Routine Space Environment Product (Daily)
Issued by NWS
Issued by NWS
099 FXXX12 KWNP 041231 DAYDIS :Product: Forecast Discussion :Issued: 2025 Jul 04 1230 UTC # Prepared by the US Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center # Product description and SWPC contact on the Web # http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/wwire.html # # Forecast Discussion # Solar Activity .24 hr Summary... Solar activity was at low levels with C-class flare activity observed. Region 4129 (N02W09, Dai/beta) increased in size and spot count and Region 4130 (S10E24, Bxo/beta) reemerged with spots this period. Region 4127 (S19W26, Dao/beta), the largest on the disk, began to show signs of decay. The remaining five active regions were either stable or in decay. No Earth-directed CMEs were detected in available imagery. .Forecast... Solar activity is expected to be low with a slight chance for R1-R2 (Minor-Moderate) radio blackouts over 04-06 Jul. Energetic Particle .24 hr Summary... The greater than 2 MeV electron flux reached high levels with a peak flux of 1,220 pfu observed at 03/1435 UTC. The greater than 10 MeV proton flux was at background levels. .Forecast... The greater than 2 MeV electron flux is expected to continue at high levels over 04-06 Jul. The greater than 10 MeV proton flux is expected to persist at background levels through 06 Jul. Solar Wind .24 hr Summary... Solar wind parameters reflected waning CME influences during the period. The total magnetic field strength steadily decreased from a peak of 14 nT to approximately 8 nT. The Bz component briefly reached -13 nT early in the period, followed by a predominately northward orientation between 03/1230-1700 UTC. A sustained southward Bz was observed between 03/1730-04/0430 UTC, reaching as low as -9 nT. Solar wind speeds gradually declined from ~405 km/s to around 350 km/s by the end of the period. The phi angle remained negative throughout the period. .Forecast... Solar wind parameters are expected to remain mildly elevated over 04-06 Jul as residual CME influences subside and are followed by negative polarity CH HSS influences. Geospace .24 hr Summary... The geomagnetic field reached active levels in response to waning CME influences. .Forecast... The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to unsettled levels, with a chance for active levels, on 04 Jul due to residual CME effects. Quiet to unsettled levels are expected to prevail over 05-06 Jul in response to negative polarity CH HSS influences.