Routine Space Environment Product (Daily)
Issued by NWS
Issued by NWS
493 FXXX12 KWNP 261231 DAYDIS :Product: Forecast Discussion :Issued: 2026 Jul 26 1230 UTC # Prepared by the US Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center # Product description and SWPC contact on the Web # http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/wwire.html # # Forecast Discussion # Solar Activity .24 hr Summary... Solar activity was low, with background flux hovering near C-level. The largest flare of the period was a C4.2 from Region 4495 (S02W06, Axx/alpha) at 0731 UTC. Emerging flux was noted around this region and Region 4494 (S04E05, Dac/beta-delta). Region 4496 (N05E40, Dao/beta) showed decay in the intermediate spots, but produced the second largest flare of the period, a C2.0 at 0525 UTC. The remaining regions were stable. No new Earth-directed CMEs were observed in available coronagraph imagery. .Forecast... Solar activity is expected to remain low, with a decreasing chance for M-class (R1-R2; Minor-Moderate) flares through 28 Jul. Energetic Particle .24 hr Summary... The greater than 2 MeV electron flux had isolated crossings of the 1,000 pfu threshold (peak of 1,064 pfu at 25/2010 UTC), but never maintained enough consistent readings to warrant issuing an alert. The greater than 10 MeV proton flux was at background values. .Forecast... There is a chance that the 2 MeV electron flux could reach high levels on 26 Jul in response to CH HSS effects, with a return to moderate levels likely by 27-28 Jul. The greater than 10 MeV proton flux is expected to remain at background throughout the period. Solar Wind .24 hr Summary... Solar wind conditions suggested continued weakening CH HSS effects. The total IMF strength remained at or below 5nT. The Bz component varied between negative and positive throughout the period. Solar wind speed continued to gradually decrease from about 556 km/s to 461 km/s. The phi angle was mainly in a negative sector. .Forecast... The solar wind environment is expected to return to background conditions through 26 Jul. Enhancements in the solar wind parameters are likely on 27 Jul with the weak, flanking influences of a CME from 24 Jul. Continued elevated enhancements are likely early on 28 Jul as CME effects fade. Geospace .24 hr Summary... The geomagnetic field was quiet in response to the solar wind environment. .Forecast... Mostly quiet conditions are expected on 26. The weak CME influences anticipated on 27 Jul should bring active conditions and a chance for G1 (Minor) storm levels, with conditions likely lasting into 28 Jul.