Routine Space Environment Product (Daily)
Issued by NWS
Issued by NWS
729 FXXX12 KWNP 231231 DAYDIS :Product: Forecast Discussion :Issued: 2026 Jul 23 1230 UTC # Prepared by the US Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center # Product description and SWPC contact on the Web # http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/wwire.html # # Forecast Discussion # Solar Activity .24 hr Summary... Solar activity was at low levels with Region 4493 (N06W25, Eki/beta-gamma-delta) producing the majority of the C-class events. The largest flare was a C5.4 at 22/1851 UTC. Slight growth was observed in the intermediate area of AR 4493 with intermittent delta magnetic configurations occurring within its leading and trailing spots. Umbral separation was observed in the leader spot of AR 4492 (N16E27, Hhx/alpha). A CME was observed off the SW limb at 22/0635 UTC associated with a filament eruption near S45W25. Modelling did not show any Earth-directed component. The filament eruption NW of Region 4493 at 21/1045 UTC was assessed to be at least partially Earth-directed. While modeling efforts suggest that a bulk of the material should pass north and ahead of Earths orbit, this is low confidence given the faintness of this event in Sun-Earth line focused coronagraph imagery and compounded by likely interaction with the coronal hole in the vicinity of the source location. .Forecast... Additional M-class flare activity (R1-R2 radio blackouts) is likely through 25 July primarily due to the flare potential currently exhibited by AR 4493. Energetic Particle .24 hr Summary... The greater than 2 MeV electron flux was at normal to moderate levels. The greater than 10 MeV proton flux was steady at background levels. .Forecast... The greater than 2 MeV electron flux is expected to remain at normal to moderate levels through 24 Jul with a chance for high levels returning on 25 Jul with post high speed stream and possible CME effects. The greater than 10 MeV proton flux is expected to continue at background levels through 25 Jul with a 5% chance for an S1 or greater event primarily due to the event potential of AR 4493. Solar Wind .24 hr Summary... Solar wind parameters continued under negative polarity CH HSS conditions with possible weak transient activity. Solar wind speed increased from approximately 400 km/s to near 600 km/s. Total field ranged from 2-11 nT while the Bz component was between +9/-6 nT. Phi angle was variable until 23/0145 UTC when it settled into a mostly negative sector. .Forecast... The current regime is expected to largely continue through 25 Jul. Additional enhancements are possible beginning late 23 Jul due to a CME that left the Sun on 20 Jul with stronger enhancements arriving by early on 24 Jul with the arrival of the aforementioned CME event from 21 Jul. Geospace .24 hr Summary... The geomagnetic field was quiet to unsettled. .Forecast... Quiet to active conditions are expected through 24 Jul under negative polarity CH HSS effects combined with the anticipated arrival of CMEs that left the Sun on 20 and 21 July beginning late day one (23 Jul). G1 (Minor) geomagnetic storming is likely on 24 Jul if the latter of the two events arrives at Earth. Again, modeling suggests that a bulk of the material from this event should pass north and ahead of Earth, but higher levels of geomagnetic storming (25% for G2 or greater) cannot be ruled out if this event is indeed more Earth-directed than predicted.