Routine Space Environment Product (Daily)
Issued by NWS
Issued by NWS
105 FXXX12 KWNP 241231 DAYDIS :Product: Forecast Discussion :Issued: 2025 May 24 1230 UTC # Prepared by the US Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center # Product description and SWPC contact on the Web # http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/wwire.html # # Forecast Discussion # Solar Activity .24 hr Summary... Solar activity was at low levels due to several C-class flares. Region 4098 (S05W34, Dai/beta) grew slightly, adding a few intermediate spots, and produced the largest flare of the period, a C5.9 flare at 24/1032 UTC. The remaining regions were stable or in decay. Around 23/1700 UTC, a halo CME appeared in coronagraph imagery. Based on STEREO-A COR2 imagery, and lack of clear evidence of a source on the Earth-facing side of the disk, the event appears to be far-sided. No Earth-directed CMEs were observed in available coronagraph imagery. .Forecast... Solar flare activity is expected to remain at low levels with a chance for M-class flares (R1/R2 - Minor/Moderate radio blackouts) through 26 May. Energetic Particle .24 hr Summary... The greater than 2 MeV electron flux reached high levels with a peak of 1,707 pfu at 23/1710 UTC. The greater than 10 MeV proton flux has been at background levels. .Forecast... The greater than 2 MeV electron flux is expected to reach high levels through 26 May as positive polarity CH HSS influence persists. The greater than 10 MeV proton flux is expected to remain at background levels through 26 May. Solar Wind .24 hr Summary... Solar wind parameters remained slightly enhanced under lingering HSS influence. Solar wind speed ranged decreased from ~475 km/s down to around 385 km/s by the end of the period. Total field averaged around 7 nT while the Bz component was between +/-6 nT. Phi angle was mostly positive. .Forecast... Solar wind parameters are expected to remain enhanced through 26 May with some fluctuation in solar wind speed as a large positive polarity CH HSS continues to dominate the near-Earth environment. Further enhancements are possible on 24 May with glancing influences from the 18 May CME. Geospace .24 hr Summary... The geomagnetic field has been at quiet levels. .Forecast... Quiet to unsettled conditions are expected, with isolated active periods likely, through 26 May due to continued effects from a positive polarity CH HSS stream and possible weak effects from the arrival of a CME that left the Sun on 18 May.