327
FXXX12 KWNP 230031
DAYDIS

:Product: Forecast Discussion
:Issued: 2024 Nov 23 0030 UTC
# Prepared by the US Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center
# Product description and SWPC contact on the Web
# http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/wwire.html
#
#             Forecast Discussion
#
Solar Activity

.24 hr Summary...
Solar activity returned to moderate levels with two M-class flares
observed. The first, an impulsive M1.6/1n flare at 22/1546 UTC, was from
Region 3905 (S09E64, Dao/beta-gamma). This region added several
low-to-mid-level C-class flares as it rotated further onto the visible
disk.

Newly numbered Region 3906 (S16E73, Dao/beta) added the second flare, an
M1.0 event at 22/2215 UTC, as it made its way further onto the visible
disk. Region 3901 (S08E08, Cao/beta-gamma) continued to produce C-class
flare activity, the largest of which was a C9.0 flare at 22/0344 UTC.
This region exhibited consolidation in the larger trailing spots with
slight decay noted in its intermediate spot area. Regions 3900 (N22E06,
Cao/beta), 3901, 3903 (S11W31, Dao/beta-gamma), 3904 (S14W77, Cao/beta),
and 3905, all exhibited growth throughout the period. The remaining
regions were either stable or displayed slight decay.

No Earth-directed CMEs were observed in coronagraph imagery.

.Forecast...
Solar activity is expected to be low, with M-class flares
(R1/R2-Minor/Moderate) likely, and a slight chance for X-class
(R3-Strong) events 23-25 Nov.

Energetic Particle

.24 hr Summary...
The greater than 2 MeV electron flux was at normal to moderate levels.
The greater than 10 MeV proton flux reached S2 (Moderate) levels,
reached a peak value of 125 pfu at 22/0355 UTC, and decreased below the
S1 (Minor) threshold at 22/1845 UTC. The 100 MeV proton levels reached a
peak value of 7 pfu at 21/2010 UTC, but have since decreased well below
the 1 pfu SWPC warning threshold.

.Forecast...
The greater than 2 MeV electron flux is expected to continue at normal
to moderate levels. A slight chance remains for the greater than 10 MeV
proton flux to see S1 (Minor) levels very early on 23 Nov, but
conditions are then expected to diminish, returning to background
conditions on 24-25 Nov.

Solar Wind

.24 hr Summary...
Solar wind parameters reflected weak, negative polarity CH HSS
influence. Solar wind speeds were between 370-430 km/s, total field
strength averaged near 8 nT, and the Bz component fluctuated between
+/-8 nT. The phi angle was predominantly in a negative position, with
occasional oscillations into a positive orientation the first half of
the period.

.Forecast...
Elevated solar wind conditions are expected to persist on 23-24 Nov
due to negative polarity CH HSS influences. Near background conditions
are then expected to return on 25 Nov as the CH moves out of a
geoeffective position.

Geospace

.24 hr Summary...
The geomagnetic field was quiet to unsettled, with an isolated active
period.

.Forecast...
The geomagnetic field is expected to be mostly quiet to unsettled, with
a chance for isolated active periods, on 23-24 Nov due to CH HSS
influence. By 25 Nov, quiet to unsettled conditions are expected to
return as the CH moves out of a geoeffective position.