Routine Space Environment Product (Daily)
Issued by NWS
Issued by NWS
157 FXXX12 KWNP 021231 DAYDIS :Product: Forecast Discussion :Issued: 2025 Sep 02 1230 UTC # Prepared by the US Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center # Product description and SWPC contact on the Web # http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/wwire.html # # Forecast Discussion # Solar Activity .24 hr Summary... Solar activity was at low levels, with only C-flare activity observed. Region 4197 (S18W44, Ehi/beta-gamma) produced a C3.9 flare at 01/1922 UTC as it increased slightly in length while undergoing minor decay in its intermediate area. Region 4199 (N04W29, Cai/beta) decreased slightly in area and remained relatively quiet. Region 4207 (N30E46, Eso/beta) rotated into better viewing conditions revealing trailing spots, but remained relatively quiet as well. New spots were noted near N18W34 and was numbered as new Region 4209 (Bxo/beta). No Earth-directed CMEs were observed in available coronagraph imagery. .Forecast... M-class flares (R1-R2/Minor-Moderate) are likely, with a slight chance for an X-class flare (R3-Strong or greater), through 04 Sep primarily due to the flare potential exhibited from AR 4197. Energetic Particle .24 hr Summary... The greater than 2 MeV electron flux was at normal to moderate levels. The greater than 10 MeV proton flux gradually increased to peak flux of 6.47 pfu at 01/1010 UTC before slowly dissipating to below 1 pfu on 02 Sep. .Forecast... The greater than 2 MeV electron flux is expected to be at normal to moderate levels on 02 and 04 Sep with a chance for high levels on 03 Sep due to CME influences. There is a slight chance for a greater than 10 MeV proton event reaching the S1 (Minor) levels on 02-04 Sep with a large event from AR 4197 being the most likely threat. Solar Wind .24 hr Summary... Solar wind conditions were nominal overall with some weak negative polarity CH HSS influences until approximately 01/2025 UTC with the arrival of what was likely the 30 Aug CME. Total field increased to peaks ranging from 20-27 nT. The Bz component was mostly oriented northward with brief deflections southward of -14 to -23 nT. Solar wind speeds abruptly increased to roughly 600-675 km/s before decreasing to near 560 km/s. Phi was predominantly oriented in the negative solar sector with a deflection into a positive sector at 02/0320-0830 UTC. .Forecast... Enhancements in the solar wind environment are expected to continue through 02 Sep due to CME influences before beginning a waning trend on 03-04 Sep. Geospace .24 hr Summary... The geomagnetic field reached G2 (Moderate) geomagnetic storming levels late in the period on 01 Sep with a deviation of 58 nT reported at the Canberra magnetometer site at 01/2101 UTC. Active to G1 (Minor) storming was observed thereafter. .Forecast... G1-G3 (Minor-Strong) geomagnetic storming periods are likely on 02 Sep as CME effects persist. Unsettled to active conditions are expected on 03 Sep as CME effects begin to wane with quiet to unsettled periods on 04 Sep.