
characterization. All other regions were stable or in slight decay.

.Forecast...
Solar activity is likely to reach moderate levels
(R1/R2-Minor/Moderate), with a slight chance for X-class (R3/Strong or
greater) flares, through 29 Apr due primarily to the complexity of
regions 4420, 4424, and 4425.


Energetic Particle

.24 hr Summary...
The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit was at low
to moderate levels with a peak of 573 pfu at 26/1700 UTC. The greater
than 10 MeV proton flux at geosynchronous orbit was at background
levels.

.Forecast...
The greater than 2 MeV electron flux is anticipated to reach high levels
27 Apr under the waning influence of a positive polarity coronal hole
high speed stream (+CH HSS) before returning to moderate levels 28-29
Apr The greater than 10 MeV proton flux is expected to remain at
background levels 27-29 Apr.


Solar Wind

.24 hr Summary...
Solar wind parameters were largely indicative of +CH HSS regime for the
majority of the period. Total magnetic field (Bt) averaged approximately
8 nT, with a peak of 14.5 nT. The north-south (Bz) component was
variable, with deflections ranging from -14 nT to +12 nT. By the end of
the period; however, total magnetic field had decreased to around 5 nT.
Solar wind speeds were generally elevated, averaging near 455 km/s. Two
sector boundary crossings were observed late in the period, between
approximately 26/1800 UTC and 26/2000 UTC, as indicated by rapid
fluctuations in the phi angle, that were accompanied by enhancements in
density. Following these crossings, the phi angle transitioned into the
negative (towards the Sun) sector, where it remained for the end of the
reporting period.

.Forecast...
Further enhancements in the solar wind environment are anticipated on
27 Apr due to waning +CH HSS influence alongside possible glancing
influences from CMEs that departed the Sun on 24 Apr. Solar wind
parameters are expected to return to near-background levels by 28 Apr
before further enhancements are possible late on 29 Apr due to the
arrival of a compression region ahead of a -CH HSS.

Geospace

.24 hr Summary...
The geomagnetic field was quiet to active.

.Forecast...
Active periods are likely on 27 Apr as +CH HSS influences gradually
wane. A return to mostly quiet conditions, with possible isolated
unsettled levels, is expected by 28 Apr. Unsettled conditions are
possible late on 29 Apr with the arrival of the compression region ahead
of an anticipated -CH HSS.